Saturday’s Grade 1, $500,000 Risen Star is the third of four stops on Fair Grounds road to Kentucky Derby 2025. The Risen Star is the first of the Kentucky Derby championship series that offer 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points to the top five eligible finishers. A field of 13 was drawn for 1 1/8-mile race, and seven of the 3-year-olds have earned Derby points.

Recent winners of the Risen Star went on to be great 3-year-olds. Sierra Leone won last year, finished second by a nose in the Kentucky Derby, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and was named the champion 3-year-old. In 2023 Angel of Empire was the Arkansas Derby winner. Epicenter was the 2022 division champion and was second in the Kentucky Derby. Mandaloun was awarded the Kentucky Derby win in 2021 and won two other Grade 1 stakes.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Risen Star with the official track morning-line odds. The race is scheduled as race 14 of 14, with post time set for 7:30 p.m. EST.

1. American Promise, 12-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Keith Asmussen – 7: 1-1-1 – $134,874. American Promise broke his maiden in his sixth start at Oaklawn at the end of December with a front-end effort on a muddy track going two turns. Lukas sent him onto the Kentucky Derby trail in the Southwest (G3), where he finished sixth and was moved down to seventh place. The pace projector shows that American Promise will be part of an anticipated fast pace. Lukas won the Risen Star in 1997, 2000 and 2018. Use underneath.

2. Jonathan’s Way, 4-1. Vekoma – Philp Bauer / Jose Ortiz – 4: 2-1-0 – $268,530. Jonathan’s Way was the winner of the first stop on the Derby trail, the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, which came after his maiden victory at Saratoga. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he ran mid-pack most of the way and finished seventh. Jonathan’s Way finished his 2-year-old campaign with a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Those stops on the Derby trail give him 15 qualifying points. He has been preparing for his 3-year-old debut at Fair Grounds. Win contender.

3. Vassimo, 8-1. Nyquist – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 2-0-0 – $43,500. Vassimo is undefeated in two starts since starting his career in December. He broke his maiden going a mile against a field of nine at Gulfstream Park. Last month in December he beat a small field in an allowance at Tampa Downs. In both races he used a stalking trip going a mile or more, and he had Lasix in the second victory. Pletcher also is a three-time winner of this race. Live long shot.

4. East Avenue, 9-5. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 2-0-0 – $410,645. East Avenue also won his first two starts, beginning with an eight-length victory at Ellis Park and then the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) by more than five lengths to earn 10 Derby points. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he stumbled badly out of the gate and lost all chance on his way to a ninth-place finish. Both of his wins were with front-end efforts, and he is expected to part of the fast pace. Win contender.

5. Chunk of Gold, 30-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Abel Cedillo – 2: 1-1-0 – $48,818. Chunk of Gold made two starts on the synthetic at Turfway Park. He won his debut in an earnings-restricted maiden by a neck and then stretched out to a mile in a stakes race and rallied to get second. Toss.

6. Seattle Road, 30-1. Quality Road – Tom Amoss / Marcelino Pedrosa Jr. – 5: 1-1-0 – $50,778. Seattle Road needed four tries to get his first victory, and that was at Fair Grounds in December with a closing trip going two turns. He tried the Derby trail in the Lecomte (G3), where he was far behind early and got back to seventh at 79-1. Amoss won the Risen Star in 1994. Toss.

7. Septarian, 12-1. Protonico – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 3: 2-0-1 – $59,916. Septarian won his first two starts with a maiden breaker at Charles Town in September and then a six-furlong allowance at Laurel Park. He then was sold privately by owner-trainer Javier Contrares to Resolute Bloodstock and was sent to Chad Brown. Septarian trained at Payson Park and then finished third in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream behind two horses who finished out of the points on the Derby trail. Brown won the Risen Star last year with Sierra Leone. Use underneath.

8. Giocoso, 20-1. Not This Time – Keith Desormeaux / Jaime Torres – 6: 2-1-1 – $164,391. Giocoso broke his maiden in his third start, which was on the turf at Ellis Park in August. In September he finished third in the Iroquois and picked up 3 Derby points. Giocoso returned to the grass in the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland and was sixth. In November, he won an allowance on the turf at Churchill. He trained at Fair Grounds to prepare for his first start as a 3-year-old. Desormeaux had a victory in this race in 2013. Toss.

9. Built, 5-1. Hard Spun – Wayne Catalano / Luis Saez – 4: 2-1-1 – $174,204. Built is one of three horses in the Risen Star who already won on the Derby trail. He went from his maiden victory at Keeneland in October to the Gun Runner, which he won by almost seven lengths with a front-end effort. In the Lecomte in January, he rallied from behind and just missed the victory by a neck. Those two Derby preps gave Built 20 Derby points. Top choice.

10. Render Judgment, 12-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 4: 1-1-1 – $109,110. Render Judgment got his maiden victory in his second start in October at Churchill going two turns. From there he ran twice on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club and the Gun Runner. He finished fifth and third in those stakes and got 4 Derby points. McPeek won the 2002 Risen Star with Repent.  Toss.

11. Jolly Samurai, 30-1. First Samurai – Danny Pish / Rene Diaz – 5: 3-0-0 – $121,696. Jolly Samurai won his first three starts moving from a maiden to a pair of stakes races at Remington Park. He was fifth and ninth in the Springboard Mile and the Lecomte and has 1 Derby point. Toss.

12. Vamos Carlitos, 30-1. Catholic Boy – Greg Foley / Florent Geroux – 4: 2-1-0 – $76,344. Vamos Carlitos was claimed for $40,000 from his third start, which he won at Churchill Downs in November. In January he was second in a first-level allowance. Toss.

13. Magnitude, 12-1. Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Ben Curtis – 6: 2-1-0 – $146,165. Magnitude broke his maiden in his second race at Ellis in July by almost six lengths while racing on the lead. He has an allowance victory at Churchill in November between three starts on the Derby trail, including a second in the Gun Runner for 5 Derby points. He was seventh in the Iroquois and sixth in the Lecomte. The far outside post position is a tough spot for Magnitude and his forward running style. Asmussen is a three-time winner of this race, most recently with Epicenter in 2022. Toss.

Summary: The Risen Star drew a field of 13 in which there are four stakes winners, and three of those were on the Kentucky Derby trail. Jonathan’s Way won the Iroquois, and East Avenue took the Breeders’ Futurity. Those two were debut winners and now have to run nine furlongs in their first starts as 3-year-olds. Built won the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds and came right back in the Lecomte, where he missed by a neck on a sloppy track against another field of 13.

The Fair Grounds morning line has Built as the 5-1 third choice. The Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners runner won twice racing on the pace but ran from behind in Lecomte. That versatility is important in a large field and along with the prospect of 5-1 odds make Built the top choice.