Laurie

Ashley

1. Tux (3-1)

Normally conservative trainer Bill Mott sends Tux
directly to Remsen after the pretty gray colt won at first asking last month.
Tux broke quickly but was hard held while Junior Alvarado rated him off the
pacesetter’s flank. Tux took over in mid-stretch, opening up by 3 1/2 lengths
and getting 6 1/2-furlongs in 1:17.39. The performance was good enough to earn
an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating. Tapit’s son is out of Grade 3-winning sprinter Fancy
Dress Party. There is minor black type in the second and third generations.
Tux’s fourth dam is multiple-graded winning sprinter/miler Meafara. Asking Tux to tackle winners in his second start and
first route is a lot to ask. He was professional in his debut, and Tux’s
pedigree says he’ll enjoy the distance, so I’ll use him in the exotics.

Trained by Bill Mott, Tux debuted a winner in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event at Aqueduct on Nov. 9. Because the recency
of that race, only one of the other four entrants have made a subsequent
start, and that colt finished fifth next out. Tux received an 82 Equibase
speed figure for his debut. The Remsen (G2) will be just the second start for
this colt and his first at a two-turn route. Mott has been winning at a 15%
clip with a 41% in-the-money rate with runners stretching out from a sprint
to a route. Mott also isn’t one to rush his juveniles, so the fact that Tux
is entered here in his second start speaks volumes about Mott’s opinion of
this pretty gray. Junior Alvarado retains the mount. Contender.

2. Aviator Gui
(6-1)

Aviator Gui returns to dirt after a mediocre turf
performance. The Chad Brown trainee had zero early speed in a one-mile maiden
event in his second start. Once Aviator Gui caught up, Manny Franco had to
tap the breaks slightly between horses. They circled the field, and Franco
hand-rode the colt under the wire while Aviator Gui put his ears up once past
the competition. The fractions were slow, and Aviator Gui completed the mile
in 1:38.23 and crawled his last furlong in 13.96 seconds. The pretty gray colt earned
a career-best 80 speed rating. Uncle Mo’s son is out of Gun Runner’s half-sister, the
unraced Tapit mare Paulistinha. Aviator Gui has beautiful leg extension and
stretches his body out while running. Exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Aviator Gui is 3: 1-0-1. The colt
was third on debut in a seven-furlong maiden event at Saratoga.
Sandman, the winner of that race, was third in the Street Sense (G3) two
starts later. Aviator Gui came back to win at second asking in a one-mile,
off-the-turf maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. Three of his four
rivals from that race were next-out winners. Brown then ran the colt in the 1 1/16-mile Awad Stakes on the turf; Aviator Gui finished fourth
amid a group that left a lot to be desired. Brown is 14% with a 54% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners. Manny Franco retains the mount. Pass.

3. Poster (5-1)

Undefeated on turf, Poster takes his first spin on the
dirt. His class is questionable since from a combined 13 returning rivals, only
two won their next start. Munnings’s son is out of Tapit’s daughter Pin Up, who was
unplaced on fast dirt but won on a sloppy track and placed on turf. Her
half-brother is Bernardini. Although Poster’s pedigree indicates he should
handle the dirt, only one of three half-siblings won once in a dozen starts
on dirt at the claiming level. According to Race Lens, Munnings has seven winners from 82 starts
on dirt at 1 1/8 miles, but Poster’s distaff line lends stamina. The well-bred Eoin Harty trainee is shipping, stepping up
in class, stretching out and trying a new surface. Typically, horses can
handle multiple surfaces. However, dirt in the face stops most in their first
dirt start. I’ll pass.

Trained by Eoin Harty, Poster is perfect in two starts,
both on the turf. The colt took a one-mile maiden race gate to wire
in his debut and followed that with a three-length victory in a one-mile,
high-level allowance race. Poster’s debut race produced one next-out winner
and two more eventual winners. His second race contained a stakes-placed
runner and a next-out stakes winner. Harty is 9% with a 55% in-the-money clip
with turf to dirt runners. Harty doesn’t tend to swing for the fences with
his juveniles; in the last five years, he has sent out only six 2-year-olds
to eight graded starts with a 13% win rate and 50% in-the-money clip. Flavien
Prat takes over from Rafael Bejarano. Exotics.

4. Studlydoright
(9-2)

Studlydoright lost all hope at the start of the Hopeful
(G1) when he hit the gate, bumped, then had to steady and finished 13 lengths
behind Chance McPatrick. Otherwise, the John Robb trainee has consistently
won or placed in five starts and is the only graded-placed runner in the
Remsen. By Nyquist, Studlydoright
is the first competitor and stakes winner out of the stakes winner and Grade
3-placed turf router, Peach of a Gal. She’s a half to veteran handicap horse,
Concealed Identity, and Peach of a Gal’s half-sister bore multiple graded
winning turf miler, Ruby Nell. Typically a closer, Studlydoright showed a new dimension
as a pace-presser in the Nashua stakes. He’s bred for classic distances, and
if he can stay out of trouble, we’re looking at a win contender.

Trained by John Robb, Studlydoright has had only one bad
race in his already busy career. The two-time stakes winner ran into a good
bit of trouble in the Hopeful (G1) and ended up seventh, 13 1/4 lengths
behind winner Chancer McPatrick. It was the only time in his six-race career
that he finished outside of the exacta. He counts wins in the 5 1/2-furlong Tremont Stakes and the one-mile Nashua Stakes along with
runner-up finishes in the six-furlong Sanford (G3) and one-mile Laurel Futurity to his name. Studlydoright is Robb’s only 2-year-old graded
starter in the last five years, giving him a 0% win rate with a 50% in-the-money clip with that angle. Overall, Robb is 0% with a 40% in-the-money rate
in graded stakes in that same time frame. This colt already has a win over
the Aqueduct track and posted a career and field best 95 Equibase speed
figure when winning the Nashua Stakes last month. Regular rider Xavier Perez
retains the mount. Contender.

5. Keewaydin (6-5)

Keewaydin easily dispatched four rivals in his second
start, completing seven furlongs in 1:22 and traveling his final furlong in a
sparkling 12.10 under a confident hand ride by Dylan Davis. The Chad Brown
trainee earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating with a 92 late-pace figure, the
highest in the Remsen field. By no. 9 First Crop sire Instagrand out of a daughter of
Officer, Keewaydin is half to two multiple stakes placed sprinters. Instagrand
finished third in all three starts at a mile to 1 1/8 miles and his son Keewaydin
has a sprinter/miler oriented pedigree. Unless Dylan Davis can put them to
sleep on the front end, I see Keewaydin backing up in the stretch. Exotics.
 

Also from the Chad Brown barn, Keewaydin is 2: 1-0-1
lifetime so far. Keewaydin was third on debut, missing the win in the six-furlong maiden event at Saratoga by a head in a blanket finish. Winner
Tip Top Thomas finished second in the Champagne (G1) next out, fourth-place
finisher Sovereignty broke his maiden in the Street Sense (G3) two starts
later and another was a next-out winner. Keewaydin got the win in his second
start, a seven-furlong event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. None from
that race have made subsequent starts and-or won. This will be the colt’s
first attempt at two turns, and he will be stretching out two furlongs. Brown
is 22% with a 62% in-the-money rate with sprint to route runners. Dylan
Davis, who was aboard in the colt’s last race, gets the return call. Contender.

6. Surfside Moon
(20-1)

Surfside Moon is figuring out who he wants to be when he
grows up. James Lawrence switched him to the Delaware lawn after two mediocre
dirt races and was rewarded with a 1 1/4-length victory. Surfside Moon had an
excuse switching back to dirt for the Laurel Futurity. While on the
rail, he had to steady behind a tiring rival and was stuck in a traffic jam
around the far turn. Once in the clear, Surfside Moon kept going, but he
drifted in response to the crop and checked in fifth, five lengths behind Studlydoright. Switching back to the green for the Awad
Stakes at Aqueduct, Surfside Moon had no apparent excuse except perhaps not
liking the rail position and finished a disinterested sixth, bested 5 1/4 lengths. Malibu Moon’s son is the first foal out of Scat Daddy’s
daughter Crescent Lady, who is half to multiple stakes-winning miler Make
Mischief. Crescent Lady’s full sister bore Jody’s Pride, second in last year’s
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Surfside Moon should handle the extra distance, and if he
stays on the outside out of trouble, perhaps he could close for a minor
check. Exotics.

Trained by James Lawrence II, Surfside Moon is 5: 1-0-1
with his sole win coming in his third start in a one-mile maiden
event on the turf at Delaware. He followed that win with a fifth in the
Laurel Futurity, behind runner-up Studlydoright, and a sixth in the Awad on
turf, behind fourth-place finisher Aviator Gui. Although Surfside Moon does not
have a win over dirt, he did finish a very close third, beaten by just 3/4
lengths, in the mud in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Delaware. According to Race
Lens, Lawrence is 10% wins with a 30% in-the-money rate in graded stakes
over the last five years. Of his 10 graded starts during that time frame,
only one was on dirt. His charge finished a very distant last of seven.
Kendrick Carmouche, who was aboard for the colt’s last two starts, retains
the mount. Pass.

7. Gun Trader
(30-1)

Gun Trader discovered the Parx winner’s circle in his
sixth start, completing 1 mile and 70 yards in a leisurely 1:48.53. His gait
is painful to watch. He has very high, choppy knee action and may paddle with
his right foreleg. By First-Crop sire Tom’s d’Etat, Gun Trader is out of a Galileo
half-sister to Bodemeister, plus multiple Grade 1 placed Fascinating and
Grade 2 winner Under the Stars. Gun Trader’s pedigree has strong turf influences,
including Galileo and Tom’s d’Etat’s damsire Giant’s Causeway. Additionally,
Gun Trader’s half-brother won and was placed on Turf and Tapeta but was unplaced
on dirt. Their dam is a winning turf miler. Gun Trader could be a different
horse on the turf. Pass.

Trained by Uriah St. Lewis, Gun Trader has raced
exclusively at Parx and Delaware and is a last-out maiden winner, finally
having found the winner’s circle in his sixth start. Gun Trader finished
fifth in his debut behind third-place finisher Surfside Moon. In his first
five starts, Gun Trader pressed the pace, but St. Lewis tried a new tactic
with the colt last out and had jockey Francisco Martinez put Gun Trader on
the lead. That resulted in a victory, but it did not improve his Equibase
speed figures at all. He earned a career second-best 67 for that effort over
the Parx track. St. Lewis is 5% wins with a 17% in-the-money clip in graded
races over the past five years, per Race Lens. Martinez, who has been
aboard only one graded starter in the last year, finishing fifth of nine, retains
the mount. Pass.