Mumbai: When India had kicked off their World Test Championship (WTC) campaign in the middle of 2023, Yashasvi Jaiswal was on debut, Ajinkya Rahane was still making the playing eleven and Rahul Dravid was the head coach. So long-drawn is the WTC that some teams have undergone sweeping upheavals towards the backend.

India’s final hopes have dashed with the loss in last week’s Sydney Test match. Jaiswal is the next big thing, Rahane’s comeback hopes have dimmed, the in-your-face Gautam Gambhir has replaced Dravid as coach, Jasprit Bumrah returned from injury, dazzled and has gone back to the rehab table.

What remains unchanged despite this churn is the breeziest formula to win the ticket to the finals – win handsomely at home. The points system is fashioned for a team to deliver clean sweeps at home and make the finals. Twelve points are awarded for a win and only four for a draw with the much-documented percentage system used to limit the imbalance from the unequal distribution of Tests.

When New Zealand made the finals of the inaugural (2019-21) edition, they did it with a 100 % home record. They went on to lift the mace. A blip or two is fine, something both this year’s finalists South Africa and Australia have faced. But with 83.3 % and 70 % wins at home respectively, their road to finals was still formalized by maximising home advantage.

The only time a team made the final with a less flattering home record was India in 2021-23– 62.5 % wins– but that’s because they were able to offset the record with five away wins, two of them in England and one in South Africa. Virat Kohli made the ‘make them smell hell for 60 overs’ speech in the Lord’s Test of 2021 and the bowlers responded. In the Centurion Test win of 2021, India were so good, they won despite a day’s play lost. But those wins are more difficult to achieve and therefore less common. India’s batting capitulation, as seen in the final session against Australia recently at Melbourne, dramatic as it was, is how the last day’s action often unfolds.

HOME RUN

Which is why India would pinpoint to their 0-3 home clean sweep suffered against New Zealand as the primary reason behind losing out on a finals berth for the first time. It’s a no brainer that to be title-aspirants in a WTC cycle, one must be a dominant at home. With pitches being tailor-made by hosts unabashedly, it’s become easier to strategise for home action. Penalties on extreme pitches have been relaxed as well. The Wankhede turner that had hosted the India-New Zealand Test and the uneven and seamer-friendly Sydney pitch that hosted the New Year’s Test were deemed satisfactory. Visting teams at the receiving end have become more tolerant too. Gambhir even went as far as calling the Sydney pitch ‘important for the future of Test cricket’.

In that light, New Zealand’s success in India was nothing short of a heist. India’s batting frailties against spin were laid bare. Reflecting on those losses, the tactical and technical shortcomings would provide India cues on preparing for the next cycle. On the tactical front, there is already an admission among the decision makers in private that going with slow turners in future would increase the gulf in class between the Indian and visiting spinners and be the smarter ploy. India’s batting stars refusing to take the domestic route to prepare for a home Test season is another learning.

TOO LATE FOR ROHIT-KOHLI?

There’s plenty of talk for Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli to play one round of the Ranji season that resumes on January 23. As a generic remark, Gambhir said after Sydney that he wants every player to play domestic cricket ‘if they have the commitment to play red-ball cricket’. Former coach Ravi Shastri too wants Kohli to play domestic cricket to prepare against spin.

Good in theory, but playing red-ball cricket five months away from a long series in England that will kick off the next cycle may not achieve the purpose. Particularly, with the white-ball season ahead. Both the senior batters missed a trick by not playing last year’s Duleep trophy that preceded the five-match home stretch. The remainder of the Ranji season may still see a breakthrough performance that catches the selector’s eye.

India’s home matches in the next cycle are relatively easier to strategise. They have a couple of two-match series against South Africa and West Indies in October-November. Identifying a captain for the long run, taking a call on Kohli’s future, unearthing batters with proficiency against spin, finding a replacement to fill the big shoes of R Ashwin would determine if Indian cricket can bounce back from their current lows.