NFL Week 4 picks and predictions: Why you should consider road teams
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for Week 4 games in the NFL.
It’s a bit early to hand over the hardware for MVP honors. But it’s not too soon to declare that Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen is the leader in the clubhouse. Heading into the Sunday night showdown at the Big ATM that will feature last season’s MVP, Lamar Jackson, there’s no hotter quarterback in the NFL than Allen.
Again, it’s early. Yet of the NFL’s five remaining unbeaten teams, none have amassed the style points quite like the Bills (3-0), who are rolling into Baltimore on the heels of three consecutive blowouts and leading the NFL in averaging a whopping 37.3 points per game.
Naturally, that flow begins with one of the league’s best players off to the best start of his career. Allen is the league’s top-rated passer (133.7), connecting on 75% of his throws. With his dangerous dimension as a runner intact, he has an NFL-high nine total TDs. Those numbers, though, are only part of the story. Two other factors are screaming about now.
Whatever happened to the turnovers? Allen, who in his first six seasons brought additional drama by too often coughing up the football, has yet to throw an interception this season. After committing a career-high 22 turnovers in 2023, he’s on the books for just one turnover (a lost fumble) for the current campaign.
Also striking is that Allen, who fired four of his seven TDs passes during the first half against Jacksonville on Monday night, is off to his blazing start without having the presence of Stefon Diggs. The Bills traded their erstwhile No. 1 receiver to the Houston Texans in April, getting a 2025 second-round pick in return. While Diggs is off to a strong start with Houston, he hasn’t been missed much in Buffalo. Allen completed passes to 10 different targets on Monday night – with four different players hauling in the scoring strikes.
The makeover of the Bills’ receivers corps without Diggs and Gabe Davis, a free agency departure, has underscored Allen’s growth in a diversified offense. Sure, third-year pro Khalil Shakir, a blazer who stretches the field, continues to step up. Shakir has been targeted 14 times and produced 14 catches. Yet balance has been the ticket for Allen.
“I think he’s spreading the ball out more,” Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr told reporters this week. “You really don’t know where the ball is going to go. All of his receivers are liable to get the ball in any situation at any point in time – including the running backs and the tight ends.”
And that’s not all. The Bills, with one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, have allowed the fewest sacks in the league (2). The rushing attack that once relied too much on Allen’s legs has continued the expansion that took hold last season with the emergence of running back James Cook. Allen can still burn defenses with designed power runs or by bolting from the pocket to extend plays, but even as he possibly builds an MVP case, there seems to be better support. Maybe that will ultimately help the Bills graduate from Super Bowl contender to the championship unit that coach Sean McDermott has promised.
What a challenge the Ravens defense, which ranks No. 1 in the league against the run but is dead-last when it comes to defending the pass. No, Baltimore’s defense is not as dominant as the tradition – especially when considering the Ravens’ propensity for squandering big leads. Baltimore had to sweat in pulling out a win at Dallas last weekend and before that blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in losing to the Raiders. The last time the Ravens and Bills met, in October 2022, Buffalo won after rallying from a 20-3 deficit.
This looks like a bad matchup for Baltimore (1-2). Then again, it’s the NFL. And it’s early. The chances for the Ravens to slow Allen’s roll could be swung with pressure and turnovers. And maybe Jackson, the two-time MVP, can help his defense with a performance that, well, upstages the MVP front-runner.
In any event, after crushing Jacksonville and Miami, and storming back in Week 1 to finish off Arizona, the tests get tougher for Allen and Co., beginning with a swing of three consecutive road games. After Baltimore, they head to Houston (hello, Stefon) and will meet four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Jets at the Meadowlands.
It’s just the gauntlet for Allen to add layers to a case for MVP honors.
With each passing day, the New York Giants’ decision to let Saquon Barkley walk away as a free agent – to a division rival at that – looks that much more foolish.
During the prime-time loss against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, Giants running back Devin Singletary rushed 14 times for 24 yards (1.7 per carry) and the team tallied a grand total of 26 yards on 24 rushes (1.1 yards per carry).
And that was against a Cowboys defense that was shredded four days earlier by the Ravens for 274 rushing yards and, before that, 190 yards on the ground by the New Orleans Saints.
Barkley, meanwhile, heads into Tampa Bay on Sunday with the Philadelphia Eagles as the NFL’s leading rusher with 351 yards, averaging a robust 5.8 yards.
Barring some miracle, the decision by general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll to devalue Barkley is the one that will cost them their jobs. And that the thinking was captured on the offseason edition of “Hard Knocks” makes it even more embarrassing – and more likely that pressure will intensify on Giants owner John Mara to start over.
Barkley landed in Philadelphia with a three-year deal that could be worth $46.75 million.
And now the cost in many ways will be even more significant for the Giants, who banked on an average quarterback, Daniel Jones, rather than an elite running back.
— Jayden Daniels heads into the game at Arizona on Sunday with the best completion percentage through three games for any rookie in NFL history (minimum 40 pass attempts) with his league-best 80.3% rate. Here’s something else that illuminates the quick impact of the Washington Commanders quarterback: The Commanders have scored on every drive the last two games (except kneel downs), which no NFL unit has managed since 2000.
— The Vikings defense, leading the NFL with 16 sacks, takes a notable distinction with it to Lambeau Field for the NFC North clash against the Packers. The unit coordinated by Brian Flores is the first since the Los Angeles Rams in 1988 to post at least five sacks and an interception in each of its first three games.
— It still seems weird that as kickers nailed 42 of 55 field goal attempts from at least 50 yards (76.4%) through Week 3, the Ravens’ Justin Tucker is 0-for-2 from 50 yards-plus. Tucker owns the record for the longest field goal in NFL history with a 66-yard strike and in his 13th season has connected on 58 treys from at least 50 yards. Then again, it may be just a matter of time before Brandon Aubrey breaks Tucker’s distance record. The Dallas Cowboys phenom has connected on 6 of 7 tries from 50-plus yards this season and since entering the league in 2023, is 16 of 17 on kicks of 50 yards or more.
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