LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. He’s Not Joking (8-1)

He’s Not Joking easily handled his rivals in Canada’s Grey Stakes (G3), circling the field and drawing off by four lengths. The Josie Carroll trainee completed 1 1/6 miles in 1:43.18 over Woodbine’s Tapeta track. He earned a career-best 96 Brisnet rating, a 10-point jump from his previous best. Practical Joke’s son is out of a stakes-winning sprinter. The significant black type in his distaff line is anchored by fourth dam, Grade 1 heroine Glitter Woman, dam of Grade 1 winner Political Force. He’s Not Joking must prove himself on dirt. However, his dam and sire are dirt horses, and he handled Tapeta kickback. Additionally, some Gray Stakes rivals previously raced in the U.S. and were unplaced, so he receives a class test. He’s Not Joking has tactical speed and won’t prank us about his chances as a win contender.

Trained by Josie Carroll, He’s Not Joking has raced exclusively on Woodbine’s all-weather surface, compiling a 4: 2-1-1 record, including winning the Grey Stakes (G3) last out when stretching out to a route for the first time. The colt beat three stakes winners and a stakes-placed runner in the Grey Stakes (G3), including turning the tables on Thundering, who beat him in the seven-furlong Display Stakes. Race Lens tells us that Carroll does not ship to Churchill Downs often, having done so only four times in the last five years. But she means business when she does, compiling a 4: 1-1-1 record under the twin spires during that timeframe. Florent Geroux takes over for Kazushi Kimura, who will ride Del Mar this weekend. Normally I would pass on an unproven all weather to dirt runner, but considering Carroll’s record with shipping to Churchill Downs, I’m going to give this fella a shot. Contender.

2. Jonathan’s Way  (5-2)

Jonathan’s Way was unsettled and hard to handle early in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Expending the energy cost him, and Joel Rosario was scrubbing to no avail around the far turn while Jonahan’s Way was going the wrong way. Jonathan’s Way is the most accomplished runner from the second-leading First Crop sire Vekoma. He’s out of the stakes-winning sprinter Female Drama. Jonathan’s Way’s half-brother Startdfromdabottom is a multiple restricted stakes-placed sprinter. The black type in the second generation of this family is mainly South American. But 2021 Kentucky Derby hero Monarchos is a distant relative. Despite his tepid showing in the Breeders’ Cup, Jonathan’s Way earned a 99 Brisnet rating, and his speed figures have improved with every start. Trainer Philip Bauer gave the colt a five-furlong 58.80 bullet move for his primary breeze for the Kentucky Jockey Club. That, along with a drop in company, makes Jonathan’s Way a win contender.

Trained by Philip Bauer, Jonathan’s Way suffered his first defeat when finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This colt didn’t beat much in his debut, with just the eighth-place finisher coming back to become a winner. But in the Iroquois (G3), he best two who won high-level optional claimers in their next starts. He also received a field- and career-best 100 Equibase speed figure for the effort. I like this colt off the drop in class and return to Churchill Downs, host of the Iroquois (G3). Regular rider Joel Rosario retains the mount. Rosario and Bauer have teamed up nine times in the last year to win at a 44% rate, according to Race Lens. Contender.

3. Tiztastic (5-1)

Tiztastic is undefeated on turf and placed on dirt. Steve Asmussen took a shot at the Street Sense (G3) and was rewarded with a best-of-the-rest second-place finish, five lengths behind the winner. Tiztastic ate dirt but passed tired horses in a workmanlike fashion. He’s a big horse and is still learning. By third-leading First Crop sire Tiz the Law, Tiztastic is out of an unraced Tapit mare. Tapit is also Tiz the Law’s grandsire. Tiztastic’s half-sister Interpolate is a stakes-winning sprinter, while his third dam is multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter Strategic Maneuver. Tiztastic’s speed ratings and late-pace figures reveal a one-paced grinder. Pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Tiztastic has two victories on turf, including a neck decision in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. Tiztastic debuted on dirt at Saratoga, finishing fifth in a six and one-half furlong event that was won by Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) hero Chancer McPatrick. Pilgrim (G2) runner-up Noble Confessor also exited that race. Asmussen tried Tiztastic on the dirt again last out in the Street Sense (G3) here at Churchill Downs, resulting in a second place finish, five lengths behind the winner. Sovereignty, the Street Sense (G3) winner, broke his maiden in that race. Cristian Torres, who was aboard in the Street Sense (G3), has the return call. Pass.

4. Dapper Moon (8-1)

In his second start, Dapper Moon outclassed an iffy herd of maidens at Saratoga by five lengths. Since then, he’s been 16 lengths shy of the winner’s circle in a pair of graded stakes. Malibu Moon’s son is out of an Old Fashioned mare. There’s plenty of blacktype in the second and third generations of Dapper Moon’s distaff line, including Alcibiades (G1) heroine My Conquestadory and the brilliant multiple-graded winning sprinter Kelly Kip, who set three new track records during his 31-race career. This Dallas Stewart trainee’s speed ratings are low, and I predict another speed-fade trip. Pass.

Trained by Dallas Stewart, Dapper Moon has just one win in four starts. The colt was second on debut after being fractious and getting off to a slow start. That race produced the third place finishers of the Hopeful (G1) and Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Dapper Moon won his second start, a seven-furlong, $120,000 event at Saratoga, by five lengths, and the runner-up came back to win his next start. The colt then ran fourth in both the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and the Street Sense (G3), finishing behind Filoso and Tiztastic. In both graded races, each carded at the Kentucky Jockey Club distance of 1 1/16 miles, Dapper Moon was up on the pace before yielding in the far turn and into the stretch. Regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr. retains the mount. Pass.

5. Filoso (8-1)

Filoso closed for a distant third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) behind the spectacular East Avenue and Ferocious. The Chad Summers trainee beat Dapper Moon by a length for third, so the performance wasn’t as eye-catching as the pair who beat him. City of Light’s son is out of Kenda, a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Her half-sister bore Grade 1-winning sprinter-miler Domestic Product. Filoso is another one-paced type with mediocre speed ratings who needs to improve. Pass.

Trained by Chad Summers, Filoso debuted in the same six-furlong maiden event at Saratoga as Dapper Moon, finishing fourth to that rival’s second. He won at second asking when stretching out to a mile, and that race produced a graded-stakes and a stakes-placed runner. Filoso then came from far back to nab third in the Breeders’ Futurity, but he was still 9 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Summers is 7% with a 20% in-the-money-rate in graded stakes over the last five years, as shown by Race Lens. John Velazquez has the return call from the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Pass.

6. Clock Tower (10-1)

Capable on dirt and turf, Clock Tower fought through the stretch of the Bourbon (G3) yet was passed in the final strides. No shame in finishing third, only bested by two lengths. Two next-out winning rivals finished behind him, including Giocoso, who also placed third in the Iroquois (G3) prior. By Not This Time, Clock Tower is out of Grade 3 heroine Hot Stones, a stakes winner from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. His sire is by Giant’s Causeway, and Clock Tower’s second grandsire is that one’s full brother, Freud, so he may eventually find his way back to the lawn. Wesley Ward keeps Clock Tower ticking on steady five-furlong breezes in the 1:00 to 1:03 range. His speed ratings are low and Clock Tower may vie with other pacesetters. Pass.

Trained by Wesley Ward, Clock Tower is cross-entered in Sunday’s Cecil B. DeMille (G3) at Del Mar. A close third last out in the Bourbon (G2), Clock Tower began his career on dirt. He did not perform poorly, finishing third on debut and second in his next start, but he found his calling card when switched to turf. Rather than his speed fading, Clock Tower was able to carry it all the way to a romping victory at a mile at Kentucky Downs. He did get caught inside the final sixteenth last out at Keeneland, but it was his best race, Equibase speed figures wise. Ward is 29% with a 50% in-the-money rate with runners switching from turf to dirt, but there are others in this field I like better. Should Clock Tower stay on the East Coast, Gerardo Corrales will have the return call. Pass.

7. Sonic Skidaddle (6-1)

Sonic Skidaddle was wiped out at the start of his last race. He hopped, kissed the dirt, and then had the stuffing knocked out of him when he slammed between rivals in his first four steps. This left him about ten lengths behind the field. The mishap played to his favor, as the leaders blitzed through a 22.81 first quarter and 45.76 half-mile. Sonic Skidaddle rolled past his staggering rivals to win by 4 3/4 lengths, finishing seven furlongs in 1:24.20 with a 12.68 final furlong. The Brendan Walsh trainee earned an 86 Brisnet rating, and his 99 late-pace figure is the second highest in the field. By the third-ranked Third Crop sire City of Light, Sonic Skidaddle is out of a Tapit mare. His half-sister Quality Chic is multiple stakes placed from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. Grade 1-winning sprinter Bordonaro is a member of the family. Sonic Skidaddle had gate issues in both starts, and he was aided by a fast pace in his last start. I expect he’ll encounter a decent pace in the KY Jockey Club, and he has more speed than some of the other one-paced types, so I see a win contender.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Sonic Skidaddle has made both career starts at Churchill Downs. He was seventh on debut before rallying from last to win by 4 3/4 lengths at second asking. If the Calumet homebred wants to move forward, he’s going to have to get past his gate issues. Although, since he has proven to be a closer, getting out of the gate poorly isn’t as detrimental as if he were a front runner. Walsh is 9% with a 35% in-the-money rate in graded stakes on dirt over the last year and 14% with a 40% in-the-money rate with sprint to route runners. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Luan Machado. Exotics.

8. First Resort  (9-2)

After a runner-up finish in the Saratoga Special (G1), First Resort was scratched from the Iroquois in favor of the Summer (G1) over Woodbine’s turf to place an average fourth, bested 3 1/2 lengths. A Godolphin homebred by Uncle Mo, First Resort is the first foal out of Grade 1 winning sprinter Fair Maiden. His fourth dam is Kentucky Oaks heroine Secret Status. This road warrior has competed at three separate tracks with three different jockeys. His speed ratings are in the high 80s, and if he doesn’t get into a speed duel, First Resort could earn an exotics check.

Trained by Eoin Harty, First Resort returns to the dirt after trying turf last out in the Summer Stakes (G1). A Godolphin homebred, First Resort debuted in the mud at Ellis Park, taking a 5 1/2-mile maiden event gate to wire. He tried the same tactics in the Saratoga Special (G2) but was caught in the stretch and finished second. The speedster got bumped at the break in the Summer Stakes and taken out of his usual running style but still managed to run fourth. Harty is 0% with a 50% in-the-money rate with turf to dirt runners. Luis Saez will be the colt’s fourth different jockey in as many starts at as many tracks. Exotics.

9. Render Judgment (12-1)

Render Judgment was green but game in his second start against a full field of maidens at Churchill. He tailgated the early speed. Then Brian Hernandez Jr. switched him to the outside in the stretch. This confused Render Judgement, as he lost forward focus for a moment. Once he caught sight of the horses in front, Render Judgment got back into the game, although he turned his head away from a rival while passing. The Ken McPeek trainee completed 1 1/6 miles in 1:44.83, with slow internal fractions of 24, 48, 1:14 and 1:38. He earned an average 87 speed rating and a decent 96 late pace figure. By Blame, Render Judgment is the first foal out of a daughter of Commissioner. His dam-sire was a multiple graded winning router who placed in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Class in his distaff line skips to the third generation, including Grade 1 winning turf miler Karelian and Queen’s Plate hero Basquwin. Render Judgment is still learning but could have a say in the exotics if he moves forward off his maiden victory.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Render Judgment finished a solid second in his debut race, a seven furlong affair, at 41-1 odds. McPeek stretched the colt out to 1 1/16 mile for his second start, which resulted in a win. Nothing of note has exited Render Judgment’s first race and most from his second race have not made subsequent starts. McPeek is 0% with a 25% in-the-money rate with 2-year-olds in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Exotics.

10. Redacted (30-1)

Redacted turns around in two weeks after a clear second-place finish against maidens over a sloppy Churchill track. The Dallas Stewart trainee let the top pair fight it out early before taking command down the lane, but he couldn’t hold off the winner. Redacted was bested 4 1/2 lengths and was 4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. His 76 speed rating is the lowest in the field. The son of Honor Code is out of an unraced daughter of Distorted Humor. His second dam, Color Me Up, is a multiple Grade 2 placed miler. There’s a smattering of listed blacktype sprinter/milers in Redacted’s third generation. Redacted needs considerable improvement to conquer this field. Pass.

Also from the Dallas Stewart barn, Redacted in still a maiden. He debuted just two weeks ago at Churchill Downs in the slop in a seven-furlong, $92,000 maiden event. Like Laurie said, Redacted had the lead after stalking the early pace but could not fend off the winner. Stewart is 9% with a 22% in-the-money clip with sprint to route runners. Stewart is just 11% with a 21% in-the-money clip in graded races over the last year. Edgar Morales takes over from Tyler Gaffalione. Pass.

                Laurie

           Ashley

7. Sonic Skidaddle (6-1)

1. He’s Not Joking (8-1)

2. Jonathan’s Way (5-2)

2. Jonathan’s Way (5-2)

1. He’s Not Joking (8-1)

8. First Resort (9-2)

9. Render Judgement (12-1)

9. Render Judgment (12-1)