Lots of attention was rightfully paid to Good Cheer’s win in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at 1-10 odds, but to paraphrase a sports cliche: trainer Brad Cox does not rebuild; he reloads.
Next up for the potent Cox barn that already has two Kentucky Oaks wins to its credit, with Monomoy Girl in 2018 and Shedaresthedevil in 2020, is Muhimma in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. Given the field of 13, fair odds of 7-5 on the Demoiselle Stakes winner is some serious confidence, and I probably would have lined her at even money had she not drawn the rail.
The rail is really bad in 1 1/16-mile races @oaklawnracing with at least 12 runners the past 10 years–153-10-15-15 (6.5% win, 26.1% ItM) w/ a -33% @HR_Nation Impact & a -54% ROI. In races with at least 13 starters, posts 1-2 are 13-0-5-1. Coal Battle drew the Rebel rail.
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) February 18, 2025
The good news for her backers, though, is that she has tactical speed going a route. Unless her break is Sandman-in-the-Southwest-Stakes disastrous, Muhimma should be okay under jockey Florent Geroux. A win here would have her vying for Kentucky Oaks favoritism in the future wager pool that Churchill Downs offers March 14-16, the weekend of the Virginia Oaks and Virginia Derby.
The primary danger is Five G, who drew the outside post of 13. This is not as much a hindrance as the rail, but still a small concern just because of her forward run style. She does have a win at this distance but that came on turf against New York-breds. The one-mile win last out was around one turn, so there are some questions here. Even though Muhimma will be a much shorter price, I’d be more excited to get 7-5 on her than 5-1 on Five G.
Morning line wise, Quickick at 12-1 matches my fair odds, but it is hard to see us getting that. Still, I’ll keep an optimistic open mind. She chased eventual champion Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Immersive, who is sidelined from the Oaks trail, in two starts last year. She is in the mix here with any improvement.
Like Quickick, Anonima scratched out of the Rachel Alexandra (G2) last week to target this spot. Depending on what happens from the rail, Anonima could end up more forwardly placed than expected. There are a lot of contingencies there, but she is worth trying to slide into the exotics if she is completely overlooked in the wagering.
Photo: Jason Moran / Eclipse Sportswire Jockey Mychel Sanchez will serve a seven-day suspension and pay an additional $1,750 in fines
Photo: Gulfstream Park / Lauren King Sovereignty, dramatic late-running winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) March 1, is being pointed
Photo: Santa Anita / Benoit Photo Cavalieri and Alpha Bella, who finished one-two in the Grade 3 La Cañada in January at Santa Anita,
Photo: Gonzalo Anteliz Jr. / Eclipse Sportswire The stars will shine Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, and not just in the Grade 3 Tampa Ba