An all-unseeded semifinal lineup at the Bank of China Open will conclude with Jerry Shang facing Kei Nishikori on Saturday afternoon.

This will be the third meeting already between the 19-year-old Shang and the 35-year-old Nishikori after splitting their first two encounters. Nishikori prevailed 6-4, 7-6(3) at the 2023 Atlanta tournament before Shang got the job done 6-4, 6-4 this past fall in Chengdu.

Whereas Nishikori is presumably in the latter stages of his career, Shang is firmly on the rise. The Chinese left-hander has climbed to No. 50 in the world, having already earned 32 main-tour match victories as a teenager. So far in Hong Kong he has ousted Coleman Wong, Pedro Martinez, and Fabian Marozsan to book a semifinal spot for the second consecutive year.

Armed with a rare clean bill of health, Nishikori is just barely outside the top 100 (106th) and is projected to surge well inside it (likely No. 83 even if he loses on Saturday). The Japanese veteran has kicked off his 2025 campaign with victories over Denis Shapovalov, Karen Khachanov, and Cameron Norrie–dropping sets to both Khachanov and Norrie along the way.

Neither one of these guys is a bastion of physical excellence at the two extreme ends of their respective careers, but Shang is the more reliable of the two from that standpoint. Asking Nishikori to deliver a fourth consecutive stellar performance may be too much.

Pick: Shang in 3