Laurie

Ashley

1. Coal Battle (10-1)

Coal Battle is undefeated on dirt and is on a roll, having captured his last three starts, including a 4-length score in the Smarty Jones in January. He was allowed to set glacial fractions in the Smarty Jones and walked home in the 1 1/16-mile contest in 1:46.43. The Lonnie Briley trainee’s Brisnet Speed Ratings range from 82 to 92, his late-pace figures are in the upper 90s, and he shares the Rebel’s highest late pace figure of 99 with Smoken Wicked. Coal Front’s son is out of the stakes-placed sprinter Wolfblade. The first three generations of this female family contain restricted-listed class sprinters, plus Grade 3 winner Easy Time. Coal Battle has tactical speed and is a legitimate contender.

Trained by Lonnie Briley, Coal Battle enters the Rebel on a three-race win streak, all stakes races. He annexed the Jean Lafitte and Remington Springboard Mile Stakes to close out his juvenile campaign and opened 2025 with a four-length romp in the Smarty Jones. Coal Battle earned a career high 92 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Springboard Mile and received an 82 for the Smarty Jones. Briley never has won a graded stakes and hasn’t had a graded starter in at least the last five years, according to Race Lens. Regular jockey Juan Vargas retains the mount. Contender.

2. Admiral Dennis (12-1)

Admiral Dennis skipped the Lecomte Stakes to capture an optional-claiming allowance at Fair Grounds a few days later. He switched leads twice in the stretch while holding on to win by 3/4 length over the fast-closing Vamos Carlitos, who was a well-beaten ninth next out in the Risen Star (G2). Admiral Dennis is a steady, one-paced type who hasn’t done much wrong. But his Brisnet Speed Ratings are inconsistent. The Brad Cox trainee’s only off-the-board finish was in the Gun Runner Stakes after a troubled trip. By Constitution, Admiral Dennis is out of Gulf Cost, a stakes-winning miler daughter of Union Rags. Admiral Dennis’s second and third dams are stakes-placed milers, and his fourth dam is the superior mare Weekend Surprise, dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall, and her descendants have shaped racing. Admiral Dennis doesn’t have gears, but he could pass tired runners for a piece of the Rebel pie. Exotics.

Trainer Brad Cox scratched Admiral Dennis from the Lecomte (G3) and instead opted to run him in an optional claimer to kick off the colt’s 2025 campaign. Admiral Dennis just held on to win the 1 1/16-mile event by 3/4 lengths, earning an 82 Brisnet Speed Rating as the odds-on favorite. Before that, Admiral Dennis failed as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner Stakes. Gun Runner winner Built and runner-up Magnitude since have won the Lecomte and Risen Star, respectively. Admiral Dennis did have an excuse in the Gun Runner as he stumbled at the start. Florent Geroux gets the return call. Exotics.

3. Sandman (4-1)

Sandman gives us an exciting stretch drive but has visited the winner’s circle twice in six starts. In the Southwest, he hopped at the start and had to be used early to stay with the field. Sandman was unfocused in the stretch when challenging another horse and drifted out, but he continued to gain on Speed King. The Mark Casse trainee’s Brisnet ratings are in the low 90s, yet his late-pace figures have improved to match. A $1.2 million OBS March 2-year-old sales purchase, Tapit’s son is the third winner in his immediate family. His half-sister, She Can’t Sing, won the 2022 one-mile Chilukki Stakes. Their dam’s half-sister, Grade 3-placed Zinzay, bore stakes winner and Grade 1-placed turf router Moon Over Miami. The quality third generation includes Group and Grade 1 winners Musical Chimes and Musical Note, who bore 2021 Dubai World Cup hero Mystic Guide. The pretty gray colt often has problems getting away cleanly from the gate and getting stuck in traffic. He has a long stride with excellent leg extension and eats up ground. He’s still learning, and the potential is there. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, Sandman closed gallantly to get up for second in the Southwest (G3) in his 2025 debut. In doing so, he tied his career best Brisnet Speed Rating of 91, both earned over the Oaklawn oval. He finished just a length behind gate-to-wire winner Speed King while being 1 1/2 lengths clear of third-place finisher Tiztastic. He also owns a victory over Innovator. Cristian Torres gets the return call. Contender.

4. Hypnus (10-1)

Hypnus graduated at first asking over a sloppy, chewed-up Fair Grounds track on the Lecomte Stakes undercard. He closed from the middle of the pack and was focused despite a rival veering out next to him in the stretch. He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:46.33, with a final half-furlong in 6.35 seconds, compared to the Lecomte’s 1:47.07 and 6.98. Hypnus’s time was the third-fastest of the day, behind older stakes horses. The Ken McPeek trainee earned a 92 speed rating and 97 late-pace figure. He recorded two recent five-furlong moves in 1:00.0. Into Mischief’s son is out of Uncle Mo’s daughter Dream Tree, the 2017 Starlet (G1) heroine who also captured two Grade 2 events at three. Dream Tree’s full sister bore a stakes placed miler by Into Mischief’s son, Practical Joke. The well-bred Hypnus is ambitiously placed for his first start against experienced winners. He could regress in his second start, but his work pattern indicates forward movement. Hypnus is worth a long-shot exotics look.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Hypnus debuted a winner in a 1 1/16-mile maiden event at Fair Grounds on the Lecomte undercard. The colt rallied from off the pace to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Laurie already discussed the Lecomte-day times, but I’m going to reiterate it because I feel it’s an important bullet point. Hypnus completed his race in 1:46.33, nearly a full second faster than Lecomte winner Disco Time’s final time of 1:47.07. So far that race has produced one next-out winner. Hypnus received a 91 Equibase speed figure and a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return call. Contender.

5. Madaket Road (9-2)

Madaket Road emerges from the shadow of his celebrated stablemate Citizen Bull and hopes to gain a ninth Rebel Stakes trophy for Bob Baffert. But he also will have to deal with Bullard, who bested him by 4 1/2 lengths in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3). Madaket Road’s speed ratings are middling, and he’s lost ground in two of three starts. Quality Road’s son is out of Grade 2-winning sprinter Frolic’s Dream, and Madaket Road is half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bode’s Dream and Grade 3-placed runner Wyeth. None of Madaket Road’s beaten rivals from a maiden contest have distinguished themselves as anything special, and he needs to step up and prove he’s not a $650,000 flop. I’m betting against the Baffert-Irad Ortiz Jr. connections. Pass.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Madaket Road debuted in the Bob Hope, finishing 4 3/4 lengths behind Bullard. He broke his maiden at second asking but could only manage third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), which was won by Eclipse winner Citizen Bull. Normally I like Baffert shippers to Oaklawn, but Madaket Road is clearly not the big gun in his barn. Baffert apparently is hoping to separate this colt from his better runners in the hopes of getting more Derby points. In an unusual twist, Irad Ortiz Jr. will partner with Baffert for the Rebel and will be Madaket Road’s fourth jockey in as many starts. Baffert and Ortiz have not won together since 2020. Pass.

6. Publisher (20-1)

I had high hopes that Publisher would be in the money in the Southwest Stakes based on his record of consistently hitting the board. And yes, I like his name. In his defense, Publisher had a nightmare trip. He bobbled at the break and spent much of the race stuck in traffic. Young Erik Asmussen and the willing Publisher skimmed the rail around the turn, and they were making a sustained run until American Promise came in on them, causing Publisher to steady hard and almost falling. Erik Asmussen’s immediate reaction avoided a terrible accident. Steve Asmussen gave Publisher a second-to-last 1:00 bullet five-furlong work, and his final four-furlong breeze in 49.80 was quicker than his Southwest post-race works. American Pharoah’s son is the first foal out of the stakes-winning sprinter, Indian Pride. The mare’s half-sister, Tu Endie Wei, was Canada’s 2011 champion 2-year-old filly and another half-sister, Biofuel, was a multiple graded winner who placed in the CCA Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose (G1) Flavian Pratt takes over on this Steve Asmussen charge, and I’m staying with my initial assessment of this colt being a live long shot.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Publisher continues to qualify for maiden races. Although he hit the trifecta in his first four starts, he finished off the board in seventh last out in the Southwest. The placing was through no fault of his own. Publisher made a bold move up the rail and was gaining on the leaders, but Erik Asmussen had to stomp on the brakes when American Promise drifted into their lane. American Promise was disqualified, and Publisher was placed sixth. I liked this colt in the Southwest and had him on my ticket. Considering the circumstances of his last start, I’m not giving up on him here. Flavien Prat replaces regular rider Erik Asmussen. Use underneath.

7.  Dreaminblue (15-1)

Dreaminblue got the job done in his fourth start sprinting against a field composed of mainly career maidens. He completed six furlongs in 1:11 with a swift 12.05-second final furlong. Previously, he lost the head bob to Innovator, who returned to finish third in the Lecomte. Dreaminblue completed his final furlong in 12.38. Dreaminblue’s Brisnet Speed Rating jumped 18 points to 96, and he earned a 98 late-pace figure, which could signal a regression in his next start or that maybe he’s turned the corner. Street Boss’s son is out of Curlin’s daughter, Dreamy Blues. The mare’s Grade 2-winning half-sister, Shawklit Mint, is the grand-dam of multiple Grade 2-placed turf router Crafty Daddy. The Randy Morse trainee has tactical speed, and his pedigree suggests he’ll enjoy two turns. Live long shot.

Trained by Randy Morse, Dreaminblue is a last-out maiden winner, finally finding the winner’s circle in his fourth start. The colt’s debut race produced two next-out winners: Ozark Stakes hero I Got Game and Withers winner Captain Cook. Nothing has come from his second race, and Lecomte (G3) third place finisher Innovator beat Dreaminblue by just a head in the latter’s third start. Dreaminblue’s sole victory came on the Southwest (G3) undercard, and he received a 104 Equibase speed figure and a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating for his 3 1/2-length victory in the six-furlong affair. Dreaminblue has only one prior attempt around two turns, finishing fourth in a one-mile maiden event. Morse has only one graded-stakes victory in the last five years, according to Race Lens, and is 18% wins with a 36% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners over the last year. Francisco Arrieta takes over from regular rider Cristian Torres, who will be aboard Sandman instead. Pass.

8. Innovator (15-1)

Innovator took them on a merry chase in the Lecomte but was mentally weary and going up and down in the stretch. His 2 1/2-length lead dwindled, and he was passed late by Disco Time and Built. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee earned a middling 88 speed rating, and his 80 late-pace figure is one of the lowest in the Rebel field. Lucas gave his charge a pre-race five-furlong bullet 59.8-second move. By no. 4 first-crop sire Authentic, Innovator is out of the multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Inspired, a daughter of Unbridled’s Song. Innovator’s half-brother, Carmel Road, placed in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), and half-sister Night Time Lady is a stakes-placed turf miler. Another half-sister bore Preakness and Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) hero National Treasure. Innovator should be fit and offer improvement in his second start around two turns and return to fast dirt. He likely will face pressure from other speed types, but he always manages to hang on for a piece. He reminds me of Midnight Bourbon, who rarely won but always brought home a check. Exotics.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Innovator returns to the scene of his lone victory. The son of Authentic finally tasted victory in his seventh start, wiring a six-furlong event by digging in late to last by a head. He bravely tried the same tactics in his 2025 debut. Lukas sent the colt out in the Lecomte, his first attempt at a route, and Innovator rewarded the faith with a third-place finish. He lost by only 3/4 lengths after playing catch-me-if-you-can with the rest of the field. I had Innovator as an exotics play for the Lecomte, though I eventually left him off my ticket in favor of long shot Golden Afternoon, who finished fourth. Innovator ran each quarter slower than the last in the Lecomte and had no excuse for not being able to seal the deal. Tyler Bacon, who was aboard for Innovator’s victory, takes back over from Jaime Torres. Pass.

9. Smoken Wicked (8-1)

Smoken Wicked outran his pedigree last summer, finishing second in the Bashford Manor and third in the Saratoga Special (G2). Lately, he beat up on lesser foes in a pair of Louisiana state-bred stakes. The Dallas Stewart trainee’s speed ratings are consistently in the 90s, with decent late-pace figures, all earned while sprinting. First-crop sire Bobby’s Wicked One captured the Commonwealth Stakes (G3) and placed in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Smoken Wicked is the second runner and first winner in his immediate family. There’s little black type in his family, although his second dam, Magic Smoke, won a stakes as a 2-year-old. Smoken Wicked fired a 1:00.0 five-furlong bullet for the Rebel. He has tactical speed, but can he defy gravity and fly home against a saltier bunch? Perhaps if the race falls apart, but I’ll pass. 

Trained by Dallas Stewart, Smoken Wicked earned a whopping 112 Equibase Speed Figure for his Louisiana Futurity victory to close out his juvenile campaign. Brisnet gave him a 98 speed rating. While Smoken Wicked is a dual stakes winner, both victories were in Louisiana-bred events. But he did finish second in the Bashford Manor, third in the Saratoga Special (G2) and fourth in both the Hopeful (G1) and the Champagne (G1). The Champagne is Smoken Wicked’s only attempt around two turns, and he finished 15 1/2 lengths behind winner Chancer McPatrick. Stewart is 0% winners with a dismal 14% in-the-money clip with sprint-to-route runners and 5% wins with a 15% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year. Tyler Gaffalione replaces Colby Hernandez. Pass.

10. Bullard (5-1)

The Michael McCarthy trainee spiked a fever and will be scratched.

11. Speed King (6-1)

Speed King is living up to his name as a pacesetter with plenty of speed. He isn’t afraid of a battle on the front end, either. But he saw his lead diminish from 3 1/2 lengths in the Southwest Stakes and held on desperately to beat a troubled Sandman by a length. The Ron Moquett trainee’s Brisnet ratings are in the low 90s, but his late-pace figures are at the low end. He received a 77 for his Southwest victory. By no. 2-ranked first-crop sire, the Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile, Speed King is the fourth competitor out of a winning daughter of Corinthian. This family is distance-challenged. None of Speed King’s half-siblings have won beyond a mile, and only one was successful once in multiple attempts at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Grade 1-winning miler Mor Spirit and champion 3-year-old filly Stellar Wind are part of the extended family. The pretty gray Speed King is living up to his name and outrunning his pedigree, but he’ll have to hustle to get to the lead from the outside post. As his rivals with distance-oriented pedigrees mature, we’ll see this king dethroned. Pass.

Trained by Ron Moquett, Speed King was just that in the Southwest. With Rafael Bejarano aboard, Speed King overcame his outside post, crossed over the field and had things all his own way. He received a 103 Equibase speed figure and a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. Speed King has never been worse than second in his career and took advantage of Coal Battle’s absence last out. Coal Battle previously run had him down in the Remington Springboard Mile. Moquett is 10% wins with a 33% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Bejarano gets the return call. Speed King will have to overcome an even more far outside post and hope to beat Innovator to the lead. Exotics.

12. Brereton’s Baytown (50-1)

Brereton’s Baytown is the Rebel Stakes why horse as a winner of two of nine lifetime, including a victory against $40,000 claimers at Laurel in his last start. Upstart’s son is out of the unraced Birdstone mare Kika. Her half-brother Chewing Gum is a Grade 2 winning sprinter who was second to Casa Creed in the Jaipur (G1). Their half-sister Sinfilter is a Grade 3-placed turf router. The Paul McEntee’s charge has low speed ratings and needs considerable improvement to run with his Rebel competitors. Pass.

Trained by Paul McEntee, Brereton’s Baytown is cross-entered in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park. The son of Upstart is the most experienced runner in the field with nine starts. But he has only two victories, and those two wins are the only times he has hit the board. His wins were in a maiden event at Charles Town and a claiming race at Laurel, and he previously finished behind Publisher and Tiztastic. McEntee has never won a graded race and is also 0% across the board in graded races over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Should he run here, Joseph Bealmear, who has never won a stakes race, is named to ride. Pass.

13. Tiztastic (8-1)

Tiztastic takes yet another shot at the Kentucky Derby trail after being bested by a combined 11 1/2 lengths in the Street Sense, Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Southwest. But take a closer look at his first start off the layoff in the Southwest. He made a sustained wide drive and followed Sandman down the lane, picking off rivals and making up three lengths in the stretch to finish third, 2 1/2 lengths behind Speed King. The Steve Asmussen trainee earned a career-best 90 rating and a 92 late-pace figure. Tiztastic recorded a second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 1:00.0, so he should be on his toes. By third leading first-crop sire Tiz the Law, Tiztastic is out of an unraced Tapit mare. Tapit is also Tiz the Law’s grandsire. Tiztastic’s half-sister Interpolate is a stakes-winning sprinter, while his third dam is multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Strategic Maneuver. Tiztastic could be an improving 3-year-old and although he’s breaking from an outside post, it doesn’t matter to his tactical running style. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, turf stakes winning Tiztastic enters off three straight solid efforts in graded stakes on dirt. Tiztastic was second in the Steet Sense, third in the Kentucky Jockey Club and third in the Southwest. He’s been running well on dirt, but both career wins were on turf. He’s been outkicked on the dirt each time though it has so far been enough to earn him checks and points. Jose Ortiz takes over from Keith Asmussen. Use underneath.

14. Hot Gunner (50-1)

After graduating at first asking at Lone Star, Hot Gunner has struggled against allowance types at runners at Prairie Meadows and Remington Park. He was no threat in the Smarty Jones Stakes, and the Scott Young trainee’s Brisnet ratings are some of the lowest in the Rebel field. Exaggerator’s son is out of the winning Flatter mare You Flatter Me. Her half-sister, Just Read It, is a stakes-winning sprinter. The family includes multiple graded winning sprinter-miler Venetian Harbor, and Hot Gunner’s fifth dam is 1989 Champion Sprinter Safely Kept. Hot Gunner hasn’t shown the ability to compete with this group. Pass. 

Trained by Scott Young, Hot Gunner is 8: 2-0-2 lifetime. He won his debut at Lonestar and his most recent outing at Sam Houston. Previous stakes attempts resulted in a third in the Prairie Meadows Freshman Stakes, a fifth in the Kip Deville, fourth in the Clever Trevor and a sixth in the Smarty Jones. Young has never won a graded stakes and is 0% across the board in graded races over the last five years. Harry Hernandez, who was aboard in the Smarty Jones, has the call. Pass.