How To Predict Your Flight Will Be Delayed And Get A Leg Up Rebooking Travel

by Gary Leff on August 7, 2024

When I’m traveling I almost always try to predict whether my flight will be delayed. That can give me an hours-long head start in getting re-routed, rather than stuck at the airport. I’ll have access to more flight choices, especially if I can leave earlier. And I won’t be fighting with as many passengers over a limited number of seats, since I’ll be ahead of them in grabbing what’s available – and with full planes, that’s often very little.

That means looking up:

• Where my plane is coming from, not just the city the aircraft is flying in from but its whole routing for the day.
• Weather in the area, as well as along the route for the aircraft that day.
• Airport conditions, and any FAA notices.

I’ll Google my flight number and then look up the flight at Flightradar24.com. That lets me select the aircraft’s registration number and look up where that aircraft is going, flight by flight. (Flightaware.com also has a link for ‘Track inbound plane’ which shows you where the plane is coming from – keep choosing it over and over to see the day’s journey.)

These sites overlay weather, though I’ll look up weather in each city. They also show airport delays. And I look up any National Airspace Notices that may involve delay programs for an airport (or can be airline-specific).

Time and again I’ll identify risks to my travel day. This isn’t foolproof.

• It doesn’t tell you where your crew is coming from. Your plane may be fine, but it might not have crew.
• Planes go mechanical. And a likely delay – say that your flight is running an hour behind, but your airline hasn’t posted a delay of your flight yet – doesn’t always translate into an actual delay. For instance it might make up a few minutes here or there along the way (less likely if you see it is doing quick turns in each city) or a different plane might be assigned at a hub along the way.

Still, when I see I’m probably delayed, I’ll often call the airline with a suggestion for another flight I might take. I use Expert Flyer to look up availability of seats – but you can just search your airline’s website (or Expedia) for seats for sale between the cities where you’re trying to travel. That way I am more likely to get where I’m going that day.

It may seem like a lot of work, consulting different places to predict delays – and it’s all probabilistic. Fortunately for those who aren’t used to picking up bits and pieces of information from a number of sites, the Flighty app now does it for you.

Flighty is using aviation authority data and machine learning to provide early warnings of delays, and when a delay is official, the reason for the delay. Most delays are due to airspace issues and late aircraft, both of which Flighty will monitor.

The app is able to predict delays “hours in advance,” and give information to Flighty users that airlines often decline to share. The result is more control over travel plans.

I like being on top of this because airlines frequently give you little information, or subject you to rolling delays. Your flight might show on time when you know that’s impossible because it’s boarding time and the aircraft isn’t even at the gate yet – and will still need to deplane passengers from the last flight before boarding yours. I don’t have to waste time at the gate. I can stay in the lounge longer.

This is an Apple ecosystem app, free to download, but delay features are part of their Pro subscription version ($4 per week or $48 per year).

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