Photo:

Fair Grounds / Hodges Photography

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Results

Dec. 21

Fair Grounds, race 9: Catching up on a result from two weeks back, I’m adding up-and-coming 3-year-old Kinetic to my watch list. A Godolphin homebred trained by two-time Eclipse Award winner Brad Cox, Kinetic has been quietly on the rise since August, when he rallied to win a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight over an older rival at Ellis Park.

Kinetic proceeded to conquer older rivals in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs and in a 1 1/8-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. In the latter race, he rocketed his final three furlongs in approximately 35.7 seconds to dominate by 2 3/4 lengths.

This set the stage for Kinetic’s stakes debut in the 1 1/16-mile Tenacious at Fair Grounds. After settling behind the leaders in third place, Kinetic rallied with determination to finish second by two lengths against his Grade 1-winning stablemate Saudi Crown. Even in defeat, Kinetic earned a career-best 99 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, so I’m optimistic this son of Street Sense will continue to improve as a 4-year-old in 2025 and find success at the graded-stakes level.

Thursday

Fair Grounds, race 8: A deep maiden special weight at Fair Grounds yielded two horses I’m adding to my watch list.

The first is Gunmetal, winner of the six-furlong sprint for juveniles. Acquired for $410,000 as a yearling, the son of 2017 Horse of the Year and hot sire Gun Runner entered off an encouraging series of workouts for Brad Cox and started as the 3-1 second choice.

It’s safe to say Gunmetal outran his odds. After pressing strong fractions of 21.88 and 44.89 seconds in second place, he ran his final quarter-mile in about 24.88 seconds to edge clear and prevail by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:09.85, earning a strong 96 Beyer. Surely a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier is in Gunmetal’s future?

I’m also adding runner-up Prime Power to my watch list. A first-time starter from the Hall of Fame barn of Steve Asmussen, Prime Power sold for $500,000 as a yearling and ran a big race on debut. He carved out the pace, led past the eighth pole and pulled 7 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. I expect this son of Medaglia d’Oro will graduate next time and then join the road to the Kentucky Derby.

Friday

Oaklawn Park, race 5: Although Booth was beaten to fourth place as the favorite in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn, I can’t judge his effort too harshly. He was bottled up behind and between rivals down the homestretch, lacking enough racing room to mount a challenge. I think he would have fared better with an unencumbered trip, so I’ll keep Booth on my watch list.

Saturday

Santa Anita, race 7: Momad failed to fire when returning from a 3 1/2-month layoff in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. Making his second career start, Momad lost ground at every call on his way to finishing fourth by 9 1/4 lengths. I’ll drop him from my watch list at least until he bounces back with a stronger showing.

Here’s my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.