(Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

AUBURN — By the time this newsletter comes out, I’ll be in an airport.

After five straight home games and a road trip to Athens, this weekend will start a travel-heavy stretch for The Observer. I’ll go to Missouri and back this weekend for Auburn football. It’ll be Kentucky and back next weekend.

Soon after that, Auburn basketball season will be underway. The first trip of that campaign will be to Houston and back in a weekend.

Some people hate travel. I love it. I didn’t get to fly much growing up, as we had a huge family and didn’t have a lot of money. Getting to experience places, both new and familiar, and truly get the feeling of what college sports is all about in-person is one of my favorite parts about this job.

And, since this is an independent outlet, I don’t get reimbursed for my travel. Going all over the place to cover the Tigers is only possible because of subscribers like you, from the Day 1s to the people who signed up just the week. You make one of my favorite parts of this job possible, and there’s never been a single worry financially because of your support.

As I say every year, I hope that what I produce while traveling for Auburn basketball and football is worth your investment. I really want to provide the best analysis and insight possible, and I think that can only happen by showing up.

So, from the bottom of my heart, thank you. I’m glad you’re all along for the ride(s).

In this week’s mailbag, we discuss Auburn football’s hopes of a turnaround, Jarquez Hunter’s involvement, plenty of preseason basketball chatter, and a whole lot more.

Let’s go.

Auburn’s season is looking more and more like “decent team with decent-to-good metrics doesn’t see those numbers translate to wins.”

I don’t want to get into “winning culture,” but is there a precedent for those teams having breakout seasons the next year?

This is a follow up to your “progression/regression to the mean” section a little while back. Do teams “progress to the mean” over the span of seasons?

Patrick

I view winning and losing as a cultural issue sometimes. How does a losing culture learn to win?

James

I love the contrast between these two questions. It’s a real “inside you, there are two wolves” situation.

But, in all seriousness, I think they’re both great and valid ones. Barring some sort of wild turnaround, Auburn is likely going to finish with a losing record — or just scrape into a bowl game at 6-6.

Even with the improvements we’ve seen at times this season, like a more explosive offense or an increase in talent level on defense, it’s not translating to wins. Auburn has failed to execute in clutch, game-defining situations over and over again, dating back to last year’s Iron Bowl meltdown.

It’s fair to question Hugh Freeze and his staff for that. Auburn has improved talent and is doing some things on the field better. But why is all of that not mattering in the most important area: The scoreboard? Why do the Tigers keep struggling to finish off games or take advantage of positive situations? The coaches are getting paid lots of money to figure that out, and they know that.

Let’s dive deeper into Patrick’s question. A couple of weeks ago, we looked at how teams that move the ball with strong yards per play marks don’t always turn that into scoring. What about teams who have similar gaps between their on-field metrics and their win-loss records?

To answer this, I looked back at some recent F+ ratings from Brian Fremeau. F+ combines Fremeau’s own ratings system with Bill Connelly’s SP+. (Why am I using this instead of SP+ alone? Because F+ isn’t behind a paywall, making it easier for me to link to it for you guys.)

Right now, Auburn is No. 33 in F+ with a 2-4 record. If what it did in the first half of the season — decent play in analytics terms that doesn’t translate to wins — carries over to the second half of the season, Auburn would likely be a top-40ish team with an underwhelming final record.

Let’s start with some post-COVID teams. In 2021, Iowa State, Tennessee, Penn State and Auburn were all top-25 teams in F+ that finished either 7-6 or 6-7. Tennessee and Penn State turned that into 11-2 records in 2022. Auburn and Iowa State both had losing campaigns.

Additionally, Texas, LSU and Nebraska were all top-45 teams that finished with losing records in 2021. In 2022, Texas went 8-5 and finished seventh in F+. (Keep that in mind.) LSU hired Brian Kelly and went 10-4. Nebraska, meanwhile, went 4-8 and fired Scott Frost early in the season. As you can see, 2021-to-2022 was a mixed bag.

In 2022, Illinois and Ole Miss were top-20 teams in F+ that finished 8-5. Illinois went 5-7 in 2023. Ole Miss went 11-2. That same year, Arkansas and Oklahoma were top-30 teams that finished around .500 overall. Arkansas went from 7-6 to 4-8 in 2023. Oklahoma went from 6-7 to 10-3. Additionally, Florida was No. 31 at 6-7 in 2022 — and then it fell to 5-7 in 2023. Texas went from that highly rated 8-5 to 12-2.

We’re only halfway through the 2024 season, but we can take a look at how some 2023 underachievers are doing so far. Texas A&M was No. 18 in 2023 at 7-6, and it’s 5-1 so far in Year 1 under Mike Elko. Miami was No. 28 at 7-6, and now it’s 6-0 with Cam Ward leading the charge at quarterback. (However, the Canes are extremely fortunate to still be unbeaten.) Iowa State was No. 34 at 7-6, and it’s undefeated, too.

But there are negative examples as well. Kentucky was a top-30 team at 7-6 in 2023. It’s now a bizarre 1-3 in SEC play, even with that road upset at Ole Miss. Auburn was a top-35 team at 6-7 in 2023 and… well, you know. TCU went 5-7 with a top-40 team, and it’s lost three of its last four games here in 2024.

So, what can we gather from all of that? In my opinion, it shows that Auburn football is at a crossroads under Freeze.

There are a number of notable examples of teams that were “better than their records suggest” figuring it out a year later and turning that into victories. Some flipped their records in one-score games (Tennessee). Some got the right quarterback in place (Miami). Some stuck it out with a newer coaching staff and trusted the process (Texas and Oklahoma). Some just got more talented overall (Penn State). Some made coaching changes (LSU), although that won’t apply to Auburn here.

There are also a number of notable examples of underachieving teams continuing to fall short. Auburn has been that team multiple times. We’ve seen at places like Texas A&M and Florida that recruiting at an elite level doesn’t always equal on-field success. Sometimes, a team just stays mired in the struggles.

Freeze and his team have an opportunity ahead of them. The Tigers need to win one of these next two games at Missouri and Kentucky. If they can pick themselves up off the mat, they can piece together enough down the stretch to show that they truly got better as a program in 2024. In an upset-heavy, topsy-turvy year of college football, a turnaround is possible.

But it’s going to take Auburn doing something different on the field. It has to find a way to cut down on the mistakes, the communication breakdowns and the avoidable errors. It has to find efficiency to go along with the explosive potential on offense, and it has to play cleaner football overall on defense. The Tigers have to show they know how to win. They need to take advantage of hitting a reset button in the off week.

Even if Auburn has another losing season in 2024 — and that’s the most likely scenario — it should have a better roster in 2025. Improved quarterback play could be what the Tigers need to take that next step. (We thought that was going to be the case in 2024, though.) More experience for their most talented players should go a long way. Besides, it’s not like Auburn is getting blown out every week.

The 2025 class is too strong, and Freeze has too much support from the people in charge, to think he’s going to be fired at the end of this season. It’s not hard to see where this thing could turn around, either in the second half of this season or next season.

But there are enough examples of teams staying stuck in this spot, even with improved recruiting, to show that there are no guarantees. It’s on Freeze and his staff to figure out how to teach Auburn how to win again.

RB Jarquez Hunter (Austin Perryman/Auburn Tigers)

For the 3rd or 4th week in a row, Hugh Freeze says they’ve got to get Jarquez Hunter more touches. How many carries do you think he actually gets against Missouri?

Wes