Photo:

Max Sharp / Eclipse Sportswire

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Results

Saturday

Fair Grounds, race 7: Sharp maiden winner and watch list member Admiral Dennis ran way below my expectations when making his stakes debut in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner, finishing fourth by 16 1/2 lengths while favored at 4-5. A stumbling start didn’t help his chances, so I’m inclined to draw a line through this disappointing showing and give Admiral Dennis a chance to rebound next time.

Fair Grounds, race 9: Track Phantom didn’t improve the way I anticipated in his second start back from a layoff, fading after setting fractions of 23.84 and 47.59 seconds to finish fourth by 6 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Tenacious. I’ll drop him from my watch list.

Entries

Thursday

Santa Anita, race 8: The Grade 1, seven-furlong Malibu on opening day at Santa Anita has drawn a stellar field. Five graded-stakes winners, including a Kentucky Derby winner, a Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner and a Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up, are among the eight entrants.

The Kentucky Derby winner is Mystik Dan, a member of my watch list since dominating a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight in November 2023. Mystik Dan has competed exclusively in route races since, with his rail-skimming nose triumph in the 150th Kentucky Derby ranking as his greatest achievement.

But I believe Mystik Dan can challenge while cutting back in distance for the Malibu. After all, his maiden victory was sensational. He ran his fifth furlong in a blazing 11.35 seconds on his way to winning by 7 3/4 lengths. I think there’s a chance Mystik Dan will prove just as capable in sprints as routes.

But even if Mystik Dan runs a giant race in the Malibu, he isn’t guaranteed to win. Raging Torrent and Pilot Commander, two other watch list members, boast appealing credentials as well.

Raging Torrent faltered when breaking from the rail in the six-furlong Breeders’ Cup Sprint, weakening from fourth position to finish seventh. But he’d previously employed front-running tactics to win three straight seven-furlong sprints, most notably taking the Pat O’Brien (G2) by a neck over the multiple Grade 1-winning 6-year-old The Chosen Vron. Returning to the 3-year-old ranks and stretching back out over seven furlongs should allow Raging Torrent to rebound.

As for Pilot Commander, he placed second to multiple Grade 1 winner Muth in Santa Anita’s seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) last winter. Since returning from an eight-month layoff, he’s been in improving form. Last time out he trounced a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita by 2 3/4 lengths, a performance suggesting Pilot Commander has the talent to challenge for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Santa Anita, race 10: The seven-furlong La Brea (G1) for 3-year-old fillies also has come up deep, with six graded-stakes winners in the 11-horse field.

One of the most intriguing contenders is watch list member Tamara, who crushed the 2023 Del Mar Debutante (G1) sprinting seven furlongs by 6 3/4 lengths. She suffered an injury when finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and has only run once since, recently returning from a one-year layoff to finish second by a nose in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer dashing six furlongs at Del Mar.

Tamara has cranked out sharp workouts since her comeback, including a bullet five furlongs in 58.60 seconds at Santa Anita, so she’s eligible to move forward significantly in her second start back. If Tamara’s 8-1 morning-line odds hold up, you might want to bet on this beautifully bred daughter of Bolt d’Oro out of Beholder.

Two other watch list members are entered in the La Brea. Kinza won her first three starts in decisive fashion, including the Las Virgenes (G3) and Santa Ysabel (G3), but hasn’t raced since faltering to second place in the April 6 Santa Anita Oaks (G2). The good news is, Kinza has trained nicely for her comeback, most notably working half a mile in a swift 46.40 seconds at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the La Brea nine times, and Kinza ranks among the best of his four entrants this year.

Meanwhile, Michael McCarthy’s up-and-coming filly Accuracy enters in red-hot form, having won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight by 15 lengths before dominating a one-mile $40,000 allowance optional claimer by 7 1/4 lengths. Cutting back to seven furlongs is a question mark for the daughter of Arrogate, but on raw talent Accuracy must be respected.