Hubert Davis often points to 3 keys for UNC basketball. The Tar Heels aren't checking the boxes

Hubert Davis often points to 3 keys for UNC basketball. The Tar Heels aren’t checking the boxes

Posted by author January 23, 2025 Basketball

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UNC basketball coach Hubert Davis is sticking with his points of emphasis as it relates to the Tar Heels becoming the best version of themselves.

“I say it every day. And actually, before the (Cal) game, I said, ‘I’m not wavering, I’m not moving.’ My message is consistent with them,” Davis said Jan. 15 after the Tar Heels’ 26-point win against Cal at the Smith Center.

“I am desperate — and these are the exact words that I said to them — I desperately want them to see and experience what this team would look like if we fully commit to becoming the best defensive team, rebounding team, and taking care of the basketball. And I’ve said that since the team has gotten together, and I will say that for the remainder of the year.”

Through 20 games, UNC (12-8, 5-3 ACC) hasn’t been able to consistently check those boxes. The Tar Heels followed that win against the Golden Bears with consecutive one-point losses to Stanford and Wake Forest. The Heels haven’t lost back-to-back games by a single point since 1968.

UNC has matched its loss total from last season and is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years. There are 12 games remaining in the regular season, including an upcoming four-game stretch following Saturday’s game against Boston College that could ultimately determine the Tar Heels’ fate for March Madness.

Here’s a breakdown of how UNC has performed in the three areas consistently emphasized by Hubert Davis.

UNC isn’t rebounding like past UNC teams

A staple of Carolina basketball has been its ability to dominate on the glass, whether it’s ending defensive possessions with a rebound or creating extra opportunities with offensive boards. The Tar Heels have averaged more than 40 rebounds per game in 16 of the last 20 seasons, including nine of the last 10.

So far, UNC is averaging 37.9 rebounds per game, including 9.45 offensive rebounds, with a rebounding margin of plus-1 ½ . On pace for their worst finish in rebounding margin since the 2012-13 season (plus-1.6), the Heels are 264th in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2%). That percentage would be UNC’s worst since KenPom.com’s inception in 1996-97.

Jalen Washington is UNC’s leading rebounder (5.0 rebounds per game). If that stat sticks, it would be the lowest rebounding average to lead a Tar Heel squad since 1951 and only the second time in program history a leading rebounder has averaged fewer than six rebounds per game. Consistent post production from the frontcourt was seen as a major question mark in the preseason. There haven’t been any answers to this point in the season.

UNC basketball defense has been better, but hasn’t been able to close

The Tar Heels are 31st in defensive efficiency and 63rd in effective field goal percentage defense (47.7%), according to KenPom.com. Both of those marks would be good enough for second place under Hubert Davis if they hold for the rest of the season.

UNC’s effective field goal percentage defense, which was above 50% in 11 of the first 15 games, has been below 50% in the last five. A tough nonconference slate contributed to most of those bad defensive performances, but UNC hasn’t been able to consistently stack stops down the stretch. Six of UNC’s eight losses played out in similar fashion, including its four defeats that were decided by one possession.

UNC had a lead in the final four minutes against Kansas, Michigan State, Florida and Stanford. Those teams combined to outscore the Heels 41-14 in the closing minutes. Louisville and Wake Forest also got it done against UNC in the final five minutes, using double-digit runs to take command. UNC’s defense has improved of late, but the Tar Heels haven’t been able to string together stops late in games.

Turnovers have tripped up Tar Heels

UNC started the season as one of the best teams in the nation at taking care of the ball, pacing the pack with an average of 7.8 turnovers through the first four games. The Tar Heels have taken a big step back, logging double-digit turnovers in 14 of the last 16 games. With UNC playing at the 14th-fastest pace in the nation, there are more possessions and more turnovers, but the Tar Heels haven’t been able to limit those miscues in their eight losses.

UNC has averaged 10.5 turnovers in those defeats, which opponents turned into an average of 12 points. As a whole, while UNC’s defense has improved to No. 2 among ACC teams in league play, the Tar Heels’ offensive efficiency has regressed to 14th among conference squads. With its roster limitations, UNC can’t afford to stack problems, particularly with careless, live-ball turnovers.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.