This match could go either way, as both sides have been pushed to the limit and found a way to escape some very difficult situations.
We are giving the hosts the edge, however, because of their defensive organisation and experience in close games and knockout fixtures.
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 61.42%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 16.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Qatar win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.