Iowa State football: Travis Hines' prediction for Big 12 title game vs. Arizona State

Iowa State football: Travis Hines’ prediction for Big 12 title game vs. Arizona State

Posted by Admin December 6, 2024 Football

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AMES – The way Matt Campbell said it, the words seemed to linger in the air, a cloud around the Iowa State coach. It distilled a disappointment into a single sentence and a specific shortcoming.

“You fell 31 yards short,” Campbell said Saturday, “of finishing that game.”

“That game,” of course, was the 2020 Big 12 championship, and those 31 yards were how far Iowa State was from the end zone when quarterback Brock Purdy’s pass was intercepted in the final minute against Oklahoma to keep the Cyclones without a conference title since 1912.

“You reflect back, never the wins,” Campbell said Tuesday, “but you reflect on the losses. Obviously, that game, that moment was a great learning opportunity for all of us.

“That one, obviously you sting because you felt like you played pretty good football that day, but not good enough.”

Four years later, Iowa State is getting its next chance to finally bring a conference title back to Ames.

And maybe even more, put an end to whatever haunting those 31 yards still hold at the Bergstrom Football Complex.

“It definitely does stick with them,” senior Jaylin Noel, who arrived at Iowa State in 2021, said of his teammates who fell short against the Sooners that day. “They’re hungry, and we’re hungry to go get it done.”

The 16th-ranked Cyclones will take on No. 13 Arizona State on Saturday at 11 a.m. at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (ABC).

Winner gets the crown, and, most likely, a spot to play for another, heavier one in the College Football Playoff.

“The preparation has to be at a championship level,” nine-year defensive coordinator Jon Heacock said. “The focus has to be at a championship level.

“And you’re going to have to play at a championship level.”

Iowa State (10-2) has largely done that this Big 12 season, winning its first four conference games and its last three of the season with a pair of losses sandwiched between.

The Cyclones have not been dominant this season – which is in part why they do not have an at-large chance at the CFP – but they have consistently passed the tests placed in front of them. They have largely been the kind of team Campbell covets – tough, resilient, mature and detail-oriented.

And they’ve already had the most successful regular season in school history, securing the program’s first 10-win season.

Now, though, they’ve got the opportunity to do more. To do what that 2020 team – unquestionably the best in school history, to this point – couldn’t.

End the conference championship drought.

“I’ve tried to share some of the scars that we had from that game,” Heacock said, “in getting prepared to play that game, the caliber of people you’re going to play.”

The memories, the scars. They’re all still there. Campbell, his staff and his players are getting off kind of easy, though. Those scars, those memories are only four years old.

For Iowa State fans, the 2020 scars and memories are only part of a collection more than a century in the making. A history with a few spikes of opportunity, but otherwise largely missing from the conference and national conversation.

No more, though.

Twice in less than half-a-decade they find themselves here. Ready to break through.

Whatever hope and optimism Campbell offered when beginning this undertaking nine years ago, he’s delivered. The Cyclones are here.

All that’s left to do is go win the thing.

No. 16 Iowa State football (10-2, 7-2) vs. No. 13 Arizona State (10-2, 7-2) game prediction

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., Saturday, ABC; Arizona State favored by 1.5 points

Where Arizona State has the edge: The clearest and most obvious issue for the Cyclones on Saturday will be stopping – or at least slowing – Sun Devils star runing back Cam Skattebo. The 5-foot-11, 215-pound senior is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on his way to 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns during the regular season. He’s rushed for at least 147 yards in three of his last four games and has a combined six touchdowns in his last two contests. The Cyclones have struggled mightily against the run at times this year, and if they do again Saturday, it will be hard to be on the right side of the scoreboard.

Where Iowa State has the edge: The Cyclones’ best bet against Arizona State will be utilizing wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to try to take advantage of what has been a middling Sun Devils passing defense. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht was shaky last weekend against Kansas State, but he’s been his best in big moments and on big stages.

Prediction: Iowa State 27, Arizona State 24: Skattebo has a solid but not ridiculous day, and the Cyclones hoist their first conference trophy since 1912.

Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000. Follow him on X at @TravisHines21.