*Sinner 4-3 Zverev An overhead from close to the baseline, confidently despatched, makes 15-0, then a return clips the top of the net and drops on Zverev’s side. Sinner then strays fractionally long on the backhand and nets a forehand, offering a glimmer at 30-all; a service-winner down the T follows as Tim notes the side that’s being served from now, to the right of the umpire’s chair, is the one has seen the overwhelming majority of the breaks due to the wind-direction. But when Zverev nets, Sinner holds, and at change of ends, he’s asking the umpire for the return of his racket which he says he needs back now, having sent them to the stringer an hour before the match. This doesn’t feel like the kind of distraction he requires.

Sinner 3-3 Zverev* After a tentative start it seems like Zverev is now more committed to attack, but he can hit accurately enough for long enough for that to work? He hauls a forehand wide to cede 15-all and then offers a chance on a second serve, but Sinner’s return down the line is wide. An ace down the T follows, then one out wide, and the German nonchalantly returns the balls. This is very tight, intense and intensifying.

*Sinner 3-2 Zverev Zverev’s best point so far, taking control of the first rally of the game and refusing to let up until a big forehand winner secures it. Then, well in the next, he strays wide with one that flies over the sideline but he’s looking to attack now, settled into the match; that’s a good sign for him and for us, though a service-winner down the T makes 30-15. This is shaping up now, Sinner soon netting a volley to cede deuce, then Zverev slightly overhits a forehand cross after being sent wider than ideal. An error from the Italian does then restore deuce, but from there he closes out as Zverev looks to force the issue, the sense that Sinner’s consistency from the back might just be the crucial aspect which ultimately defines and settles this match.

Sinner 2-2 Zverev*Excellent return from Sinner, lacing on to the line – if he can can get after second serves regularly, he’ll win – and a subsequent error from Zverev means at 0-30, there’s pressure. All the more so when, at 15-30, he tries a drop that’s too loopy, especially headed cross, the time it takes to get there allowing Sinner plenty of time to plan his pass. Two break points … both saved confidently enough, thanks mainly to two big first serves. And from there, Zverev powers through deuce, celebrating his hold with a loud “Let’s go!”, arguably the worst war-cry in sport. This is heating up…

*Sinner 2-1 Zverev At 30-0, the first serious rally on the Sinner serve, Zverev thrashing its 23rd stroke long. A service-winner and venomous forehand clean-up follows; the champ has settled immediately.

Sinner 1-1 Zverev* Silence as Zverev tosses and already he’s playing a rally longer than anything we saw in the last game – perhaps put together. But Sinner swipes wide looking for a backhand winner, then hooks wide on the forehand; 30-0. Zverev, who knows he plays safe on big points, is hitting a lot down the middle while Sinner seeks winners, and as I type the champ finds his first of the game, an inside-out backhand pass … immediately cancelled out with an ace. A long backhand follows, and that’s Zverev’s hold sealed; he’ll feel better for that, but so far looks a lot less chill than his famously imperturbable opponent.

*Sinner 1-0 Zverev (*denotes server) Is Zverev nervous? I know it’s become more fashionable to let an opponent serve but I thought he’d want to grab hold of things immediately, setting a tone and establishing a lead. Sinner begins with an ace down the T and very quickly secures a love hold. I doubt that was Zverev’s plan and he’s not exactly felt ball on strings to settle him as he prepares to deliver himself.

Zverev puts Sinner in to serve, ready … play.

It’s hard to see Sinner playing poorly enough to lose this in three or four. If he’s to win Zverev will, I think, have to outlast him down the stretch – something of which he’s not yet show he’s capable.

And here come our players!

What I love about Sinner is how comfortable he is in in his own skin, able to laugh at himself without compromising. He knows he lacks the magnetism and charisma some have, but is so at ease with who he is he’s turned that into magnetism and charisma of its own.

Sinner is 94% on hard courts since winning in Australia in 2024, beating Zverev in their only meeting this year. Alcaraz gives him grief because of how quickly he plays, but he moves so well and hits so consistently, even a unique genius must play lights out to put one over on him.

So how will our match today go? Sinner is favourite partly because he knows he can do it, 2-0 in finals relative to Zverev’s 0-2. But he also hits more consistently and, tough both shots have improved, Zverev can struggle on forehand and volley with Sinner good enough to target both. I expect the champ to sit on the baseline, plant feet if he can, and look to keep Zverev moving and guessing; Zverev will, I think, hope to draw him in, in order to hit passes.

Yesterday was a good day for this blog, part two: longtime and even occasional readers will know that the good stuff comes from Coach Calvin Betton. Well, Coach Calv and his charge, Henry Patten, along with Harri Heliovaara, have now added the men’s doubles Australian Open title to the one they won at Wimbledon earlier this year. Mazal tov!

I post this not just because she’s a favourite but because Zverev would do well to take heed: another player with a massive game but prone to collapse, who can’t quite deliver his best when he really needs to.

Maddy explains in more detail:

I absolutely love this:

I finally got to the point where I was OK if it didn’t happen,” she said. “I didn’t need it to feel I had a good career or that I deserved to be talked about as a great player. Finally letting go of that internal talk gave me the ability to go out and play some really good tennis to win a grand slam.”

I remember Andy Murray saying that after he lost the 2012 Wimbledon final to Roger Federer, he had to deal with the prospect of never winning a major. Two months later, he was Olympic champion and US Open champion.

Yesterday was a good day for this blog, one of our longtime favourites, Our Maddy, finally working out how to create the destiny she thought had escaped her.

Agreed. His serve and backhand are among the best shots in the game, but can Zverev continue to aggress if and when it gets tight? Sinner knows he can rely on himself to treat every point the same.

Preamble