Here are Kansas basketball’s best- and worst-case scenarios for its 2024-25 season

Posted by Admin November 2, 2024 Basketball

LAWRENCE — Kansas basketball has enjoyed numerous instances of success during head coach Bill Self’s tenure with the program, which began a little more than two decades ago.

Although last season didn’t reach the heights many expected, the Jayhawks aren’t far removed from their last Big 12 Conference regular season title, which they won during the 2022-23 season. They aren’t far removed from their last Big 12 tournament title, which they won in 2022. They aren’t far removed from their last national championship, which they also won in 2022.

So, considering the players Self’s staff brought back from last season’s squad, what could the 2024-25 season look like? Considering the talent Kansas added through the transfer portal, and from the high school ranks, will it be back at the top of the Big 12? Expectations are high for the preseason No. 1 team in the nation.

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Here are the hypothetical best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Jayhawks, with their regular season opener Monday at home against Howard:

Best-case scenario

The month of November includes a few tests, as Kansas’ non-conference slate sees it play North Carolina at home, Michigan State in Atlanta and Duke in Las Vegas. The Jayhawks are able to protect home court against North Carolina and other opponents who travel to Allen Fieldhouse, and although they come up short against Duke they are able to top Michigan State and head into December at 6-1. Kansas then sweeps through its remaining non-conference matchups, including road victories at Creighton and Missouri to enter Big 12 play at 10-1.

The Jayhawks tip off their league slate on Dec. 31 at home against West Virginia, and show just to what extent they’ll be a force in the conference. January includes some tough road matchups, and Kansas comes up short at both Iowa State and TCU, but it’s still a quality month. The Jayhawks pick up wins like at Cincinnati, and at home against Houston, to reach 17-3 (7-2 in Big 12).

February also sees a couple of road losses, at Baylor and BYU, but Kansas still wins at Kansas State as the Jayhawks sweep their in-state rival. Texas Tech opens March as the only team to beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse all year, but the Jayhawks then put last season’s tough defeat at Houston in the past by beating Houston on the road. They then win at home against Arizona in the regular season finale to reach 25-6 (15-5) — likely good enough for a Big 12 regular season title.

Kansas then goes to the Big 12 tournament and wins another championship. It then goes to the NCAA tournament, and makes a run to the Final Four. Self and company win another national title there.

Worst-case scenario

Kansas doesn’t suffer any upset defeats at home in the month of November, and still tops North Carolina, but can’t meet the challenges against Michigan State or Duke. In fact, it’s clear all the new pieces the Jayhawks added are going to need much more time to find the right chemistry with their teammates. In December they reclaim some momentum, and head into Big 12 play at 9-2.

Big 12 play starts off well, as Kansas moves through the end of December and into January, but soon has its hurdles the Jayhawks don’t clear. Losses at Cincinnati and Iowa State sting, and Houston is able to beat Kansas inside Allen Fieldhouse. A win against Kansas State at home is a bright spot for a team that is in a battle most nights in this league, and the Jayhawks head into February at 15-5 (6-3 in Big 12).

The month of February starts off poorly, with losses at Baylor, at home against Iowa State and then at Kansas State. It doesn’t look like Kansas will win another Big 12 regular season title. Even though the Jayhawks go on a run, they lose a couple games in March at Houston and at home against Arizona to finish the regular season at 21-10 (12-8).

Kansas goes on to have some success in the Big 12 tournament, but falls short in the title game. The Jayhawks are still able to have a pretty good seed in the NCAA tournament because of it. However, for the third-straight year, they’re eliminated in the round of 32.

Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He is the National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas for 2022. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.