How NFL Playoff Picture is Impacted By Chiefs Win, Ravens vs. Texans Result
This post will be updated live as games go final, but includes conditional possibilities based on the results of Christmas Day games, barring ties.
In the spring months when the NFL schedule is mapped out, it’s a nearly impossible task to predict what teams will be relevant to the playoff picture late in the season. This year’s schedule aficianados—and surely, helpful schedule optimizing algorithms—did great with their selection of the four teams scheduled for Christmas Day.
All four teams—the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans—are relevant to the NFL playoff picture in the AFC. Here’s how the playoff picture looks as of Wednesday’s outcomes.
Later this week, several teams can clinch playoff positioning.
After the Chiefs beat the Steelers 29–10, they clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, earning themselves home field advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
|
Seed |
Team |
Record |
Playoff Status |
Playoff Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
15–1 |
Clinched No. 1 seed |
100% |
|
2 |
Buffalo Bills |
12–3 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
3 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
10–6 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
4 |
Houston Texans |
9–6 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
5 |
Baltimore Ravens |
10–5 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
6 |
Los Angeles Chargers |
9–6 |
Clinch playoff spot with win OR Colts loss + Dolphins loss |
94% |
|
7 |
Denver Broncos |
9–6 |
Clinch playoff spot with win |
76% |
|
8 |
Indianapolis Colts |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
14% |
|
9 |
Miami Dolphins |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
9% |
|
10 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
7% |
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At stake for the Ravens is seeding. They would leap above the Steelers with a win today after Pittsburgh lost to Kansas City earlier in the day.
|
Seed |
Team |
Record |
Playoff Status |
Playoff Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
15–1 |
Clinched No. 1 seed |
100% |
|
2 |
Buffalo Bills |
12–3 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
3 |
Baltimore Ravens |
11-5 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
4 |
Houston Texans |
9–7 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
10-6 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
6 |
Los Angeles Chargers |
9–6 |
Clinch playoff spot with win OR Colts loss + Dolphins loss |
94% |
|
7 |
Denver Broncos |
9–6 |
Clinch playoff spot with win |
76% |
|
8 |
Indianapolis Colts |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
14% |
|
9 |
Miami Dolphins |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
9% |
|
10 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
7% |
The main difference in this scenario is the Steelers retain the No. 3 seed since they hold a tiebreaker over the Ravens.
|
Seed |
Team |
Record |
Playoff Status |
Playoff Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
15–1 |
Clinched No. 1 seed |
100% |
|
2 |
Buffalo Bills |
12–3 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
3 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
10–6 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
4 |
Houston Texans |
10–6 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
5 |
Baltimore Ravens |
10–6 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
6 |
Los Angeles Chargers |
9–6 |
Clinch playoff spot with win OR Colts loss + Dolphins loss |
94% |
|
7 |
Denver Broncos |
9–6 |
Clinch playoff spot with win |
76% |
|
8 |
Indianapolis Colts |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
14% |
|
9 |
Miami Dolphins |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
9% |
|
10 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
7–8 |
No clinching scenario this week |
7% |
With no NFC teams playing on Christmas, there will be no Wednesday change to the playoff picture. Here’s how things look:
|
Seed |
Team |
Record |
Playoff Status |
Playoff Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Detroit Lions |
13–2 |
Clinched Division |
100% |
|
2 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
12–3 |
Clinched Playoff Spot |
100% |
|
3 |
Los Angeles Rams |
9–6 |
Clinched Playoff Spot |
86% |
|
4 |
Atlanta Falcons |
8–7 |
Clinch NFC South with win + TB loss |
58% |
|
5 |
Minnesota Vikings |
13–2 |
Clinched playoff spot |
100% |
|
6 |
Green Bay Packers |
11–4 |
Clinched Wild Card |
100% |
|
7 |
Washington Commanders |
10–5 |
Clinch berth with win or TB loss |
95% |
|
8 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
8–7 |
No clinching scenario this week |
48% |
|
9 |
Seattle Seahawks |
8–7 |
No clinching scenario this week |
14% |
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