This is the third and final evaluation of my 2024 fantasy football projections. I reference the quarterback piece, twice, but don’t forget to read up on those and the running backs for great lessons learned in bettering projections, ranks and roster building. Wide receivers are on tap this week, and we have some big names review, from Jordan Addison to DK Metcalf to, drool, Brian Thomas Jr.

NOTE: Missed projections won’t come into play for injuries to the player (ex: Puka Nacua missing six games).

2024 WR HITS

DJ Moore, CHI

• Projections: 79 REC, 1086 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 192.1 PTS
• Actual: 98 REC, 966 RECYD, 6 RECTD, 189.1 PTS (-3.0)

While the reception volume was off — partly due to over-projecting Caleb Williams as a passer — the overall production was close. The biggest takeaway was the large difference in Yards Per Catch (YPC), and that is a potential learning point for the future. As seen with Jayden Daniels early on, teams lean a bit more conservative in the play calling as an inexperienced quarterback develops. Yes, the Bears threw Williams to the wolves more than Kliff Kingsbury did with Daniels, but when Williams needed to find answers, it came from passes that were shorter, quicker and with better accuracy. That last aspect also comes into the projections, which accounted for the lower reception rate if giving a receiver — with a rookie quarterback — a higher YPC.

Zay Flowers, BAL

• Projections: 78 REC, 945 RECYD, 6 RECTD, 176.1 PTS
• Actual: 74 REC, 1059 RECYD, 4 RECTD, 172.5 PTS (-3.6)

There isn’t much to do here but brag. I kid. But truthfully, the reason Flowers hit so well is understanding the inconsistency in this style of offense. The Flowers fantasy comparisons to DeSean Jackson were/are warranted. That comes with some great games, plenty of good performances, and several frustrating stinkers. Both because of the offense and the weapons, Flowers — and any wideout in his situation/role — will always be a WR2/3 who commands the correct roster build. In fact, despite their talent differences (I’d take Flowers every time), Flowers and Darnell Mooney are not much different when it comes to fantasy football.

Jordan Addison, MIN

• Projections: 78 REC, 1002 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 173.6 PTS
• Actual: 63 REC, 875 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 181.0 PTS (+7.4)

Addison started slow, but that’s the lesson learned here. The opportunity was always there for him, but Addison’s volatility skewed towards more unlucky than lucky early on. With Addison’s second-half touchdown success, you also shouldn’t overrate him for 2025. And, if he (or others in the same conversation — remember Jayden Reed?) starts hot instead, a sell-high opportunity is in store.

Calvin Ridley, TEN

• Projections: 73 REC, 1040 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 182.9 PTS
• Actual: 64 REC, 1017 RECYD, 4 RECTD, 167.2 PTS (-15.7)

Even with different quarterbacks, Ridley remained the same fantasy player. In fact, Ridley falls into a bucket with Flowers and Addison. Truly, most any wide receiver outside the Top 15 (ish) ends up being inconsistent unless you are talking about the outlier Jakobi Meyers types (Romeo Doubs as a lesser version, etc.). For Ridley, the quarterback play was abysmal, but if you have someone commanding an extreme target share, you can happily slot him in as your WR3. That’s the rub though — you don’t want iffy target volume on a poor passing offense. That’s where chasing the Patriots or Colts receivers became dangerous.

2024 WR MISSES

Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI

• Projections: 86 REC, 1131 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 196.1 PTS
• Actual: 62 REC, 885 RECYD, 8 RECTD, 165.5 PTS (-30.6)

If you missed the quarterback evaluations, go back and read my Kyler Murray take. Harrison should have been in the Ridley tier in hindsight, but many, myself included, expected better for Murray, Harrison and the Cardinals offense. Malik Nabers and my guy (who? that’s coming shortly) were able to offset similar concerns thanks to terrific target shares. Harrison wasn’t so lucky, as Trey McBride commanded too much to have Harrison offset Murray’s inefficiency in targeting him. I’ll take this more into account when projecting ceilings and floors with other rookies and/or new QB/WR combinations.

Ladd McConkey, LAC

• Projections: 77 REC, 923 RECYD, 5 RECTD, 163.3 PTS
• Actual: 82 REC, 1149 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 199.9 PTS (+36.6)

Brian Thomas, JAX

• Projections: 78 REC, 1026 RECYD, 7 RECTD, 181.2 PTS
• Actual: 87 REC, 1282 RECYD, 10 RECTD, 240.5 PTS (+59.3)

I’m combining McConkey and Thomas given their similar circumstances. Both were extremely talented wideouts and deserved more hype heading into the season (by consensus opinion). Again, it helps that I was higher than the average (and again, I’m not perfect — Jahan Dotson 2023 anyone?). The main focus shouldn’t be whether I was correct on their evaluations, it should be on their opportunities if able to secure the No. 1 role. McConkey had Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston as competition, and Thomas had arguably more in Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, but due to injuries and lack of performance, McConkey and Thomas ascended to being their team’s top option. That’s why both “missed” in my projections but still hit in the talent department. When it comes to rookies or younger talent with the potential to push a veteran aside, the goal shouldn’t be to “nail the projections.” What you can learn and apply is seeing a ceiling beyond projections (even when slightly aggressive, like mine) if there is an opportunity to command a bigger/better role. So next year, when looking at rookie wideouts coming into a No. 3 role, or considering second- and third-year players in those roles, draft those players as better picks in the middle rounds over the waiver wire also-rans who would never start for you anyway.

Jerry Jeudy, CLE

• Projections: 54 REC, 700 RECYD, 4 RECTD, 119.5 PTS
• Actual: 90 REC, 1229 RECYD, 4 RECTD, 195.9 PTS (+76.4)

Jeudy was one of the biggest misses, but to be fair, who thought Jameis Winston would step in and send Jeudy to the moon? Okay, sure, there was always a chance Deshaun Watson would bomb again, or even get hurt again, but it’s tough to work that into projections. In fact, with a full season of a Watson-led pace, Jeudy would have missed his projections by about 14-15 points. Certainly, we can’t simply say, “Oh, well, these things will always happen.” You know projections can’t be perfect, but we can still learn. The lesson? When a situation similar to this happens — quarterback change, leading to a different target share — don’t be afraid to react quickly (good or bad). George Pickens with Russell Wilson and Drake London with Michael Penix are two other good examples.

OTHER TEAM NOTES

SEAHAWKS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

• Projections: +39.2 JSN, -38.6 Metcalf, -65.8 Lockett

All the Seahawks were off to varying degrees. The Smith-Njigba and Lockett misfires were due to JSN’s jump from No. 3 to No. 1 in the the team’s WR pecking order. The projections had JSN in the mix to “share” the No. 1 role, but leaping Metcalf — at least to this degree — was not expected. Additionally, the Seahawks offense struggled under Ryan Grubb, even though they did pass at a slightly higher percentage. Injuries and offensive predictability stunted the production. All that said, there are two takeaways. One is the obvious “expecting the vet to finally give way to the young talent.” We’ve seen it time and time again, but again, even calling for a JSN bump didn’t account for Lockett falling off the cliff. The second takeaway: Just because a team does something more, it doesn’t mean it will be better, or even as efficient. You balance out Smith-Njigba and Metcalf, and Lockett still shows a significant drop. It’s another reminder coaching changes have risky floors as much as they bring hope for better. Remember this with the 2025 coaching movement.

BUCCANEERS: Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan

• Projections: -6.2 Evans, +7.8 McMillan

If not for missed time, these wouldn’t have been as close. Evans would have outperformed his mark, and McMillan likely falls short… though, his could go either way with his own missed time. Evans and McMillan are here more for the learning potential. Evans ties back to Baker Mayfield — again, reference the QB piece — but McMillan ties into the Brian Thomas/Ladd McConkey discussion. No, McMillan doesn’t deserve to be in their talent conversation — even coming from one of his biggest fans — but he does deserve to be in that conversation of talented No. 3/4 wideouts with an opportunity to step up. Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are lesser examples of the same situation — both flashing when injuries/opportunities happened. Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette are other rookies in the same boat. Once again, draft (or stash after the first/second waiver run) upside over holding replaceable options.

(Top photo of Brian Thomas Jr.: Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)