When the second of six pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools closed Dec. 1, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull was somehow third choice in the wagering.

Five weeks later, the likely 2-year-old male champion is back to work as a 3-year-old but somehow the co-fifth choice in Caesars’ Derby market. Sure, pool 2 favorite Barnes won his stakes debut during that time, but Citizen Bull’s Juvenile was the most impressive win by any horse of his generation, and it came around two turns.

With Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 3 set for next week, I thought now would be a good time to start looking at how the Derby field stacks up. There are 27 3-year-olds listed at 40-1 or less on the Caesars market, with eight at 40-1. I picked the top five I liked plus the other 19 at 35-1 or less and made a fair-odds line with those 24 horses. Because this line considers only those 24 horses, you’ll want a premium versus these prices when comparing to what is available next week in a win pool with a 17.5% takeout.

I absolutely would consider a win bet on Citizen Bull if he is higher than 16-1. That was his price last time, and really nothing has changed for him other than he is back to working steadily. 

East Avenue is no secret despite the Breeders’ Cup clunker. There is real talent there, and there are enough fresh faces that he likely will be intriguing to his backers.

Barnes and Bullard are total fades to me. The former just has too much steam and is a certain underlay, and the latter hasn’t had a wow performance figure-wise that makes me think there is a path to Derby glory at the expected price.

The other I’ll be interested in price wise is Rated By Merit, an undefeated Florida-bred who will need to step into open company soon for points. I’m intrigued by his pedigree, as he is from the female family of Revolutionary and traces back to an Alabama Stakes winner.

This is shaping up to be a solid, competitive group with some buzz horses who aren’t as good on paper as the reputations indicate. At this stage of the Derby trail, that definitely means value in the futures markets.