BYU begins Big 12 play in less than two weeks when Arizona State comes to the Marriott Center New Year’s. I am certainly excited to see what BYU does this season with Egor Demin and company, but it also doesn’t hurt to peek ahead to what BYU’s roster could look like next season when #1 recruit comes to Provo looking to shake up the college landscape.

Who is leaving

BYU loses four scholarship players to graduation — Trevin Knell, Mawot Mag, Fousseyni Traore, and Trey Stewart. While it’s fun to dream about Egor Demin teaming up with AJ, I think it’s safe to assume that he will declare for the NBA Draft where he will almost certainly be a top 10 pick and will push to be a top 5 or even top 3 pick.

BYU’s collective could probably round up a couple million to try to lure Egor back for another year, but the guaranteed money in the NBA and the risk of injury for another year of college would probably just be too much for Egor. The #10 pick in this year’s NBA Draft has a $5.5M salary; the #5 pick’s salary is $8.3M. Those salaries are for multiple years.

Kanon Catchings is a decision I will be monitoring. Kanon has first round talent and upside. His defense has been impressive and he has the size and scoring ability to be a first round pick, but the consistency has not been there yet. Kanon may decide another year at BYU is best for his NBA Draft stock. Him and AJ would form a tantalizing wing scoring duo that, honestly, may be the best in the country. AJ should be a 20+ ppg scorer and will draw the main attention of the defense. That should generate a lot of great looks for Kanon who could flourish as a secondary scorer with NBA scouts watching him every night. Kanon’s decision will partially dictate what BYU does in the transfer portal.

The Returnees

Outside of freshmen Egor Demin and Kanon Catchings, BYU has 8 scholarship-level players with eligibility. The indicated class is what they will be next season.

• Dallin Hall — Senior
• Richie Saunders — Senior
• Keba Keita — Senior
• Mihailo Boskovic — Senior
• Dawson Baker — RS Senior
• Elijah Crawford — Sophomore
• Brody Kozlowski — Sophomore
• Khadim Mboup — RS Freshman

On Mboup, sources tell me that Khadim has enrolled at BYU for winter semester and will officially join the team once Fall Semester ends December 20. He is expected to redshirt this season. The 6-foot-9 Senegal native turned 18 in September and committed to BYU back in July, but needed to finish up some academic stuff before enrolling at BYU.

Incoming Freshmen

AJ Dybantsa, Xavion Staton, and Chamberlain Burgess are the current members of the 2025 recruiting class. Chamberlain is expected to immediately go on a mission before enrolling. Staton is a 7-footer who is an elite shot blocker and will share time with Keita at the five spot.

The College Basketball Landscape

We’ve seen over the last decade is that experience wins in college basketball. That will continue to be the case, but BYU is coming up on and has the opportunity to take advantage of what I think will be a slight shift in the college basketball landscape.

This is the last real year of the “Covid” seniors, those fifth and sixth year guys that got a free year early in their career during the 2020-2021 season that didn’t count against eligibility. 4 of the 6 Preseason AP All-Americans this year were Covid seniors. This is the last year that will happen. Upperclassmen will always be the backbone of a winning formula, but without the super seniors, high-end freshmen will become more valuable than they have the last ~5 years. BYU has the chance this next season to strike the perfect balance. They bring in THE best freshman in AJ Dybantsa along with an elite shot blocker in Xavion Staton and can pair those two with an experienced college group that will look to compete for a Final Four.

What Should BYU Do?

BYU’s first priority should be to retain the returning players. Dallin Hall may not be an All-American point guard, but BYU should absolutely push to retain him and have him be the starting point guard. Dallin has proven he can produce at the Big 12 level, and although his role is evolving this year next to Egor, he can be the undisputed starting point guard next season. Having a 4-year starting point guard that stayed at one school his entire career is very rare these days in college basketball and would be an advantage for BYU.

Richie Saunders has taken another leap this year and is incredibly valuable to BYU, Dawson Baker is showing that he has the makings of a scoring bucket off the bench, and Keba Keita fits BYU’s cultural perfectly and has arguably been college basketball’s best rebounder. Those guys are essential to retain. Outside of them, Boskovic has stretch four capability that is valuable, Elijah Crawford has a clear path to backup point guard duties and the starter once Dallin graduate, Brody Kozlowski is a fantastic shooter, and Khadim Mboup is a wildcard with high upside.

Virtually every team experiences attrition to the transfer portal, and I expect at least one of those guys to hit the portal.

I expect BYU to round out its roster from the transfer portal and possibly an addition from overseas. Honestly, I would be surprised if BYU added more freshmen, unless it was a European player — they don’t need more freshmen (with few exceptions) if they are serious about winning a national title. BYU has two high end freshmen already and will be better suited to win if they prioritize more experience. Maybe someone like Tyran Stokes — the #1 recruit in the 2026 class who was high school and AAU teammates with Dybantsa — reclassifies to 2025 and is interested in teaming up with AJ. Rumblings suggest hometown Louisville would be the front runner to land stokes, but he was truly interested in BYU you’d have to make a run.

Depending on what players leave to the portal or head to the NBA, BYU will likely look to add anywhere between 2 and 4 more players to next season’s roster. A piece BYU absolutely needs to add is at least one shooter. Trevin Knell will be gone, and whatever you think of him, he is a 38% 3-point shooter in his career against power conference opponents and impacts BYU’s spacing. Kevin Young has said you can never have enough shooting, so I expect BYU to hit the portal and add an elite guard/wing shooter. This next part is purely speculation from me — Utah State sophomore guard Mason Falslev is averaging 18 ppg and shooting 40%+ from three for a 10-1 Utah State team. He hit the portal last season before ultimately returning to Logan. Does he hit the portal this offseason searching for a bigger stage and pay day? He would certainly be a target for BYU.

Regardless of what Kanon does, I think BYU should also add a stretch four. Boskovic has that ability and maybe he turns a corner in Big 12 play that you feel really confident about him, but BYU will want premium floor spacing. AJ’s passing has noticeably improved this season as a high school senior, and having a reliable stretch four will space the floor for a coach in Kevin Young who knows how to take advantage of space.

What could the roster look like?

This is a VERY preliminary exercise (we’re only in the middle of December!), but it’s still a fun scenario and something BYU’s coaches are already looking towards.

Below is what, I believe, a best-case scenario and semi-realistic BYU roster could look like. At least one of those guys will transfer out and Catchings could declare for the NBA draft, but BYU has pieces in place to be a team that competes for a Final Four berth if they retain their top players. The below roster would be a perfect blend of experience in the program, high-end freshmen, returning young players, and sprinkling in key additions from the portal.

• Dallin Hall
• Richie Saunders
• Keba Keita
• Dawson Baker
• AJ Dybantsa
• Kanon Catchings
• Xavion Staton
• Elijah Crawford
• Khadim Mboup
• Mihailo Boskovic
• Brody Kozlowski
• Transfer Portal shooter
• Transfer Portal stretch four
• Transfer Portal or Euro player that fills in for at least one player that will inevitably transfer