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NEW YORK — For 20 minutes, the chances that an American man might actually win the U.S. Open for the first time in 21 years looked very good, or at least better than they had in a while. 

Carlos Alcaraz left the tournament Thursday night. Novak Djokovic followed him out the door Friday. Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe, playing their home Slam, were already in the final eight.

And Monday night, Tommy Paul was pummelling Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1, surging to a 4-1 lead in the first set by breaking the Italian’s serve twice in his first three attempts.

Sinner was flying forehands and backhands all over the park. Paul was doing that thing where he feels the ball and his game: skipping back to the service line between points, twirling his racket, pushing into the court and cutting loose on the ball. 

The packed Arthur Ashe Stadium, glowing in the night, was getting loud. Chants of “USA” were rattling around the building.

Was this really happening?

It was, for 20 minutes. After 25 of them, Sinner was showing everyone here, as well as Tiafoe and Fritz — who were surely watching their longtime friend fight the good fight from their hotel rooms — just how tough winning this tournament would be. Suddenly, Sinner was smacking his forehands inches over the net and millimeters from the line, his long legs powering him back and forth across the baseline, switching directions like a slalom skier cutting through the gates, which is what he used to do as a kid. 

Now Paul was going backwards instead of forwards, spraying balls all over the place. The trophy that Andy Roddick lifted in 2003 — back when it seemed like American men were destined to win this thing every other year or so — was receding further into the distance.

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None of this surprised Paul. He had heard the chatter after Djokovic and Alcaraz went out. Big opportunity. No better chance. The draw wide open for the three Americans who who spent all those nights at USTA camps in Florida and California when they were teenagers.

“I play the No. 1 in the world tomorrow, so I don’t know if I’m thinking, like, ‘opportunity’ too much,” he said Saturday, after his third-round win against Canadian qualifier Gabriel Diallo.

“Different parts of the draws have opened up, but mine has not.”

No, it hadn’t.

Paul had spent the early part of the match avoiding what he calls “bang bang tennis” — the baseline exchanges in which Sinner cracks the ball harder than anybody. He scuttled into the net unseen. He established clever patterns, taking cross-court forehands down the line to Sinner’s backhand, before skittering over to the opposite corner to receive the next ball.

From there, he sliced short into the Italian’s forehand, the ball dying on the service line. Anything to stop Sinner from unleashing a thunderclap that pierced even the rumble of Arthur Ashe Stadium. For two sets, it stemmed fate.

Then, Paul was 4-3 up in the second set tiebreak, coming into the net. Sinner hammered a passing shot right at him. A volley into the corner and it was 5-3 Paul — but the ball was just too fast. He stopped it into the mid-court. Sinner passed him, and that was basically that. The Italian went through, 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-1.

If Fritz or Tiafoe want to win the U.S. Open, they are likely to have to figure out Sinner themselves.

That is a long way down the road, as Tiafoe warned after he beat Alexei Popyrin on his favorite court, in front of the fans that get ridiculously loud for him.

“You can’t get ahead of yourself,” Tiafoe said.  “Everyone is good, so it doesn’t really matter who’s in or who’s not.”

Tiafoe will take on Grigor Dimitrov on Tuesday night on Ashe. Maybe he and his 24,000 friends in the stands will throw another party. Or maybe Dimitrov’s nasty slice backhand will beguile and cut his forehand to ribbons as it did at Wimbledon last year when Tiafoe was still cruising on the confidence from his semifinal run at this tournament in 2022.

That was their first meeting in four years. The head-to-head is 3-1 to Dimitrov, and Tiafoe last beat him in 2019, at the Australian Open. It took four sets, and the scoreline had a 7 in all four.

Frances Tiafoe loves Arthur Ashe Stadium like no other. (Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images)

That was a tennis lifetime ago. Dimitrov is 33 and survived a two-set surge from Andrey Rublev on Sunday. He’s also had his best season in years under the tutelage of Jamie Delgado, an old-school coach who is getting hard work and grinding tennis out of a player who for years showed little taste for either.

After a year in the wilderness, Tiafoe is winning the only way he knows how: with heart and flash. He wins points with bursts of power and soft touch, and he rides the crowd like a preacher rousing his congregation on a Sunday morning. If he can get by Dimitrov, he will play the winner of Fritz and Alexander Zverev, the No. 4 seed.

Could it possibly be Fritz, which would give the Americans a guaranteed spot in the final? 

Maybe.

Fritz beat Zverev at Wimbledon, climbing back from a two-set deficit. Zverev said he was playing on one leg. Not very magnanimous. He was hobbled, having hyperextended his knee in an earlier round, but he and Fritz have been trading wins going back to 2018. Seemingly it’s Zverev’s turn, though he hasn’t been as sharp as he was through the clay-court season. Whoever serves better will probably win.

Like Tiafoe, Fritz is using every fiber in his brain to not think about a path to the final. He showed up at the U.S. Open in 2022 thinking he had a shot to win it. Djokovic, who he has never beaten, wasn’t at that tournament because of his refusal to get vaccinated against the coronavirus.

Fritz lost in the first round to a qualifier named Brandon Holt. Ever since he has vowed never to look ahead again. Worry about the person that’s in front of him and go from there.

Taylor Fritz came through a tough match with Casper Ruud to reach the quarterfinals. (Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images)

“I think as you get better, your expectations go up,” he said.  “In the past, I’ve been very happy to make quarterfinals. Now I’m still happy to make quarterfinals, but I wouldn’t be happy with it ending here.”

If he does get by Zverev and then has to face Dimitrov, he’ll have the memory of beating him this spring in Rome. But that was on clay, in best-of-three rather than best-of-five.

If either Fritz or Tiafoe makes it to Sunday, they will likely see the world No. 1 on the other side of the net — unless Sinner loses Wednesday. He plays Daniil Medvedev, the most likely player to knock him out.

Medvedev is the 2021 champion but Fritz might prefer it the other way — he has beaten Sinner once compared with an 0-1 record against Medvedev. 

Tiafoe? Winless in five matches against Mevedev, and 1-4 against Sinner.

That trophy, it’s still pretty far away.

(Top photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)