Kansas State basketball vs Cincinnati: Score prediction, scouting report for Big 12 opener

Posted by author December 30, 2024 Basketball

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MANHATTAN — Kansas State’s basketball team will finally be back home at Bramlage Coliseum on Monday for its Big 12 opener against Cincinnati.

In the time since a record-breaking 120-73 blowout of Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Dec. 1, the Wildcats (6-5) have gone into a three-game tailspin with road losses to St. John’s (88-71) and Wichita State (84-65) sandwiched around 73-70 overtime heartbreaker against Drake in Kansas City.

No. 17-ranked Cincinnati, on the other hand, is tied for the best nonconference record in the Big 12 at 10-1 and has won four straight.

In both losses at St. John’s and most recently on Dec. 21 at Wichita State, the Wildcats led by four points at halftime, only to implode after intermission. Against Drake, in what technically counted as a home game at T-Mobile Center, they trailed by 20 in the first half before mounting a furious comeback.

Cincinnati’s only loss came on the road against Villanova (68-60) and the Bearcats have victories over Georgia Tech, Xavier and Dayton.

Here are three things to know, plus a prediction, for Monday’s game.

Not much of a history with Cincinnati

K-State and Cincinnati have played just nine times previously, with the Bearcats holding an 8-1 advantage. Last year’s 74-72 Cincinnati victory in Cincinnati marked the first time they met as conference foes.

The most recent meeting before that came in the first round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament in Sacramento, California, with Cincinnati also prevailing, 75-61. The rest of the matchups all took place between 1958 and ’68, including three in the NCAA Tournament.

K-State’s lone victory came in the first meeting, 83-80 in double overtime, in a 1958 NCAA Tournament game in Lawrence.

A closer look at the Bearcats

Cincinnati, which was picked sixth in the Big 12 preseason poll — K-State was No. 8 — not only is ranked No. 17 in both major national polls, but also has a No. 19 NET rating, fifth best in the conference.

The Big 12 boasts seven teams in the top 25 of the NET rankings.

Leading the way for the Bearcats, who average 79.5 points per game and allow just 59.5, is Butler transfer Simas Lukosius with 14.9 points per game and a 42.3 3-point percentage. Guard Jizzle James averages 12 points and 5.2 assists, Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell 11.4 points and 7.5 rebounds, and Dan Skillings 10.2 points.

Kansas State’s résumé needs work

K-State’s mediocre record is reflected in its NET rating of 122, which is worst in the Big 12.

What’s more, the Wildcats do not have what would be considered a quality win, going 0-1 against Quad 1 opponents and 0-4 against Quad 2 teams with four of their six victories coming against Quad 4.

K-State’s top-ranked NET victories came against No. 130 George Washington (10-2) and No. 180 Longwood (8-3) in the Paradise Jam. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-10) and Mississippi Valley (0-10) occupy the bottom two spots at 363 and 364.

Prediction: Cincinnati 75, Kansas State 68

Despite its recent slump, K-State should be competitive on its home court, even with students out on winter break. But Cincinnati is on a roll and has a 2-1 road record, including an 81-58 blowout of Georgia Tech.

Arne Green is based in Salina and covers Kansas State University sports for the Gannett network. He can be reached at agreen@gannett.com or on X (formerly Twitter) at @arnegreen.