Results

Thursday

Horseshoe Indianapolis, race 7. Stakes-placed Royal Slipper is off my watch list after ending a nearly one-year layoff with a fourth-place finish in an off-the-turf allowance sprinting five furlongs.

Entries

Friday

Churchill Downs, race 1. In addition to the Breeders’ Cup Friday entries I outlined earlier this week, a couple of watch list members are racing at Churchill Downs on Friday. The first is Optical, last seen pulling up after a troubled trip in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. He previously had broken his maiden by 14 lengths racing one mile at Churchill and may rebound in a return to that configuration for a $50,000 starter allowance.

Churchill Downs, race 7. Muhimma was best by 7 1/2 lengths when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. The runner-up returned to win her next start, so it’s easy to see why Muhimma is favored at even-money to win her second start in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs.

Saturday

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Two of the three morning-line favorites in are watch-list members. Ways and Means is the top morning line choice after winning three in a row, including the Test (G1) and Gallant Bloom (G2).

But don’t underestimate Vahva. She was compromised by a slow rail when third in the Ballerina Handicap (G1) and had previously won the Derby City Distaff (G1) and Chicago (G3) in fine fashion.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Cogburn is shaping up as a heavy favorite in this one. His 3-for-3 record this year includes a 3 1/2-length romp in the Jaipur (G1), in which he completed 5 1/2 furlongs in the North American record time of 59.80 seconds.

Star of Mystery ran third in the Jaipur. The subsequent Quick Call (G3) winner exits a fast-finishing second in the Franklin (G2), her first start off a three-month break, and she is eligible to move forward in her second start back.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Thorpedo Anna has won four Grade 1 races this year and might have conquered males in the Travers (G1) if she hadn’t waited in traffic around the far turn. She’s the 4-5 morning-line favorite to beat her elders here, and if she succeeds, horse of the year honors may come her way.

Belmont at the Big A, race 10. In the midst of all the Breeders’ Cup action, runaway Belmont at the Big A maiden winner Stunner will seek her first stakes win in the one-mile Tempted. The Brad Cox-trained juvenile filly looks like a possible Road to the Kentucky Oaks contender in the making.

Breeders’ Cup Classic. Five watch list members will do battle in the Classic, including reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Fierceness, who got the better of Thorpedo Anna by a head in the Travers.

Forever Young, third by a head in this year’s Kentucky Derby, recently ended a five-month layoff with a victory in the Japan Dirt Classic. The talented sophomore is a win threat while returning to the U.S.

Highland Falls has made steady progress this year and exits a career-best four-length romp in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). One more step forward could put this 20-1 long shot in win contention. Arthur’s Ride is inconsistent but brilliant on his best day, as he demonstrated when wiring the Whitney (G1) with a 110 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. And marathon standout Next may have the talent to challenge even while cutting back in distance.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Stretch-running War Like Goddess rarely gets a favorable pace setup. Facing a full field, this might be her chance to chase an honest pace and secure her first Breeders’ Cup win in her fourth appearance.

Moira, third against a tough field in this race last year, also has struggled with tricky setups and might exceed expectations if things go her way on Saturday. But these two veteran mares will have to reckon with the talented 3-year-old Cinderella’s Dream (4-1), who has won the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Saratoga Oaks (G2) since arriving in North America.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Federal Judge benefited from a rail bias when wiring the Phoenix (G2). But he carved out a hot pace and won by 5 1/2 lengths, so the 4-year-old gelding may simply be getting good at the right time. He’s a threat to win again in the Sprint.

His challengers include fellow watch-list members Raging Torrent, who conquered multiple Grade 1 winner The Chosen Vron in the Pat O’Brien (G2) last time out, and Straight No Chaser, a powerful 6 1/4-length winner of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2).

Breeders’ Cup Mile. Carl Spackler is the top U.S. hope for the Breeders’ Cup Mile after using his early speed to win the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) and Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) in succession. But don’t overlook the chances of More Than Looks, runner-up in both those races. More Than Looks was beaten only a length in the Coolmore Turf Mile after gobbling up ground down the homestretch, and last year he finished sixth by only two lengths against a stellar Breeders’ Cup Mile field.

Fillies and mares often perform well in the Mile, so Chili Flag shouldn’t be underestimated either. She boasts three wins and a second from four start racing one mile this year, including a triumph in the Just a Game (G1) over next-out Diana (G1) winner Whitebeam.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Saudi Crown faded to finish 10th in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year’s Mile should be more to his liking. Last year’s speedy Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner has done some of his best work in short routes and nearly won the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) during the winter, finishing third by three-quarters of a length.

Muth is a logical challenger if he bounces back from his unexpected last-place finish in the California Crown (G1). The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up previously won three straight stakes, including the Arkansas Derby (G1) over future Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.

Sunday

Belmont at the Big A, race 6: Nic’s Style couldn’t keep up with Ways and Means in the Gallant Bloom, finishing second by four lengths. But the lightly raced 4-year-old filly is surely the one to beat while dropping in class for the seven-furlong Pumpkin Pie.

Belmont at the Big A, race 8. Tuscan Sky didn’t do much running when last seen in the Haskell (G1), racing more than a dozen lengths behind at every call. But he previously survived a speed duel to dominate Monmouth Park’s Pegasus by 6 3/4 lengths over future Grade 1 winner and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile favorite Domestic Product. Tuscan Sky is ending a layoff in the 1 1/8-mile Discovery and can challenge for victory if he brings his A game.

Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.