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Candice Chavez / Eclipse Sportswire

Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis is the first of two stops on the Tampa Bay Downs road to the Kentucky Derby 2025 with 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points available to the top five finishers.

Three of the 10 horses in the field have made appearances on the Kentucky Derby trail, with a winner, a second-place finisher and a fourth.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis with morning line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 11 on a 12-race card with post time set for 5:14 p.m. EST.

1. Camp Hale, 15-1. Mo Town – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 3: M-3-0 – $56,950. Camp Hale moves onto the Derby trail still a maiden with three second-place finishes in what have turned out to be strong fields. He debuted at Keeneland in October against a full field, had the lead and finished second ahead of Patch Adams, who romped in his next start and then was fourth in the Southwest (G3). Then at Churchill, Camp Hale was behind Guns Loaded, who won the Mucho Macho Man. At Gulfstream last month, he was beaten by impressive Todd Pletcher runner Grande. Hard-luck maiden with a chance.

2. Treaty of Rome, 4-1. Uncle Mo – Chad Brown / Dylan Davis – 3: 1-1-1 – $89,700. Treaty of Rome broke his maiden in his second start, a mile at Aqueduct in December, as the favorite in an eight-horse field after pressing the pace. Chad Brown sent him to his Florida base at Payson Park to prepare for the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream. He missed the win there by a neck after stalking the leaders at unusually high odds of 11-1. The winner of that race went on to disappoint in the Holy Bull (G3). Win contender.

3. John Hancock, 5-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 1: 1-0-0 – $18,560. John Hancock was a debut winner at Tampa last month as the 8-5 favorite in a field of 10, where he hopped at the start and quickly got to the lead to win the six-furlong race by three lengths. The WinStar Farm homebred now shares ownership with China Horse Club and Siena Farm. As a Brad Cox runner, expect him to get plenty of attention from bettors. Hard to ignore.

4. Dr Ruben M, 15-1. Vino Rosso – Doug O’Neill / Junior Alvarado – 5: 1-2-0 – $77,700. Dr. Ruben M broke his maiden in his fourth start in California with a front-end trip going a mile. From there he moved onto the Derby trail in the Springboard Mile, where a fourth-place finish got him two Derby points. He pressed the pace in that Remington Park race behind two horses who went on to win on the Derby trail. This will be his first start as a 3-year-old. His two most recent workouts were at Gulfstream Park. Toss.

5. Gateskeeper, 20-1. Instagrand – S. Jade Cunningham / David Cohen – 2: M-1-1 – $28,800. Gateskeeper is still a maiden after two starts at Oaklawn. Last month he was third in a maiden optional claimer with a $75,000 auction price restriction. In his debut he was second by neck after a bit of trouble. Toss.

6. Owen Almighty, 7-2. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / Irad Ortiz Jr.– 4: 2-1-0 – $234,310. Owen Almighty crossed the finish line first in the Pasco at Tampa after racing on the front end but was disqualified and placed fifth. That would have been the third win of his career to go with two summer victories in his first two starts. Owen Almighty won a maiden at Churchill Downs in June and then added the Juvenile at Ellis Park in August. He moved onto the Derby Trail in the first stop, the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill, where he was second behind Jonathan’s Way and earned five Derby points. Blinkers go on. Top choice.

7. Poster, 5-2. Munnings – Eoin Harty / Antonio Gallardo – 3: 3-0-0 – $241,628. Poster is undefeated in three starts, including a December victory on the Derby trail in the nine-furlong Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, where he earned 10 qualifying points. The Godolphin homebred began his career with wins on the turf at Ellis Park in August and Keeneland in October. Poster handled the distance and the dirt, beating a talented second-place finisher by a nose. He prepared for his first start of 2025 at Turfway Park and was pointed to the Withers last weekend in New York, but bad weather in Kentucky delayed his training. Win contender.

8. Naughty Rascal, 10-1. Rogueish – Gerald Bennett / Edwin Gonzalez – 6: 4-1-1 – $220,630. Naughty Rascal benefitted from the disqualification of Owen Almighty in the Pascal and was awarded the first-place money after pressing the pace in the seven-furlong local prep race for the Sam F. Davis. In six career starts, the Florida-bred finished in the top three every time. He had four races at Gulfstream to begin his career, earning three wins with a state-bred maiden and two stakes wins, with one of them on the grass. Trainer Gerald Bennett, who is a regular at Tampa, moved Naughty Rascal there, and he was second in the Inaugural before the Pasco. The son of Rogueish was well-bet in each of his starts and raced close to the pace. He will be stretching out in distance and going two turns. Use underneath.

9. Smoken Boy, 20-1. Catholic Boy – Jose D’Angelo / Paco Lopez – 3: 2-1-0 – $46,490. Smoken Boy was a $15,000 purchase as a 2-year-old who raced three times at Camarero Race Track in Puerto Rico on muddy tracks. He broke his maiden in November by almost seven lengths as an odds-on favorite and the following month won a stakes race going two turns by more than nine lengths with a closing move. Since then, he moved to Florida, where he trained at Palm Meadows. Wild card in the field.

10. Very Bold, 20-1. Union Rags – Eoin Harty / Jesus Castanon – 5: 1-1-1 – $76,571. Very Bold was also part of the disqualification in the Pasco, where he rallied to get to third, five lengths behind, and then was moved up one spot to second place. He broke his maiden in his third start, which was on the synthetic track at Gulfstream, and from there was sixth in an allowance against winners at Turfway Park. Toss.

Summary: The top three horses to cross the wire from the controversial finish in the Pasco Stakes come back in the Sam F. Davis. Owen Almighty was disqualified to fifth while Naughty Rascal and Very Bold moved up to first and second. Owen Almighty was the best horse in the field as the one-length margin indicated. Also, he did not directly interfere with Naughty Rascal or Very Bold.

Owen Almighty will have to deal with the undefeated Poster, who did nothing wrong in three starts and is established at two-turn distances. Poster finds a tough spot in which to make his 2025 debut. Owen Almighty should be in top form after running well in the seven-furlong Pasco, and he is the top choice.