Both the Denver Nuggets and Orlando Magic picked up wins on Wednesday night, and now they’ll turn around and play the second night of a back-to-back on Thursday. 

Denver has won four games in a row, and it has a chance to overtake the Houston Rockets for the No. 3 seed in the West with a win and a Houston loss to Minnesota. The Rockets are slight favorites in their matchup.

Meanwhile, Denver is favored by eight points at home against an Orlando team that has won just two of its last 10 games while ranking 29th in the NBA in offensive rating over that stretch. 

Orlando had a big game on Wednesday night, scoring 130 points in a win over the Sacramento Kings, but can it build on that in a tough environment in Denver?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to consider in the prop market and my prediction on Feb. 6. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Magic Injury Report

Nuggets Injury Report

Orlando Magic Best NBA Prop Bet

If there’s one player that is thriving on offense for Orlando, it is former lottery pick Franz Wagner.

Since returning from an oblique injury, Wagner is averaging 27.7 points per game (across seven games) while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3. He’s taking 20.7 shots per game over that stretch, giving him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop.

Wagner has cleared 25.5 points in four of those seven games, including a 31-point showing last night. He’s a solid target on Thursday. 

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Orlando allows the second-fewest opponent rebounds per game this season, but Nikola Jokic already has a 14-rebound game against the Magic this season.

While the Magic play at a slow pace, which limits opponent rebounds, they are also one of the league’s worst shooting teams. So, there should be plenty of misses for Jokic to gobble up on the defensive glass.

The MVP candidate is averaging 12.8 rebounds per game this season on 20.7 rebound chances. He’s a great bet at even money to clear this line for the 10th time since the start of the New Year (he’s currently 9-for-17).  

I’m not buying Orlando’s performance on Wednesday night as the norm, especially since it beat a Kings team that is in a feeling out process after trading away De’Aaron Fox.

The Magic are still 29th in offensive rating, 29th in effective field goal percentage and 29th in net rating over their last 10 games. That won’t cut it against a Denver team that has won seven of 10 and ranks No. 2 in offensive rating over that stretch – posting a top-five mark overall this season. 

The Nuggets are one of the best teams in the NBA as home favorites (11-7-1 against the spread), posting an average scoring margin of +9.2 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Magic are just 5-10 ATS when set as road underdogs.

With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Gary Harris questionable, the Magic could be down two of their better shooters in this game. For an already terrible 3-point shooting team, this is a red flag on the road against an elite offense. 

I’ll lay the points with Denver as long as Nikola Jokic suits up on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Pick: Nuggets -8 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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