By this time of year, we’ve seen 17 regular-season games from every NFL team, and we feel like we have a pretty good handle on each team’s identity, strengths and weaknesses. Well, I’m here to tell you why you’re wrong about all 14 teams in the NFL playoff field.

No matter how big the sample size gets, some stubborn “facts” about these teams sometimes persist — even when they aren’t actually true. If a team develops a reputation, it can stick, even as evidence sneakily piles up in the background to dispute those claims. We’re here just in time to explain why things everyone believes to be true about each playoff team might actually be false.

Here are our annual playoff mythbusters, with a big assist from ESPN researcher Paul “Hembo” Hembekides and the ESPN Research team. We picked out one thing most believe about each of the 14 playoff teams and debunked it. Hopefully you enjoy and learn something along the way. Let’s start with the NFC, and teams are ordered by seeding.

Jump to a team:
BAL | BUF | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | KC
LAC | LAR | MIN | PHI | PIT | TB | WSH

NFC

Myth: Quarterback Jared Goff is only great because of the great players around him.

It’s easy to see why someone would think this. Just look at what’s available to Goff every time he drops back. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the most reliable receivers in the league, catching 115 passes for 1,263 yards this season. Jameson Williams is a big-play threat with rare downfield speed and has developed into a big part of the offense. Tight end Sam LaPorta is as good as it gets at the position, especially as a red-zone target. And if he wants to hand it off, he might have the best running back tandem in the league with Jahmyr Gibbs (who led the league with 20 scrimmage touchdowns) and David Montgomery (currently out with a knee injury).

All of this behind what might be the league’s best offensive line? Easy to see why Goff is thriving, right?

Why it’s a myth: Goff ranked sixth this season in Total QBR (68.5), which measures the extent to which the quarterback makes plays that contribute to winning. He was also third in the league in completion percentage over expectation, behind only Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow, per NFL Next Gen Stats (plus-4.3%). That tells us he’s making consistently good decisions and putting the ball where it needs to go, even on plays where the circumstances indicate he’s not necessarily expected to succeed.

Sure, Goff has an embarrassment of riches, but he’s a major contributor to the Lions’ success on offense, even when he’s the one asked to carry them.

Myth: Running back Saquon Barkley has been the difference-maker between last season’s Eagles and this season’s Eagles.

This time last year, the Eagles were in the process of blowing a 10-1 start, losing five of their final six regular-season games and getting blown out of the first round of the playoffs by Tampa Bay. But this season’s Eagles won 12 of their last 13 games and are steamrolling into the playoffs as one of the favorites to win it all.

Barkley, the Eagles’ high-profile offseason signing, had one of the greatest seasons by any running back in league history, clearing the 2,000-yard rushing mark (2,005) and getting within 100 yards of Eric Dickerson’s single-season record. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns from scrimmage. There has even been talk of Barkley getting MVP votes, though a non-quarterback has not won that award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Why it’s a myth: The real difference is not on offense. The 2023 Eagles ranked seventh in offensive efficiency and eighth in offensive EPA, and the 2024 Eagles ranked fourth in offensive efficiency and sixth in offensive EPA. Instead, the big change is on defense, where new coordinator Vic Fangio has been maybe the highest-impact coordinator hire of the 2024 offseason.

Last season’s Eagles ranked 29th in the NFL in defensive efficiency and 30th in defensive EPA. Absolutely atrocious. This season? They were first in defensive efficiency and second in defensive EPA. It’s the result of Fangio, an excellent draft that produced rookie-year contributors at cornerback in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and the maturation of young players such as defensive tackle Jalen Carter.

As brilliant as Barkley has been, the point here is it’s the defense that puts the Eagles in a much better position entering the playoffs than they were last season.

Myth: Tampa Bay is inflated by playing in a weak division.

This is the fourth year in a row the Buccaneers have won the NFC South. In 2021, with Tom Brady at quarterback, they went 13-4. But the following year — Brady’s last — they won it at 8-9, and then won it again last season at 9-8.

This season, they finished on top with a 10-7 record, prompting some of the same old criticism about how they wouldn’t make the playoffs if they played in any other division.

Why it’s a myth: Well, first of all, 10-7 isn’t too inflated. If we look at the way the Bucs played against their division opponents and their non-division opponents, we find a fair bit of evidence that they don’t play much better against Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. Sure, they averaged 6.3 more offensive points per game when they played NFC South teams. But their defensive efficiency in division games was actually worse than it was when they traveled outside the division (their offensive efficiency was only slightly better in division games).

The Buccaneers went 4-2 against division foes, with both losses coming to second-place Atlanta. They were 6-5 outside of the division. The metrics show this season’s Buccaneers with a slightly worse defense but a considerably better offense (top-five in the league) than last season’s Buccaneers, who beat the Eagles in a first-round playoff game. There’s no reason to think this isn’t a dangerous team in the postseason.

Myth: The Matthew Stafford–Puka Nacua connection is the key to the Rams’ offense.

The Rams ranked 15th in the league with 212.8 passing yards per game and 26th in the league with 16.8 offensive points per game from Weeks 1-7 of this season. After Nacua returned in Week 8 from his knee injury, they ranked 11th with 235.5 passing yards per game and 15th with 23.0 offensive points per game.

Nacua was the Rams’ leading receiver in every game but two since Week 8, effectively turning former Super Bowl MVP and one-time target hog Cooper Kupp into the team’s No. 2 receiver. Nacua finished the regular season with 79 catches for 990 yards.

Why it’s a myth: This overlooks the extent to which running back Kyren Williams is the real engine of the Rams’ offense — at least in the “gotta have it” parts of the game. The Rams aren’t a great rushing offense; heck, the Rams aren’t a great offense, period. They ranked 16th in rush attempts and 24th in rushing yards. But James Cook, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs were the only players in the league with more rushing touchdowns than Williams (14). Henry was the only player in the league with more rushing first downs than Williams (85).

From Weeks 1-7, Williams ranked sixth in the NFL with 72.7 rushing yards per game. From Weeks 8-18, he ranked fifth with 86.3. Williams has been the rock on which the 2024 Rams offense was built. He accounts for 46% of his team’s touches, the highest percentage (through Week 17) for any player on any team. And while the Stafford-Nacua connection is undoubtedly special, Nacua caught only three touchdown passes this season.

Myth: The Vikings are the same mirage they were in 2022.

Two years ago — Kevin O’Connell’s first year as their head coach — the Vikings went 13-4 and won their division. They were 11-0 that season in one-score games, which set an NFL record that this season’s Chiefs have now matched. This season, Minnesota went 14-3 overall and 9-1 in one-score games.

Since the 2022 team lost at home to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs, some have speculated that this version of the Vikings could meet the same fate, as their record is inflated by their unsustainable record in games decided by one score. Minnesota went 6-8 in one-score games last season and finished 7-10 overall.

Why it’s a myth: Couple of reasons. First, O’Connell’s teams are clearly extremely good at winning one-score games. We can dismiss a one-year sample, but he has a three-year record in which his Vikings are 26-9 in games decided by eight points or fewer. No team in the league has won more than 26 such games over the past three years, and only the Eagles (22-6) and Chiefs (24-8) have better winning percentages in one-score games over that time. The Vikings play a ton of close games, and they’re good at finding ways to win them. (Worth noting: They were 3-4 in one-score games in 2023 prior to Kirk Cousins‘ season-ending injury and 3-4 after it.)

Second, this is a completely different Vikings defense. They ranked 22nd in defensive EPA, 19th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed per game in 2022. This season, they ranked second in defensive EPA, second in defensive efficiency and fifth in points allowed per game. Hiring Brian Flores as defensive coordinator in 2023 was a wise move that has paid major dividends in Year 2 and should make them a much tougher team to eliminate this time around.

This season’s Vikings outscored their opponents by a combined 100 points — an average of 5.9 per game. The 2022 Vikings actually allowed three more points over the course of the season than they scored.

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Stephen A. gets heated over Dan Orlovsky’s Vikings take

Stephen A. Smith gets into an animated debate with Dan Orlovsky over Sam Darnold’s ability to navigate the Vikings through the playoffs.

Myth: The Commanders are in trouble if they have to play an elite running team.

Washington had the third-worst run defense in the NFL by average yards allowed. Teams rushed for 137.5 yards per game against the Commanders. The only teams worse in that regard were the Saints and Panthers, who each finished the season 5-12. And only the Saints and Panthers allowed more yards per carry than the gaudy 4.8 that opposing runners averaged against Washington.

The Lions, Eagles and Rams all love to lean on the run and should theoretically be able to run all over the Commanders in a potential postseason matchup.

Why it’s a myth: Because they win games anyway! The Commanders were 8-3 this season when allowing 120 or more rushing yards in a game, which is the fifth-best record in the league in such games. The fact that they allowed 120 or more rushing yards in 11 games is obviously alarming — only the Bears and Panthers did it more. But look at Buffalo, which allowed 120 or more rushing yards in nine games this season and was 7-2 in those games.

Part of the reason may be that teams have a harder time running on Washington when they get closer to the end zone, relative to the rest of the game. The Commanders’ 18 rushing touchdowns allowed rank middle-of-the-pack. They have struggled to stop the run all season, and here they still are. So yes, opponents can run it against them but generally have to come up with some other way to beat Jayden Daniels & Co.

Myth: The Packers can’t get to the Super Bowl because they can’t beat the top teams in the NFC.

Green Bay had an impressive 11-6 season but finished in third place in their own division behind the Lions and Vikings. The Packers’ first five losses this season (prior to Week 18’s irrelevant loss to the Bears) were to the 15-2 Lions (twice), 14-3 Vikings (twice) and 14-3 Eagles. Those were the Packers’ only games against teams that won 11 or more games.

They weren’t blowouts, though. Both of their losses to the Vikings were by two points, though they fell way behind early and were scrambling to make it close in the fourth quarter. Their losses to the Lions were by 10 and three points. And they lost by five to the Eagles in the season opener in Brazil. So the Packers have been competitive with those top teams — they just haven’t been able to beat them.

Why it’s a myth: Failure to beat an 11-win team in the regular season doesn’t disqualify you from making the Super Bowl. There have actually been 14 teams in history that reached the Super Bowl despite not posting a single victory in the regular season against an 11-win team. Most of them were 0-1 in such games, but the point here is that those teams hadn’t been tested in this way, either. And perhaps the Packers can draw inspiration from the 2007 Giants, who went 0-4 in the regular season against teams with at least 11 wins but ended up beating a 16-0 Patriots team in that season’s Super Bowl. (Those Patriots went 3-0 against 11-win teams that regular season.)

We found 32 teams in NFL history that have reached the Super Bowl after posting losing records against teams that won at least 11 games in the regular season. After all, 11-win teams are hard to beat! The Packers closed the season ranked third in ESPN’s Football Power Index; being competitive against them ensures that no one will take them lightly just because they lack that big signature win. Plus, January’s a great time to get the first.

AFC

Myth: This is the worst Chiefs offense since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback.

The Chiefs ranked a pedestrian 15th in the league in points per game at 22.7. They also ranked 16th in yards per game at 327.6. Those numbers are a far cry from their high-flying Tyreek Hill days and a big reason the Chiefs seem vulnerable despite their 15-2 record and top seed in the AFC. A team with that record should be outscoring its opponents by more than six points per game, right?

The Chiefs’ plus-59 point differential was just the 11th best in the NFL. That doesn’t sound too bad, but again, they were 13 games over .500! We also need to consider that Kansas City is trying to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. Eleventh best might be good enough for some teams, but the Chiefs are supposed to be better than that.

Why it’s a myth: Well, the Chiefs were actually worse last season. They were 11th in offensive efficiency (49.8) and 13th in offensive EPA (10.0). In 2024, they ranked eighth in offensive efficiency (60.9) and 10th in offensive EPA (68.1). The numbers also say they’ve played better later in the season (sixth in offensive efficiency in Weeks 16-17).

With Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco returning to the lineup and guard Joe Thuney helping stabilize the left tackle situation, there’s reason for the Chiefs to believe this is the best offense they’ve had since at least 2022. No, it’s not what it was in the Mahomes-Hill-Travis Kelce heyday, but it is more than good enough to win — especially since we saw the Chiefs do it last season with an offense that was even worse.

Myth: Quarterback Josh Allen doesn’t have any elite playmakers around him on offense.

For the four years they spent together, Stefon Diggs was Allen’s clear No. 1 receiver and a go-to guy when things got difficult. The Bills traded Diggs to Houston last offseason, part of what appeared to be a mini rebuild. They also lost WR Gabe Davis to Jacksonville in free agency, and Buffalo opened the season with an extremely young receiver corps, leaning on 2022 fifth-rounder Khalil Shakir and rookie second-rounder Keon Coleman.

The success of the team and the offense in the first post-Diggs season is a big part of the reason Allen is in the MVP conversation. He has kept the Bills at the top of the AFC despite the turnover and presumably lesser supporting cast. He finished the regular season with the league’s second-best QBR (77.2), throwing 28 touchdown passes and running for 12 more scores.

Why it’s a myth: Did you forget about running back James Cook? He is certainly an elite playmaker and has been since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through last season. Cook finished the season tied with Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns and tied with Henry for second-most scrimmage touchdowns (18) behind only Gibbs (20, thanks to four on Sunday night).

Since Brady took over as the Bills’ offensive coordinator in Week 11 of last season, Cook ranks 12th among running backs in scrimmage yards — even though he ranks 17th in touches. Over that same span, only Henry, Kyren Williams, Gibbs, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley rank ahead of Cook in scrimmage TDs. Cook has emerged as one of the best and most reliable running backs in the league, a dependable option for Allen in the run and pass games, and the engine to Buffalo’s new offense.

play

Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: Stephen A. Smith picks the MVP

Stephen A. Smith explains why he thinks Josh Allen will win MVP over Lamar Jackson.

Myth: The Ravens aren’t built to come from behind.

This has been Baltimore’s reputation for a long time — including last season, when the Ravens bullied opponents with their defense and run game and very rarely seemed to need to come from behind to win. From 2018 (the year they drafted Lamar Jackson) through 2023, the Ravens went 3-15 in games in which they trailed by multiple scores at any time. That .167 winning percentage was better than 17 other NFL teams over that span, but it’s a far cry from their overall winning percentage of .685, which is better than everyone but the Chiefs and Bills over that span. And that, of course, has led to the reputation.

Why it’s a myth: Because Jackson has upped his game significantly in those situations this season. The Ravens are 4-2 in games in which they trail by multiple possessions at any point in 2024 — yes, more wins just this season than they had in the previous six combined in those situations.

Their 7.8 yards per play when trailing by more than one score is the second best in the league, behind only Minnesota. And Jackson’s 89.3 Total QBR when trailing by multiple scores is the best in the league this season. In obvious passing situations — defined by NFL Next Gen Stats as plays on which there is a 75% or better chance that the team will throw — Jackson has an EPA of 76.1, far and away the league’s best.

Adding Derrick Henry in free agency was supposed to help the Ravens salt away fourth-quarter leads, which has been an issue for them in recent years. It’s debatable whether that has actually been the case, but the good news for this season’s Ravens is that they very clearly have the ability to come from behind to win.

Myth: The injuries to receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs sank the Texans’ offense.

Diggs, who was Houston’s marquee offseason addition, suffered his season-ending ACL injury in Week 8 against the Colts. From Week 9 through 17, Houston was 25th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 18th in points per game. Dell suffered his season-ending ACL/knee cap injury in Week 16 against the Chiefs. Four days later, Houston scored just two points in a loss to Baltimore.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud was expected to take a step forward this season and join the top tier of NFL quarterbacks after his brilliant rookie year. Neither he nor the Texans’ offense did so, and it’s easy to argue that not having his receivers has been a big factor. Top WR Nico Collins missed five games in the middle of the season with an injury of his own, too.

Why it’s a myth: The Houston offense has plenty of other problems. Collins is the real key to the passing game, and the Texans ranked 20th in offensive efficiency and 22nd in offensive EPA from Weeks 6 to 10 when he was out with an injury. But the bigger issue the Texans had this season was the drop-off in offensive line performance.

They ranked 10th in the NFL last season with a pass block win rate of 61% despite struggling with injuries along the line. This season, that number was down to 57.7%, which ranked 22nd in the league. In particular, they’ve struggled on the interior relative to last year. Their run block win rate by guards last season was 70.9%, which ranked 13th in the league; this season, that number was 66.4%, which ranked 28th.

Diggs and Dell would help, but neither is coming back for the playoffs. And with or without them, Stroud was pressured on 35.8% of his dropbacks this season, fourth highest in the league. The Texans likely aren’t going far if they can’t block better for Stroud than they did in the regular season.

Myth: Jim Harbaugh’s coaching has elevated quarterback Justin Herbert to another level.

The Chargers just went 11-6 and made the playoffs in Harbaugh’s first season as their coach. It’s a fairly stunning accomplishment, given the rebuild vibes their offseason was giving off. Harbaugh’s tone-setting ability is a major key to the whole thing. We can see him on the sideline pregame pumping Herbert up, and it’s clear the quarterback and the rest of the L.A. team go out there as fired up and prepared to play as any team in the league. It’s a reminder to teams firing and hiring coaches over the next several weeks: Finding a leader can be more important than finding a playcaller.

It’s the second time in Herbert’s five-year career that he’ll play in the postseason. (He probably doesn’t like to talk about the first one, when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead and lost to the Jaguars two years ago.)

Why it’s a myth: At least statistically, Herbert might have just had the worst season of his career. Now, don’t get me wrong. Herbert didn’t have a bad season, but it wasn’t on par with his prior campaigns.

• His Total QBR of 61.9 was the second lowest of his career, behind only that 2022 season in which he also made the playoffs.

• His completion percentage was the second lowest of his career.

• It was the only full season he has played in which he didn’t reach 4,000 passing yards. (He didn’t get 4,000 last season but played only 13 games.)

• His 23 touchdown passes were the fewest he has thrown in a season outside of the 20 he threw in his injury-shortened 2023 (though it also bears mentioning that his three interceptions are by far a career low).

• His off-target rate was 14.6%, the second worst of his career.

• The 41 sacks he took were a career high.

Do we need to adjust for the relative lack of playmakers around him compared to prior years? Maybe. But the point here is not to denigrate Herbert, whose worst year would be a lot of quarterbacks’ best year. It’s to remind that this Chargers team is run-centric and leans a lot on its defense. Los Angeles throws 59% of the time, 23rd in the NFL. If the Chargers need Herbert heroics to win in the playoffs, they certainly can do so — but that would also mean things haven’t gone according to plan.

Myth: The Steelers have an elite defense.

Pittsburgh allowed 20.4 points per game this season, which is very good. Only seven teams allowed fewer, and all of them are in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense is also studded with stars like edge rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. And the unit’s reputation is based on decades’ worth of history and some of the most legendary defenses of all time. From 2017 to 2021, the Steelers led the league in sacks every year but one (2018, when they finished second).

One of the reasons Steelers fans have believed this was a playoff-caliber team was that the defense could control games while the offense figured itself out. And the Steelers did make the playoffs despite ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in offensive EPA, supporting that theory.

Why it’s a myth: The Steelers’ defense is good (seventh in defensive efficiency, seventh in defensive EPA), but it is not one of the elite defenses in the league. Pittsburgh ranked 17th in sacks and 18th in sacks per opponent dropback. And only seven teams allowed more passing yards per game than the Steelers’ 228.

They’ve also gotten worse on defense as the season has gone along. They rank 17th in both defensive efficiency and defensive EPA since Week 12. Watt seems to have been playing through an injury, which has affected his usually dominant performance, and the Steelers aren’t getting consistent enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks. As the bloom has come off the Russell Wilson offense here in the final month of the season, the defense has needed to step up at a much higher level — and it has not done the job.

Myth: The Broncos upgraded at quarterback in a big way in 2024.

One big difference between coach Sean Payton’s first season in Denver and his second appears to be at quarterback. Last season, Denver had Russell Wilson as its starter, but it pivoted to rookie Bo Nix — the 12th pick in the 2024 draft. The Broncos were so done with Wilson that they released him in the offseason even though they owed him $39 million in guaranteed salary for this season and took on a total of $85 million in dead-money salary cap charges ($53 million in 2024 and $32 million in 2025).

Even so, making the playoffs in Nix’s first season seems to validate that decision.

Why it’s a myth: Quarterback really isn’t the difference for the Broncos this season, at least on the stat sheet. Maybe they like Nix better than Wilson, but let’s look at what’s really different about these Broncos: the defense.

Last season, the Broncos allowed more points per game than all but six other teams in the league, ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, ranked 27th in defensive EPA and allowed the fifth-highest opponent QBR. This season? Only three teams in the league allowed fewer points per game than the Broncos’ 18.3. They ranked third in defensive efficiency, ranked second in defensive EPA and allowed the 11th-lowest opponent QBR. Vance Joseph’s defense — more than Sean Payton’s offense — is what drove the Broncos’ turnaround. (Offensively, for what it’s worth, the Broncos also posted a huge 73.8% pass block win rate, which was easily the best in the league and a solid jump from last season’s 61.4%.)

As for quarterback, Wilson ranked 19th in the NFL in Total QBR (51.5) last season and threw 26 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. This season, Nix ranked 20th in Total QBR (54.3) and threw 29 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Nix might represent better value than Wilson (though if you add in what they ended up paying Wilson this season, the Broncos still spent huge at the position), but looking at the numbers, it appears quarterback play is the thing that changed the least about the Broncos from 2023 to 2024.