The Buckeyes, with first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly (yes, that Chip Kelly), are averaging 48.8 points per game (third nationally), 534.8 yards (fifth) and have remarkable balance with the No. 14 rushing offense (227.0 yards per game) and No. 14 passing offense (307.8).

The play here for defensive coordinator Phil Parker is to lean on his best players. And that means relying on the front six (or seven) to stop the run, and keep plays in front of them with a well-stocked secondary. The Hawkeyes’ biggest question mark defensively is probably at No. 2 cornerback, so giving Deshaun Lee as much help as possible might be the best approach to keep this one close.

That means defensive tackles Aaron Graves and Yahya Black need to play great against what’s probably the weakest part of Ohio State’s offensive line, the interior. Same with Deontae Craig and Ethan Hurkett at defensive end. Parker should have supreme confidence that Higgins and Nick Jackson can rack up tackles at linebacker, with help from cash defender Sebastian Castro. Listening to Kelly talk about Iowa’s defense this week, he has the correct approach: Don’t try anything too cute against the Hawkeyes. There’s no way to “out-scheme” Parker, he said.

More: Leistikow’s 5 Iowa-Ohio State thoughts: Hawkeyes have grown up since 2022 debacle

Iowa’s best plan of attack on defense is to test Kelly’s patience with the run game, forcing the Buckeyes to take the slowest possible path down the field, then fighting for a turnover or to force a field goal once they near the goal line. Honestly, the Hawkeyes did a good job of that in the first half of the 54-10 loss at Ohio State in 2022, but Iowa’s offense was so horrendous that day that the defense eventually caved in.

Iowa’s defense needs to replicate what it did in the 2023 Big Ten Championship Game against Michigan (allowing two short touchdown drives and four field goals) and hope the offense can offer enough help to give the Hawkeyes a chance in the fourth quarter. Loading up against the run seems like a quick way to give up a big play or two that could turn this into a lopsided blowout.

Iowa tight end Luke Lachey will have a lot of supporters at Ohio State

The co-captain talks about what it’ll be like to play in Ohio Stadium again, having grown up a few miles from campus.

2. Where should Iowa look to exploit a vulnerability in Ohio State’s defense?

Listening to Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles this week, he also has a good feel for Iowa’s offense and the improvement that’s been made along the offensive line, with star running back Kaleb Johnson and in the pre-snap motion schemes of offensive coordinator Tim Lester.

“They get guys out of whack formationally,” Knowles said, “and then they crease it.”

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That is Iowa’s best offensive plan on Saturday, to stick with the running game and hope for Johnson to uncork a long run or two or three … or more. That’s the engine that’s powered the Hawkeyes to averages of 32.0 points and 250.3 rushing yards per game (No. 10 nationally).

That said, going against the strength of Ohio State’s defense – its four-man front – will be a major challenge.

“Easily one of the best defensive fronts in college football,” Iowa offensive line coach George Barnett said Wednesday. “They have tremendous talent, size, speed, power. They’re well-coached. … Very impressive group.”

Ohio State has logged 13 sacks this season, led by J.T. Tuimoloau (6-foot-4, 271 pounds) on the edge. Top defensive tackle Tyleik Williams (6-2, 290) has been cleared to return after missing two games with an injury, and that only compounds Iowa’s challenge.

But to answer the question, besides trusting the run game to pop some holes, the best way to attack Ohio State will be throwing against the second level. The team’s weak spot is at linebacker, where Sonny Styles is still learning the position after converting from safety. This is a game for Cade McNamara to target tight ends Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrenga upwards of 10 times with an effort to consume the clock behind a high-percentage passing game.

More: Leistikow: Iowa football’s Luke Lachey returns to Ohio State, and his family is all-in

And if Iowa can be successful through the air, that can unlock more space for Johnson to bust off his signature big runs.

20 minutes with George Barnett on Iowa’s offensive line, Ohio State

The Hawkeyes offensive line coach delves into the growth he’s seen from the run game, his senior-laden line and the young guys in the “push group.”

3. No one is giving the Hawks a chance to win. But if these two teams played 10 games, Iowa would win one. What will it take?

The question hits the percentages on the head. Analytics and oddsmakers suggest Ohio State has an 85% to 90% chance of victory Saturday. At +900, a $10 bet on Iowa would return $90 in winnings.

Finding that 10% scenario is the goal for Iowa this week as a 20-point underdog. Remember, Iowa was a 21-point underdog in 2017 when it crushed the then-No. 3 Buckeyes (same ranking as now), 55-24, at Kinnick Stadium.

“Sometimes it’s awesome being the underdog. That’s where a lot of guys feel a lot more comfortable,” McNamara said. “If anything, we should play with less stress and more free.”

Iowa cannot turn the ball over six times like it did at Ohio State in 2022. Winning the turnover battle (like Iowa did in 2017 with three Josh Jackson interceptions and an Amani Hooker pick-six) is an obvious starting point for an upset. Going plus-2 would be a great start Saturday.

Video: Iowa QB Cade McNamara previews matchup with Ohio State

QB Cade McNamara discusses a variety of topics ahead of Iowa’s matchup with Ohio State.

For Iowa, winning in the margins is always a key to any victory, especially for an upset. And that starts with the snap of the football. Iowa has committed only one penalty in its last two games, and that was on special teams. Avoiding false starts amid the noise of 103,000 fans (twice as many as there were in Huntington Bank Stadium two Saturdays ago) is a must to keep the offense on schedule. The defense cannot afford dumb penalties to extend Ohio State drives.

Ohio State will try to push the pace on offense. Iowa getting a few early three-and-outs on defense, then having the offense stay on the field for an extended, huddle-up drive (even without points) can help shorten the game. If Ohio State is held to eight or nine possessions and only scores on four of them, Iowa has a real chance to win. Converting third downs at a near-50% clip is probably another essential ingredient to a winning recipe for the Hawkeyes.

Rhys Dakin needs high, 50-yard punts – not 40-yard returnable ones. Drew Stevens must stay perfect as a placekicker, and that might mean multiple field goals from 45-plus yards. Dropped passes cannot happen at their current rate. Using halftime to get an extra possession in this game – say, score on the final drive and then get the ball to start the third quarter – is another slight edge Iowa should pursue.

Do all those things and maybe create one big, game-changing play – think Adrian Clayborn’s blocked punt at Penn State in 2009 – in a surprisingly tense fourth quarter, and that can unlock that one-in-10 scenario of an Iowa victory.

Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 29 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group (free for subscribers) at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.