The mild upset in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita last Saturday dialed up the drama on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and presented California racing fans with a fun question to answer.

Which Santa Anita-based 3-year-old now has the best chance of winning the May 3 Derby?

Is it still Citizen Bull, the 2-year-old champion who looked even better at 3 in winning his 2025 debut in last month’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes? Is it Journalism, whose 1¾-length victory over odds-on favorite Barnes in the San Felipe set speed-figure-makers’ calculators ablaze? Or are there cases for others here and across the country?

One thing is for sure: Plenty has changed since the start of the Derby prep campaign in January, when this column listed 20 horses to watch based mostly on last year’s form, pedigree and connections. No. 1 on that list, East Avenue, flopped in his first start at 3 and looks like a Derby longshot, one of a few contenders who’ve slid down most people’s rankings. Others have risen, such as Sovereignty, the best in Florida; Coal Battle, the leader in Arkansas, and Flood Zone and Captain Cook, winners in New York.

About halfway through the Triple Crown prep season, as the calendar turns to steppingstone races with “Derby” in their names – like the April 5 Santa Anita Derby – here’s a new list of ones to watch.

The leaders

Journalism: His clocking of 1:42.24 for 1 1/16 miles earned a chart-topping 108 Beyer speed figure, about five lengths faster than Citizen Bull’s Lewis Stakes time of 1:36.71 for 1 mile. After racing just off the lead and finishing well in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the San Felipe, the son of Curlin looks primed for 1⅛ miles in the Santa Anita Derby and 1¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby. No Derby hopeful leaves fewer boxes unchecked.

Citizen Bull: The best of trainer Bob Baffert’s bunch remains No. 1, with Journalism No. 2, in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s weekly 3-year-old rankings (which aren’t necessarily the same as Derby prospect rankings). Unbeaten in three stakes around two turns, and underestimated before, he’ll have every chance to prove himself against Journalism if they meet in the Santa Anita Derby. His one-dimensional, front-running style is a worry and a weapon.

Sovereignty: The Bill Mott-trained colt’s neck victory over over River Thames in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday came in signature style, a rally from last in a six-horse field. Just as it would be nice to know Citizen Bull doesn’t need the lead, it would be nice to know Sovereignty doesn’t have to tempt fate by dropping so far back. He has proven he runs well on the Derby track at Churchill Downs.

Barnes: Baffert’s $3.2 million yearling lost for the first time in the San Felipe, but it wasn’t a big step back. In finishing second, he received a 105 Beyer figure, making him faster than any horse on this list except Journalism. Barnes will have something to prove in his 1⅛-mile prep. He’ll also need at least third-place points to qualify for the Derby.

Coal Battle: Interesting. The 11-1 upsetter in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn has won four races is a row but is an off-brand horse who still must show elite talent. His best quality is adaptability, having won on the lead and from behind, at four different tracks and on footing rated sloppy and muddy as well as fast. He’ll handle whatever the Derby throws at him.

The second tier

Captain Cook: He has already won at 1⅛ miles in the Withers at Aqueduct.

Flood Zone: Won the Gotham at Aqueduct at 17-1, though that’s only a one-turn mile.

Sandman: Had things against him in two defeats at Oaklawn.

Chancer McPatrick: Double Grade I winner starts 2025 late in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby.

River Thames: Trainer Todd Pletcher’s best hope was caught at the finish by Sovereignty.

One more chance

East Avenue: After two disappointments, it’s make or break whenever he runs next.

Patch Adams: He’s 2-1, behind 8-5 Chancer McPatrick, on the Tampa Bay Derby morning line.

Burnham Square: Raced wide, finished fourth as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth.

Sand Devil: New York-bred tasted his first defeat as the Gotham favorite.

Rodriguez: Third in the San Felipe. Was a huge maiden win this Baffert colt’s best, or have we not seen it yet?

Don’t forget

Madaket Road: The Baffert-trained gray improved to run second in the Rebel.

Gaming: More Baffert. Starred at Del Mar at 2, faced self-created trouble at 3.

Baeza: Santa Anita Derby will be the first stakes try for John Shirreffs’ $1.2 million yearling.

Built: Seasoned, and leading candidate for the March 22 Louisiana Derby.

Tappan Street: Upset by Burnham Square. One of five sons of Into Mischief on this list.

Kentucky Derby odds at Caesar’s Palace this week had Citizen Bull on top at 15-2, followed closely by Journalism (9-1), Sovereignty (11-1) and Barnes (15-1), joined by the Baffert-trained maiden winner Cornucopian (15-1). Then came Coal Battle (16-1) and Sandman (17-1), with everyone else 20-1 or more.

Churchill Downs’ next round of official Derby future wagering is set for March 14-16.

There’s plenty of time left to back our opinions, and to change them.

Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.