LeBron James and Stephen Curry will meet for the fourth time on Christmas Day and the 24th time overall. Can James lead his team to victory tonight against a familiar foe, or will the Chef cook at home to get his team back on track at Chase Center? Tip-off comes your way at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

My Lakers vs. Warriors predictions expect King James to deliver a strong scoring performance under the bright lights of this primetime matchup.

Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on James’ scoring prop.

Lakers vs Warriors prediction

My best bet
LeBron James Over 22.5 points (-125 at bet365)

My analysis

LeBron James is typically at his best when the lights are brightest, and he’ll look to stay productive in a primetime Christmas Day showdown with Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. James has played on Christmas 18 times in his career and averaged 26.4 points in those games. Since joining the Los Angeles Lakers, he’s averaged 25.8 points on Christmas.

James has hit the Over on this line in three of his last five Christmas games and 12 of 18 overall. I expect him to understand the gravity of the moment and come out firing. There’s no guarantee we’ll see LeBron vs. Curry in a big game like this again, and James will do what he can to make this an entertaining contest.

James is averaging a career-low 23.2 points per game this season, and he’s hit the Over on this line in 12 of 27 games. He’s been a slightly better scorer on the road than at home, and seven of his 12 games with at least 23 points have come outside of Crypto.Com Arena. James has scored at least 28 points in two straight, and I’m counting on James to extend that streak tonight. 

Defensively, this isn’t a scary matchup. The Warriors are eighth in defensive rating on the season as a whole at 109.7, but Over the last five games, Golden State ranks 27th at 119.6. I expect James to take over this game and deliver a vintage performance when it matters most. This is an easy Over.

Lakers vs Warriors same-game parlay

LeBron James Over 22.5 points

Over 225

Anthony Davis Over 11.5 rebounds

Anthony Davis has pulled down at least 12 rebounds in 13 of 28 games this season. That includes three of his last four outings, and his streak of 15-rebound efforts was snapped at three when he grabbed just 10 boards against the Pistons on Monday. Davis faced Golden State three times last season. He logged only 12 minutes and four rebounds in one game, but in the two games he played with at least 30 minutes, Davis finished with 15 and 13 rebounds.

During the 2022-23 campaign, AD averaged 12.9 rebounds in 10 matchups with Golden State and hit the Over on this line four times. Davis has been a better rebounder at home (12.5) than on the road (10.9), putting him in a favorable spot to cash the Over here. Golden State has allowed the fourth-most rebounds to opponents, and I love the Over for Davis here.

As mentioned above, the Warriors have had a tough time containing opponents in recent matchups. The Dubs have allowed just 110.8 points per game on the season as a whole (12th-fewest), but over the last three, Golden State has surrendered 119.3 points per game (seventh-most). The Lakers have allowed the 13th-most points per game to opponents this season, and they’ve given up 114.6 on the road.

These teams have hit the Over in two straight and five of the last six head-to-head matchups dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs. After five straight Unders, the Lakers hit the Over on Monday. Though these teams have only hit the Over in a combined 24 of 33 games, I fully expect this to be a high-scoring game as James & Co. take advantage of a Warriors’ defense that has been quite generous as of late.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

More NBA Christmas Day picks from Covers

Lakers vs Warriors odds

Lakers vs Warriors live odds

Lakers vs Warriors opening odds

• Spread: Los Angeles +3.5 (-110) | Golden State -3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles +135 | Golden State -160
• Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Lakers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

• Los Angeles is 1-3 straight up and ATS across its last four, and the team is 16-13 straight up and 13-16 ATS.
• Golden State has lost four and covered in two of its last five, bringing the team’s record to 15-13 straight up and 15-12-1 ATS.
• The Lakers have hit the over just once in their last six games, and they have gone over in 12 of 29 games this season.
• The Warriors have gone Under in three straight and in 16 of 28 games.
• Covers Consensus data reveals that 61% of picks are siding with the Warriors, while 66% are on the Over.

Lakers vs Warriors trend

Golden State won the 2023-24 season series 3-1 and finished the campaign with three straight victories over Los Angeles. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

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