BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana had an opportunity to move up the NCAA pecking order last week when it hosted games against Illinois and No. 4 Southern California.
Indiana had been projected as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. Two wins at home? Particularly a head-turning victory against USC? Indiana could have positioned itself nicely to make a run at being a tournament host.
Unfortunately, the Hoosiers weren’t able to capitalize on the home games. A competitive 73-66 loss to the powerful Trojans was not unexpected and not a bad defeat Sunday. However, the 68-54 loss to Illinois on Jan. 16 hurt.
It’s not that the Fighting Illini are a bad team – they’re a good team – but in a very deep Big Ten home games against peer teams have to be won. It was a setback for the Hoosiers.
Bracketology has not necessarily reflected that yet, but Indiana lost both an opportunity to improve its seed and some margin for error.
In the two bracketology websites that updated this week, Indiana is still solidly in the field.
ESPN updated its bracketology on Tuesday. Indiana was shipped to the Columbia Regional as a No. 9 seed playing Louisville. The winner would almost certainly face No. 1 seed South Carolina, the defending national champions and a team the Hoosiers faced in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has the winner advancing from Columbia to go to Birmingham, Ala., for the Sweet 16.
The website herhoopsstats.com also updated its bracketology on Tuesday. That bracket was nearly identical to ESPN’s. Indiana faced Louisville at Columbia with the winner of the Columbia Regional advancing to Birmingham.
One reason Indiana keeps getting placed at South Carolina’s home regional is the nature of the No. 1 seeds. Two of them are Big Ten teams – UCLA and USC – and the NCAA tries to avoid conference vs. conference matchups as much as possible in the early rounds.
The other No. 1 seed in most projections – Notre Dame – is another possible regional destination for the Hoosiers.
The one way for Indiana to change its destination is to improve its seed. That process will begin again with a difficult game at Oregon at 9 p.m. ET on Friday.
The Ducks (14-5, 5-3) present a formidable challenge, but also an enticing opportunity. Oregon is No. 36 in the NCAA NET rankings, so a win in Eugene would constitute a Quad 1 victory for the Hoosiers.
After that, Indiana plays at Washington at 9 p.m. ET on Monday. The Huskies (13-7, 4-4) have slipped of late. They were beaten 85-61 at Alaska Airlines Arena on Wednesday and have lost three of four. Their NET ranking would make this a Quad 2 opportunity at the moment.
A West Coast sweep would do wonders for Indiana’s resume. A 1-1 trip, depending on which team was beaten, would allow Indiana to slightly improve their seed. Getting swept out West would put the Hoosiers in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation.
The latter scenario has to be avoided at all costs. When Indiana returns to the Midwest, six of its remaining nine games are against teams in the top 30 in the NET.
With a NCAA NET ranking at No. 49 as of Thursday, Indiana doesn’t have much more room for error.
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