ATLANTA — Even with a 12-team College Football Playoff, who’s No. 3 at the end of the season still matters.
So does No. 13. And No. 18. And certainly No. 25.
Ohio State and Notre Dame will meet Monday night to determine the national champion in the latest iteration of college football’s postseason, but the new format and its trickle-down effect to more than three dozen non-Playoff bowl games has made it tougher than ever for the voters of the Associated Press poll to assemble a final ballot for a postseason Top 25 that carries almost a century of college football record-keeping significance.
Should Big Ten champion Oregon (13-1) be ahead of runner-up Penn State (13-2) even though the Nittany Lions advanced one round further in the Playoff? Georgia (11-3) beat Texas (12-3) twice but lost in the CFP quarterfinals. The Longhorns reached the semifinals and played Ohio State tight deep into the fourth quarter. Should the Bulldogs or Longhorns be ranked higher?
The only games Indiana (11-2) lost were to the teams playing for the national title. For all the hand-wringing about the Hoosiers’ schedule, that’s a pretty nice resume line.
And what about the other bowl games? Should Alabama (9-4) be extra-penalized for losing the ReliaQuest Bowl with a full complement of players against a depleted Michigan squad?
How far should Miami fall after playing the second half of its Pop-Tarts Bowl loss to Iowa State without quarterback Cam Ward? But is it fair to not give the Cyclones full credit for their comeback victory? Also, how seriously are we really expected to take a bowl game whose biggest star is a costumed toaster pastry that gets eaten by the winning team?
“This is probably the most difficult final poll I’ve ever had to do,” said the Houston Chronicle’s Kirk Bohls, who is in his 36th consecutive season (he thinks) as a voter. “So much harder now.”
The sport has come a long way from the days when the votes of sportswriters and coaches would — often unsatisfyingly — settle debates about who is No. 1. The Bowl Championship Series helped, but not always. Remember LSU (the BCS champion) and USC (the final AP poll’s No. 1 team) splitting the championship in 2003?
The four-team Playoff was another improvement. Ohio State won the first one of those to cap the 2014 season and leaned into it by renaming the intersection of Lane and High streets approaching Ohio Stadium “Undisputed Way”.
Usually, the teams that made the four-team Playoff would fill the top four spots in the final AP rankings in some order. Pretty easy.
Now, though, it’s a riddle.
“With the exception of No. 1 and 2, I am not ranking based on Playoff finish. For example, I have Oregon No. 3 on my final ballot,” Brett McMurphy of the Action Network said.
“There’s no denying who No. 1 will be. The results of the games will speak for themselves there,” said Amie Just of the Lincoln Star Journal in Nebraska. “And I don’t, typically, change a lot in the bottom half of my ballot because of the roster churn. But figuring out where to place Georgia and Oregon and some of the other teams will be a philosophy exercise, and not everyone will agree.”
What is the correct balance between regular-season success and Playoff results?
“I am a firm believer that the entire season should be taken into account and we shouldn’t minimize what happened in September, but the Playoff is the Playoff: big games against quality opponents,” said Matt Brown, college sports editor for The Athletic and an AP poll voter for seven years. “If the Playoff is going to be factored into the rankings, then it should hold a bit more weight — especially for the teams still alive in the semifinals/finals.”
Before you say nobody cares about the AP poll — too late? — let me stop you right there and tell you that you’re wrong, while also explaining that, yes, I might be biased.
I worked for the AP for nearly 30 years, the last 20 overseeing the Top 25 as the national college football writer. The poll is no longer my job, but being part of it for so long taught me its importance in college football.
The AP poll, which started in 1936, is the one consistency in the history of college football. It is the document of record for the season, even now that the CFP committee determines who plays for the national title.
And fans and programs care about where their teams finish.
The last time Alabama finished outside the top 10 was 2007, Nick Saban’s first season. That final ranking is going to be another mark on Kalen DeBoer’s first year as Saban’s successor.
More generally, sports fans like rankings. Anything that allows a fan to say my team is better than yours is important.
I’m curious how voters handle this. I think here’s how I would do it.
I’d be open to having Oregon as high as No. 2 if Ohio State wins a lopsided championship game against Notre Dame. The Ducks should be no worse than No. 3.
Georgia ahead of Texas feels right, which also probably keeps the Bulldogs ahead of Penn State, which doesn’t feel quite as right.
Arizona State (11-3) came into the Playoff ranked 10th in the AP poll, lost an overtime quarterfinal game to Texas and probably deserves to move up because most of the teams including and behind current No. 9 Indiana washed out in the postseason (SMU, Clemson, Alabama, Miami and South Carolina). And current No. 21 Illinois should be ahead of South Carolina.
Miami (10-3) probably should only drop a little from No. 15, maybe just far enough for Iowa State (11-3) and BYU (11-2) to be ahead of the Hurricanes.
On Tuesday morning, the AP will again have the final say on the college football season. Some people will be mad at the rankings. It is the oldest tradition in the sport, and no playoff will change it.
(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
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