By Jovan Buha, Sam Amick, Christian Clark and Anthony Slater

It’s been exactly one month since the Feb. 6 trade deadline and a lot has changed around the Western Conference.

The Los Angeles Lakers have ascended from No. 5 to No. 2 in the West and are one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have gone from tied for 10th to sixth, looking like a team none of the top seeds will want to face in the first round. Just about everything that could go wrong for the Dallas Mavericks has, including more recently a season-ending ACL tear for Kyrie Irving. And the Oklahoma City Thunder remain overlooked on the national stage, quietly posting one of the best statistical seasons in NBA history.

To break down the state of the conference, including the fallout from the trade deadline, are The Athletic’s Sam Amick, Jovan Buha, Christian Clark and Anthony Slater with their perspective on where things stand with roughly six weeks left until the playoffs.

Which Western Conference team improved their roster the most this season?

Amick: It’s the Golden State Warriors. While the Lakers landing Luka Dončić was as massive a move as you’ll see in the Association, the fact remains that they had to give up a superstar of their own (31-year-old, 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis), a good young player (Max Christie) and a 2029 first-round pick to get him. Golden State, meanwhile, said goodbye to 30-year-old, one-time All-Star (Andrew Wiggins), a bevy of role players (Kyle Anderson, Dennis Schröder, Lindy Waters III) and draft-pick considerations (a 2025 first and a 2031 second).

Golden State was desperate to add a legitimate star to join Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in their twilight years, and Jimmy Butler’s rare pedigree — two-way, high-IQ player with a well-chronicled ability to carry an elite team almost on his own — has been a fantastic fit. And considering the Warriors came so close to reuniting with Kevin Durant before the Butler deal went down, there’s a good argument to be made that this partnership has as much, if not more, potential because of Butler’s defensive impact.

Buha: I’m torn between the Lakers and the Warriors. I think the Warriors technically improved their roster to a larger degree than the Lakers did, which is the spirit of this question. However, the Lakers made the more important upgrade and have gone from a team in the backend of the West playoff mix to the No. 2 seed and group that has a legitimate chance to make the conference finals, if not go further. I think making the jump from an above-average group to a contender is more notable than going from an average group to a good team, so I lean toward the Lakers. But these were the two most consequential trades for this season.

Clark: The Butler trade invigorated the Warriors, who are defending at an elite level since he came aboard. As impressive as they’ve looked, I still think it’s the Lakers. Dončić raises their floor and their ceiling. He was struggling with his outside shot initially after coming back from a calf injury, but in his last three games, he’s found a rhythm. Dončić’s excellence in the half court, his chemistry with LeBron James, and the group of long, versatile wings L.A. can surround them with is going to make the Lakers a tough out in the postseason.

Slater: Warriors. They were going nowhere. In the 36 games prior to the deadline, they were 13-23. That’s two-plus months of horrible basketball. Even with Curry, they had the fifth-worst offense in the league during that stretch, better than only the Washington Wizards, Orlando Magic, Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets. They were a lottery team. Their belief had disintegrated. With Butler, they’re a confident 7-1 with the inside track at the sixth seed. I’m not of the Draymond Green belief that they’re a true title contender, but it’s clear they’re a whole lot better and more threatening due to a single transaction.

Which West team improved their group the most long term?

Amick: Cue the legendary voice of longtime Lakers announcer Lawrence Tanter…

“Your Los Angeles Lakers…”

While the Mavs jettisoned Dončić, in large part, because of concerns that his alleged bad habits would lead to a physical breakdown before his prime was over, that prediction will remain irrelevant so long as he’s available and playing at an elite level for the Lakers. What’s more, it’s fair to wonder if the personal nature of that criticism might be the very thing that inspires him to prove them wrong for the next decade or so.

As I’ve written several times, there’s an old Phil Jackson philosophy that played a part in the way Lakers owner Jeanie Buss saw this deal. The legendary Lakers coach believed that players didn’t truly mature until their late 20s, meaning those younger years needed to be handled with a greater level of patience. As the Lakers see it, Dončić will only get wiser, more responsible and more dynamic from here. If they’re right, that’s the kind of truth that will tilt the playing board all across the league.

Buha: The Lakers. They received a golden off-ramp to their post-LeBron future. Dončić is signed through 2026, but they are doing everything in their power to get him to extend or re-sign, depending on how he wants to structure his next contract. They should have a top-five player — at worst — for at least the next half-decade. Depending on how much longer James plays, they’ll also be armed with cap space and draft assets in the summer of 2026 to add his next star running mate.

I give the Spurs a hat-tip because I think the healthy trio of Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle is dynamic and has the potential to grow into the foundation of a championship core over the next two to three years.

Clark: The Lakers. Pairing James and Davis together resulted in a championship in 2020, but that duo wasn’t going to win any more rings as teammates. James turned 40 in December, and Davis will be 32 next week. Trading for Dončić improves the Lakers’ outlook now and gives them a plan post-LeBron. Dončić was 25 years old at the time of the trade. If the Lakers can convince Dončić to sign an extension, he’ll be wearing purple and gold into his 30s.

Slater: Lakers. Easy call. They just acquired the mid-prime years of a generational perimeter talent. When Dončić turns 30 (presumably in his fifth Lakers season, if an extension is signed), Davis will be on the edge of 36 and Butler will be nearing 40. The Mavericks and Warriors voiced a clearly-stated win-now motivation to their deals. The outcry about the Dončić deal is about what Dallas delivered Los Angeles in the long term.

Which West team do you have the most questions about? 

Amick: The Rockets. They were rolling five weeks ago, sitting there as the surprise (second-place) team in the West and determined to evaluate this group for the entire season rather than go star-chasing at the trade deadline (including the choice not to pursue Phoenix’s Kevin Durant). But the outlook has changed quite drastically since then, with Houston losing 11 of its last 16 games, in large part, because of health issues (Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason top that list) while falling to fifth.

So, what does this mean for their fascinating future? That much remains to be seen, but questions remain about their core that will be revisited by the front office in the offseason.

The Rockets appear to be all-in on Alperen Şengün as a building block, but Jalen Green’s long-term prospects on that front are widely considered to be somewhat tenuous (and germane to the question of whether they chase another star this summer).

Amen Thompson is seen by many as a rising star in his own right, but his production is inconsistent. Beyond the veterans like VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, they have a roster full of young talent that could make a big trade all that much easier to pull off. But first, they must spend the rest of this up-and-down run forming that final opinion of the current iteration of this team.

Buha: The Timberwolves. Last season, they were the No. 3 seed — just a game back of No. 1 — and beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets en route to their first conference finals appearance since 2004. Now, they’re looking like a likely Play-In team that’ll be heavy underdogs against Oklahoma City, the Lakers or Denver in the first round. Their upside is clear. Anthony Edwards gives them a theoretical chance in any series. Their defense, though worse this season, is still scary. But the Julius Randle trade was an absolute disaster, and I think it’ll likely lead to a first-round exit.

(Photo of Anthony Edwards, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Naz Reid of the Minnesota Timberwolves: Bruce Kluckhohn / Imagn Images)

Clark: The Pelicans. Last season, they won 49 games. This season, only the Hornets, Wizards and Utah Jazz have fewer wins. New Orleans ownership has important decisions to make on several levels. Do the Pelicans move on from coach Willie Green? And if they do, will executive vice president David Griffin be allowed to pick his fourth different coach? Also, what does the organization do with Zion Williamson? The former No. 1 overall pick has played well for the past two months. Do the Pelicans finally cut bait and try to sell high on him?

Slater: The Jazz. Unless they get Cooper Flagg, where the heck is this all going? Will Lauri Markkanen be available this offseason? What’s that? You want someone actually relevant to the playoff conversation? I guess the Suns don’t qualify. I’ll go with the Grizzlies. Can Ja Morant stay healthy enough to lift them to a deep playoff run? How does their young depth perform on an elevated stage? It seems like they’ve explored some large-scale trade options over the last 12 months (even the Butler idea). If they flame out, do they get desperate this summer?

Aside from the top-five seeds, which West team is most dangerous?

Amick: The Warriors. They’re 9-1 with Butler playing since the deal with Miami went down (9-2 overall), with the league’s third-best net rating, second-best defensive rating and fourth-best offensive rating in that span. It’s still a small sample size, but that’s the kind of team profile that screams contender. And that, make no mistake, is a statement that nobody was making before Butler came to town.

Don’t overlook the motivation factor here, either. Curry and Green know their window is almost closed, and Butler has much to prove after his messy exit from Miami. That combination of experience, intensity and timing could prove to be quite potent in the playoffs.

Buha: Golden State. I think Butler was exactly what the Warriors needed: a true No. 2 option, a two-way dawg and a player capable of carrying Curry-less lineups in the playoffs. The Warriors certainly have holes — their consistent turnover issues and interior defense come to mind — but the Curry-Butler-Green trio is going to be a nightmare for opponents in the first round. They won the title in 2022 and made the conference semifinals in 2023. That core is still present, and Curry and Playoff Jimmy are both capable of matching, if not surpassing just about any opposing star in a seven-game series. The Timberwolves also deserve an honorable mention, though as mentioned, I’m skeptical of their ability to beat one of the top three seeds.

Clark: The one game Davis played for Dallas was so intriguing, I thought the Mavericks had a chance to emerge from the West if they were fully healthy. But they’re not. Irving will miss the rest of this season and a significant chunk of next season. I’ll take the Warriors. The Butler addition makes them a scary defensive team, and Butler is a proven playoff performer. His ability to attack from the midrange and draw fouls complements Curry’s game well.

Slater: I would’ve said a healthy Dallas before Irving tore his ACL. So scratch that. I’ll go with either the Timberwolves or Warriors. We saw it all coalesce for Minnesota the first couple rounds last year. I could see another big Anthony Edwards run coming. On the Warriors side, they just have the brainpower and playoff history. Give them a motivated, healthy Butler, Curry and Draymond Green and two weeks to scout and prepare for a team and they’ll be tough to take down in any series, despite flaws.

GO DEEPER

With Kyrie Irving out and Luka Dončić in L.A., Mavericks’ ‘future’ is hazy

Who is the biggest threat to Oklahoma City in the West?

Amick: There weren’t many folks predicting this early on this season, but … the Nuggets. Not only was Denver 11-10 as of Dec. 7, but the vibes were far from immaculate internally.

Fast-forward three months, and Denver (39-22, third in the West) has put together an impressive body of work that looks a whole lot like the one that led to their title in 2023. It’s a heavy dose of Nikola Jokić’s unmatched brilliance, a reinvigorated Jamal Murray as his worthy running mate, and enough around them to make the whole program elite again.

They’re getting impact play from veterans like Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook (!), have enjoyed the ascension of Christian Braun as a core piece, and — as our John Hollinger pointed out recently — have a lack of depth that should be even more manageable when rotations are inevitably shortened in the postseason.

Third-year big man Peyton Watson has missed the past month with a knee sprain, but he’s back to provide key defensive contributions. Meanwhile, second-year guard Julian Strawther is expected to miss at least a month with a left knee injury. Fifth-year forward Zeke Nnaji, whose four-year, $32 million deal has been widely criticized in league circles, has shown encouraging signs of late (among them a plus-27 outing in a win against Detroit on Feb. 28 in which he had three blocks).

Buha: The Lakers. They’re 19-4 over their past 23 games, assuming various identities with Davis, with Dončić and without either superstar. They have been the league’s best defense over the past seven weeks, and remained in the top three with Dončić. Offensively, they’re just scratching the surface of what a Dončić -James-Austin Reaves attack looks like. Nonetheless, they’ve still hovered around the top 10 in offensive rating post-Dončić trade. The Lakers look like a group that, when fully formed, will be top 10 on both sides of the ball, and I think their star power, coaching and defense will be too much for any non-OKC West opponent (and give OKC some problems).

Denver, meanwhile, just isn’t good enough defensively. They’re 17th on the season and 21st since mid-January. Jokić is the best player in the league, my pick for MVP and capable of carrying them with historic numbers, but I don’t think they have the requisite shooting or defensive personnel to beat OKC.

Clark: The Nuggets. The Murray-Jokić two-man game is unstoppable when those two are in sync. Murray has been much better over the past month and a half compared to the start of the season. Since scoring 45 points in Dallas on Jan. 14, Murray is averaging 24.9 points on 53/44/91 shooting splits. Denver will need him to be sharp against Oklahoma City, a historically great defensive team.

Slater: Denver. They’re 23-9 since the shaky start. Murray has returned to at least 85 percent of his best form. He’s proven in the playoffs. Jokić is the best player in basketball. Braun has developed into a capable fifth piece in a lineup that includes Gordon and Porter Jr. It’s always tough to win at altitude.

(Top photo of LeBron James and Luka Dončić: Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty Images)