You’ve probably heard the whispers at some point:
Illinois might be the best team in the Big Ten.
The Illini are dark-horse Final Four contenders.
If this team comes together, there’s no telling how high it can climb.
Unfortunately, the reality for Illini coach Brad Underwood and his squad isn’t quite as rosy: a 17-8 overall record. Seventh place in the Big Ten standings and a 9-6 in conference play. Injuries, illness and a rickety recent 3-5 stretch.
Not a bad season, per se, but certainly not what the Illini faithful were hoping for.
Michigan, with an 11-2 Big Ten record, sits in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. With just five conference games left on Illinois’ slate, a conference title seems to be out of the equation for the Illini.
But a Big Ten regular-season run isn’t unthinkable. It’s a gauntlet that Illinois has to run to finish the season (five out of six remaining opponents are ranked), but the Wolverines are on the schedule. So are three of the other teams currently ahead of the Illini in the conference standings. And in any case, the Illini have an opportunity to earn an excellent seed in the NCAA Tournament – and put the country on notice.
To do that, though, they have to put together their best stretch of the season and finally reach that ever-elusive “ceiling.”
And with all the talk of it, a couple of questions naturally arise:
Exactly what is the Illini’s ceiling? And, of course, how do they get there?
First things first: Illinois must be healthy. Consider the record this season with both Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic in the lineup: 15-5 overall, and 7-3 in the Big Ten.
The Illini’s five losses with both? At then-No. 12 Michigan State, at Northwestern in overtime, in Birmingham against then-No. 8 Alabama, at home against then-No. 1 Tennessee and the sore thumb – at Rutgers.
Nonetheless, each of those losses came on the road in Big Ten play or against teams that currently rank in the top five in the current AP poll.
As for the wins, those are headlined by a home victory over then-No. 20 Wisconsin, a 32-point blowout on the road over then-No. 9 Oregon and a neutral-site escape against Missouri (currently ranked No. 21).
While the wins and losses are important, the numbers behind each contest are equally notable.
Yes, the Illini have been inconsistent. But there are a few key areas in which they deliver like clockwork:
Illinois ranks first in the country in both rebounding margin (plus-11.3) and total rebounds per game (44.6). They crash hard, throw their bodies around and take advantage of their size across the lineup. Even 6-foot-2 Kylan Boswell and 6-foot-1 Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn literally rebound well over their heads.
The Illini were lit up from beyond the arc by UCLA (11 threes) and Ohio State (12), and have allowed opponents to shoot 40 percent or better on threes in four of their past six games. But that’s a huge departure from the rest of the season, in which they held opponents to 27.8 percent three-point shooting through 19 games. Expect them Illinois to get that together as the roster mends.
With Boswell playing the role of shutdown defensive guard and Tomislav Ivisic and Morez Johnson Jr. erasing threats in the paint, Illinois has been nearly as tough to score on inside the arc as outside of it. Opponents are shooting 39.9 percent from the field against the Illini – a number that ranks first in the Big Ten and ninth in the country among Power Four squads.
The inconsistencies – and where Illinois has the most room for growth – lie on the other end of the floor.
There have been flashes.
The aforementioned 109 points at Oregon.
Or the 94 in Bloomington against Indiana.
Just last Saturday, Illinois hung 95 on Minnesota.
And what did all those outcomes have in common?
Threes. Either at an efficient rate, in high volume, or both.
In fact, in all nine of their games scoring 90 points or more, the Illini knocked down double-digit three-pointers – save for the Minnesota game, in which they went 9-for-16 (56.3 percent) and did most of their scoring damage in the paint.
Killer confidence. pic.twitter.com/wIOW84Us5X
— Illinois Men’s Basketball (@IlliniMBB) February 12, 2025
Returning to the questions at hand, it seems two elements must be in place for Illinois to reach its ceiling: good health and reliable perimeter shooting.
When the Illini are at their best, they’re putting up triples and they’re falling. At this point, you can expect Illinois to make it tough on an opponent to score and to win the rebounding battle every time out.
But the three-ball?
You never know which Illinois squad will show up beyond the arc. The past couple games, however, are a very nice start.
As for exactly what that ceiling looks like, we won’t know until the Illini are operating at full capacity and start hitting with consistency from deep. But that’s when a Final Four run becomes less of a pipe dream and more of a reality.
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