In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

Entries

Saturday

Oaklawn, race 9: Two weeks after finishing third in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones on the road to the Kentucky Derby, Kale’s Angel is cutting back to six furlongs for the Renaissance.

The distance change should suit Kale’s Angel just fine. Two starts back, he romped by 5 3/4 lengths in a fast renewal of the 5 1/2-furlong Advent at Oaklawn, earning a flashy 97 Brisnet speed rating that tops the Renaissance field by five points.

The short rest shouldn’t be an issue either. The Smarty Jones unfolded with pedestrian fractions of 24.11, 49.03 and 1:15.64, so Kale’s Angel didn’t have to run all that hard. He’s the 3-5 morning-line favorite to add the Renaissance to his win tally, and I expect he’ll get the job done.

Fair Grounds, race 11: Skinner is back and better than ever. Beaten half a length when third in the 2023 Santa Anita Derby, Skinner picked up his first stakes victory when rallying to a determined one-length triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar two months ago.

Skinner has a strong chance to pick up a second stakes win in the 1 1/16-mile Louisiana (G3). The 10-horse field contains lots of pace on paper, and Skinner signaled his affinity for the Fair Grounds main track when breezing a bullet half-mile in 47.80 seconds on New Year’s Eve. Look for Skinner to be charging hard down the homestretch under Jose Ortiz, the runaway leading jockey at Fair Grounds this meet.

Fair Grounds, race 12: Three watch list members are entered to race in the Lecomte (G3), though one, Admiral Dennis, is slated to scratch per Marcus Hersh of Daily Racing Form.

This will leave Disco Time and Calling Card to represent my watch list, and both have a chance to factor.

Disco Time is a Juddmonte homebred conditioned by hot trainer Brad Cox, who has gone 10-for-33 (30 percent) at Fair Grounds this meet. Disco Time hasn’t been seriously challenged in two starts, winning a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 3 3/4 lengths before taking a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer over the same track by 3 1/2 lengths.

With Brisnet Speed ratings of 87 and 92 under his belt, Disco Time ranks among the fastest of the Lecomte entrants. Another top-tier contender based on his best Brisnet Speed rating is Calling Card.

Calling Card fared okay in his first two starts on turf, but ran out of his skin when switching to dirt for a one-mile New York-bred maiden special weight at Aqueduct, surging from nearly 10 lengths back to win by 17 1/4 lengths with a 93 Brisnet speed rating.

Calling Card failed to replicate that number when finishing third by seven lengths in a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last month, but a modest pace and quick finishing fractions didn’t give him the best chance for success. If Calling Card receives a quicker pace to work with in the Lecomte, he’s eligible to bounce back under internationally acclaimed jockey Frankie Dettori.

2025 Watch List Record

In 2025, horses on my watch list have recorded nine starts, two wins, three seconds and two thirds for a 22% win rate and a 78% in-the-money rate.