Whenever I see double-digit entries in a two-turn dirt race, my first thought is how post position could affect the race.

My hypothesis that outside posts would not fare well was incorrect. Inside is not great, which is bad news for Innovator in Saturday’s Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds. I probably would have gone down to 9-2 on him without the rail.

Innovator gave next-out San Vicente Stakes (G2) winner Barnes all he could handle on that one’s debut and came back to finish second in a sprint stakes before breaking his maiden. The talent is there, but the rail may conspire against.

Still, given the 10-1 morning line price, it is likely we will get all the value we want on Innovator based on fair odds of 5-1.

The most likely winner is Built, based entirely on his last effort, a gate-to-wire win at this track and distance in the Gun Runner Stakes four weeks ago. That win earned a 10, with lower numbers better, on Ragozin, which is the fastest of this group. It was a big step forward, though, so the question is whether trainer Wayne Catalano figure out that Built is better going two turns or the entire performnance an aberration. If it’s the former then he is more like 3-2 or 5-2 to win this race; if the latter, then he is at least 5-1. I split the difference for fair odds of 7-2, which I do not think we will get.

So the two biggest pieces of the value puzzle are Innovator will be an overlay and Built will be an underlay. From there it’s anyone’s guess, though based on morning line, Optical intrigues. He is 20-1 morning line and about half that on my fair odds. His last race was a nice step forward after a dud. He would have to improve again here to contend, but that’s in the realm of 11-1 for sure.

If Built is less than 3-1, then an exacta box with others becomes enticing. I’d be looking to box Innovator, Magnitude, Optical and Disco Time if Built were taking that kind of money. Tough Catch and Dapper Moon would be my next two adds if the exacta board looked really crazy.