The two teams with the best records in the West will represent their conference out in Las Vegas. The sprightly Houston Rockets are the upstarts of the year, while the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking nothing short of dominant. Saturday night’s duel is a celebration of pestering defense and early-season hustle, with OKC opening as a decent favorite on a neutral floor.
For the many concerted efforts to make this in-season tournament stick — special scheduling, saturated courts, Michael Imperioli and Rosario Dawson scheming from the Bellagio — nothing should actually lock us in like, you know, good basketball. The 19-5 Thunder and 17-8 Rockets jointly fit the bill.
First, the favorites. Even without Chet Holmgren patrolling the paint, this is a championship-caliber defense. The Thunder allow the fewest points in the NBA, and they comfortably lead the league in steals. Alex Caruso is first in deflections per game, and Jalen Williams is second in individual defensive rating — with four teammates following him in the league’s top 15. Mark Daigneault’s squad is fearless on switches, and they generate enough pressure to warp any opposing game plan. In Tuesday’s quarterfinal matchup, they got the Dallas Mavericks to cough up 19 turnovers. The kicker? Luka Dončić had more giveaways (six) than made shots (five).
The Thunder offense is certainly respectable in its own right. Its scoring triptych of Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein are all shooting better than 50 percent from the field. And four players are averaging at least two made 3s per game. You’d think a team this defensively oriented would look to conserve some energy on the other end or at least play a slower and more grinding style of basketball. But Oklahoma City operates with the ninth-fastest pace in the sport and smashes opponents in transition. Williams has emerged as a scintillant second creator behind Gilgeous-Alexander, who is putting together another MVP-type season on career-best shooting volume. In two games against Houston this year, SGA is averaging more than 30 points on 71 percent true shooting.
As you can see, there’s a reason Oklahoma City is currently favored to win the West (+200 at BetMGM).
That said, the Rockets are headaches in their own right. They lead the league in rebounding percentage and slot in right behind the Thunder with the second-best defensive rating. They successfully misshaped Tuesday’s quarterfinal game against the Golden State Warriors — a 91-90 scrapper that gave us serious late-90s NBA vibes. Under Ime Udoka, Houston has bulked up on the boards and closed out well along the perimeter.
Its offense surely isn’t as polished as Oklahoma City’s — the top two scorers, Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green, are still shooting below 40 percent from the floor. But Houston dominates second-chance scoring margins and gets to the line often. Alperen Şengün is stringing together an award-worthy season, too, coming to Vegas averaging better than 18 points, 10 boards and five assists per night.
Both sides have one win apiece head-to-head. In a 119-116 win on Dec. 1, the Rockets got 38 points out of VanVleet on just 19 shot attempts. Jabari Smith Jr. and Dillon Brooks each hit multiple 3s.
Oddsmakers appropriately see this as a low-scoring affair, with the total opening at 212.5 points. But 89 percent of bettors have hit the over on BetMGM, and 71 percent are rolling with the Thunder on spread bets.
Best players to wear both jerseys:
Most consequential trade: What else could it be?! Oct. 27, 2013 — After they were unable to agree on a contract extension, OKC sent James Harden to Houston in exchange for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and two first-round picks that became Steven Adams and Mitch McGary.
(Photo by Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
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