The New York Knicks have largely been declared winners this offseason, but at least one NBA scout doesn’t see it this way.

In an anonymous poll of NBA coaches, scouts, and executives by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, one Eastern Conference scout rained on the Knicks’ parade.

“I’m not convinced they’ll be better,” the scout told Bontemps.

This scout was down on the Knicks after losing Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency, paying nearly max money to OG Anunoby, and paying a high price to trade for Mikal Bridges.

This scout, of course, seems to be in the minority. Many other league insiders in Bontemps’ poll approved of the Knicks’ moves. Indeed, after coming a win shy of the Eastern Conference Finals despite numerous injuries to key players, many believe the Knicks, who are now armed with wings surrounding Jalen Brunson, should be Eastern Conference contenders.

However, not every team’s outlook is ironclad, and there’s a world where this scout’s pessimistic projection is correct. It’s likely a thought that has lingered in the back of Knicks fans’ minds this offseason.

Here’s a look at how the Knicks could fail to live up to expectations next season.

Note: this isn’t a prediction of how the Knicks season will go; it’s an attempt to make a realistic projection of how the Knicks could falter.

The center rotation is considerably weaker without Hartenstein

The Knicks will miss Hartenstein this season. The big man’s ability to pass and knock down floaters in the paint helped buoy the Knicks’ offense when they were short-handed. While Hartenstein didn’t exactly stretch the floor, his ability to catch the ball on the move and make plays for others gave the Knicks a new dimension on offense.

At the moment, the Knicks don’t have a replacement for that.

There shouldn’t be much drop-off on defense going from Hartenstein to Mitchell Robinson (advanced metrics favored Hartenstein, but Robinson is also a strong paint protector and rebounder), and it’s worth noting that Robinson defended Joel Embiid better than Hartenstein did in the playoffs.

But depth is also a concern now. Robinson has played over 70 games just once in his career and he’s played only 31 regular season games twice in the past four years. He’s coming off two surgeries to the same ankle. It seems fair to assume that Robinson will miss 10-plus games this season, which will thrust Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims into big roles. The Knicks can opt to go small, playing Julius Randle and Anunoby as their “big men,” but while that lineup should excel on offense, there will be some struggles on defense.

The Bridges-DiVincenzo swap impacts the offense more than expected

At the moment, it seems that Bridges will take DiVincenzo’s spot at the two in the starting lineup, placing him alongside Brunson, Anunoby, Randle, and Robinson.

On paper, it’s still a strong lineup. Bridges is a very good three-point shooter (37.5% for his career) and a better creator and one-on-one scorer than DiVincenzo. He’s also a much better defender.

But the Knicks may miss DiVincenzo in ways that are harder to quantify. DiVincenzo was one of the NBA’s three best three-point shooters last year. He has a quick release and deep range and extends defenses in ways Bridges probably won’t. DiVincenzo is also great at relocating and moving off the ball. When defenses keyed in on Brunson or Randle, it wasn’t uncommon to see DiVincenzo quickly slide into open space and line up a three. It’s not that Bridges can’t or hasn’t done that, but Bridges just spent 1.5 seasons as the lead creator in Brooklyn. It may take some time for him to get used to that type of off-ball role. Defenses will scramble just a little less to contest a Bridges three compared to DiVincenzo.

We’ve written before about how Tom Thibodeau’s first substitution next season should be DiVincenzo for Bridges. This would allow DiVincenzo to reunite with last year’s starters and make way for Bridges to run the second unit.

Make no mistake: the Knicks starters will be good, but don’t be surprised if swapping Bridges and Robinson for Hartenstein and DiVincenzo actually makes them a little clunkier on offense.

Regression from players coming off career years

With so many injuries last year, several Knicks players had to play big minutes. As a result, players like Brunson, DiVincenzo, Hartenstein, Josh Hart, and Miles McBride all arguably had the best years of their career last season. 

Hartenstein’s season was obviously so good that the Knicks couldn’t afford to keep him.

The other four players are still around, but will they be less impactful in reduced roles?

With Bridges and Randle (back) in the fold, Brunson’s load on offense will ease. That’s a good thing for Brunson long-term, as he carried too much responsibility on offense last season. The Knicks struggled to create offense when they relied on Brunson to beat an opponent off the dribble on nearly every possession.

But Brunson also finished fifth in MVP voting last season as the engine of the Knicks’ offense. Brunson is a scorer first and a playmaker second. Brunson can act as a floor general and will get easier looks next year. But his individual stats will come down, and it’s worth wondering if the Knicks’ offense is at its best with Brunson entirely at the helm.

DiVincenzo began last year on the bench and flourished when he became a starter. He often got up double-digit three-point attempts as a starter. Will he have that opportunity again this season, even in a Sixth Man role?

Hart is the type of player who seems more effective when he gets big minutes. Hart plays himself into a rhythm, and it seemed (anecdotally) that he got stronger as games went on, often making his best plays late, be it big offensive rebounds, clutch three-pointers, or coast-to-coast fastbreaks. Fewer minutes should give Hart more energy to make those hustle plays, but with so many wings on the Knicks’ roster, it’s also possible that Hart’s rhythm is impacted by playing 20-25 minutes, rather than the 40-plus he averaged after the All-Star break last year.

Finally, McBride is still something of a question mark. He’s always been a dogged defender, but his three-point shooting took such a massive leap last season (11 percentage points from 2022-23 to ’23-24) that it’ll be worth watching to see if he can remain a 40% three-point shooter. If McBride regresses to, say, 35% from three and doesn’t make a leap as a playmaker, it could impact the Knicks’ bench.

The East has gotten better

The Eastern Conference got better this offseason. The Boston Celtics aren’t going anywhere. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers strengthened their rosters and have equally strong claims to the Eastern Conference Finals as the Knicks. The Indiana Pacers made the Eastern Conference Finals last year and are brining back the same group; they should be better. The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers should are stronger and should challenge for 45-50 wins. The Miami Heat will never die.

These teams will likely all vulture wins from each other. Teams will have each other’s numbers unexpectedly. The Knicks could beat the Sixers one night, then lose to the Magic the next. That is how the East might go this year.

This isn’t exact math, but it will be harder for the Knicks to substantially top last year’s 50 wins when the competition has gotten better.

The positive: the Knicks’ floor is higher than it’s been in years

Here’s some positive spin: even if all of these things bear out, the Knicks should still be very good.

Barring major injuries (which would impact any team’s season), the Knicks still field a team that could easily go 10-deep. Brunson has proven himself to be an All-Star guard. The Knicks have plenty of shooting and defense around him and a head coach who is proven at wringing wins from his team.

It would be highly disappointing if the Knicks won 46 games instead of 53. But even still, that win total should easily keep them in the playoff mix.