Kentucky Derby prep guide: Sam F. Davis odds, PPs, more
Photo:
Gonzalo Anteliz Jr. / Eclipse Sportswire
Valuable points for Kentucky Derby 2025 will be up for grabs in Saturday’s $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
The local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby will be run on dirt at 1 1/16 miles, with 10 three-year-olds set to do battle.
Post time for the Sam F. Davis, the 11th of 12 races, is 5:14 p.m. EST. Both FS1 and FanDuel TV will air it live.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page now for downloadable PPs for the Sam F. Davis Stakes and more, courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Sam F. Davis as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
Best speed figures
| Horse | Morn. Line | Beyer* | Brisnet | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Camp Hale | 20-1 | 85 | 93 | 111 | 120 |
| 2. Treaty of Rome | 6-1 | 79 | 91 | 109 | 108 |
| 3. John Hancock | 3-1 | 81 | 88 | 103 | 113 |
| 4. Dr Ruben M | 12-1 | 74 | 92 | 103 | 108 |
| 5. Gateskeeper | 30-1 | 72 | 82 | 97 | 104 |
| 6. Owen Almighty | 2-1 | 87 | 90 | 118 | 121 |
| 7. Poster | 4-1 | 84 | 92 | 100 | 104 |
| 8. Naughty Rascal | 6-1 | 85 | 96 | 114 | 119 |
| 9. Smoken Boy | 20-1 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 10. Very Bold | 20-1 | 77 | 82 | 102 | 111 |
| *Daily Racing Form |
Looking at the pace
A fast pace is expected for the Sam F. Davis with long shot Camp Hale ahead of John Hancock, Dr Ruben M and Owen Almighty early on.
Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks
This week’s Super Screener likes a 15-1 long shot in the Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay.
“The pace is estimated to fall seven points short of par, so this will be a soft pace that favors those who are forwardly placed,” Mike Shutty wrote. “The horse with the best pace advantage is the Super Screener’s top win pick, No. 3 Silver Slugger.”
Check out our $97 deal and get Super Screener each week plus Power Picks and Horses to Single reports every day up until Kentucky Derby 2025.
Ed DeRosa’s Sam F. Davis fair odds see Very Bold a live long shot on the stretchout in distance.
DeRosa also has Suncoast fair odds, where he’s leaning against likely favorites Her Laugh and La Cara and leaning on Junta and Cloe.
Ashley Tamulonis and Laurie Ross went head to head handicapping the Sam F. Davis, and each believes Poster is the horse to beat. However, they disagreed on how to fill out the exotics.
For more Sam F. Davis analysis, read Matt Shifman’s picks.
J. Keeler Johnson’s latest Horses to Watch column offers two runners to consider at Tampa Bay Downs on their loaded 12-race card.
Seven of the sharpest public handicappers from across the country joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to do a Kentucky Derby 2025 mock draft.
| Post | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start / Next Start | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Camp Hale Mo Town |
5.67 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 2 |
|
Treaty Of Rome Uncle Mo |
6.05 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 3 |
|
John Hancock Constitution |
5.84 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 4 |
|
Dr Ruben M Vino Rosso |
6.11 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 5 |
|
Gateskeeper Instagrand |
0.00 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 6 |
|
Owen Almighty Speightstown |
6.17 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 7 |
|
Poster Munnings |
7.14 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 8 |
|
Naughty Rascal Rogueish |
6.12 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 9 |
|
Smoken Boy Catholic Boy |
0.00 |
1st, Clasico Agustin Mercado Reveron S. |
Entered | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
1st, Clasico Agustin Mercado Reveron S. |
|||||
| 10 |
|
Very Bold Union Rags |
5.79 | Entered | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
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