Laurie

Ashley

1. First Resort (12-1)

After graduating at first asking, First Resort dueled through fast fractions in the Saratoga Special (G2). He looked like a winner in the mid-stretch, but the winner, Showcase, came from off the pace and was too strong. The Eoin Harty trainee had shipped and faced winners for the first time, so it was an excellent effort. First Resort’s Brisnet speed rating jumped nine points to 89. He returned with a trio of consecutively faster five-furlong breezes at Turfway, with a final work in 1:00.60. A Godolphin homebred by Uncle Mo, First Resort should handle a mile and may go farther. First Resort is the first foal out of Grade 1-winning sprinter Fair Maiden, who captured the Catch a Glimpse Stakes on turf as a 2-year-old. His fourth dam is Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Secret Status. First Resort has sharp early speed and likely will go to the lead from post 1. As the only graded-stakes placed runner, he is the class of the field. He can hang on for a piece. Exotics.

Trained by Eoin Harty, First Resort debuted a winner at Ellis Park in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event over a muddy track. Three from that race finished second in their next start, and one of those won their third start after moving to Horseshoe Indianapolis. First Resort made his next start in the Saratoga Special (G2) and finished second, 3 1/4 lengths behind the winner and a neck in front of the third-place finisher. In the last year, Harty has been 14 percent with a 41 percent in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners. During that same time frame, Harty is winless in nine graded stakes races, with First Resort being the only trainee to hit the board, according to Race Lens. Rafael Bejarano, who has gone 0-for-12 over the last 10 days, has the call. Pass.

2. Giocoso (10-1)

Giocoso gives the dirt another try after two decent races on the lawn, and he towered over rivals by 6 1/2 lengths in his last start, so there’s ability there. Giocoso’s dirt debut wasn’t that bad. The Keith Desormeaux trainee was off slow and ate dirt but made a wide, sustained rally down the lane. He was green while bearing in and bumping. His mind wasn’t moving forward, it was on the horse next to him. Still, Giocoso finished fifth in a field that included three next-out winners, Owen Almighty, two other winners, and three second-place finishers. Giocoso’s Brisnet ratings have improved in each start, although they’re lower than some others in the Iroquois, so he has room for improvement. Giocoso has a solid turf-oriented pedigree. Although his sire, Not This Time, won on dirt, his sire is the legendary iron horse, Giant’s Causeway. Giocoso’s dam and half-sister were best over all-weather and turf, and his distaff line’s second and third generations contain international turf black-type winners. Despite the turfy family, Giocoso has a nice extension when he runs and seemed to get over the dirt just fine. He’s handled 1 1/16 miles on the lawn, so he’s fit for the cut back in distance. I like this colt, and his speed figures are improving. Long shot for exotics.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Giocoso finished fifth beaten by 13 1/4 lengths to Owen Almighty in what was both of their debuts. Desormeaux then switched the colt to the turf where he ran second in a one-mile maiden event and won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 6 1/4 lengths. That race has been solid; there were two next-out winners and another four who hit the board next out. Giocoso’s Equibase speed figures have improved with each start, but I don’t love the turf-to-dirt angle. Over the past year, Desormeaux is 8 percent with a 38 percent in the money rate with turf-to-dirt runners and winless with only an 8 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes. Regular jockey James Graham retains the mount. Pass.

3. Jack’s Time (20-1)

Jack’s Time steps up in class after finishing in front of rivals in a paid workout at Prairie Meadows in his debut. His fractions for 5 1/2 furlongs were decent, 22.47, 45.82 and 57.47 seconds, and finishing in 1:03.53, with a final half-furlong in 6.06 seconds without being seriously asked. The Kelly Von Hemel trainee was a little green, breaking in at the start from the 1 post, typical of a first-time starter, but he had the speed to recover. Jack’s Time earned an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating with an average 89 late-pace figure. Also by Not This Time, Jack’s Time should handle two turns, although his dam and half-siblings are sprinters. He is the third competitor and winner out of Iowa Sorority Stakes winner Msbrooklynbrawler. His pedigree is light on black type, but 2010 champion sprinter Big Drama is a distant relative. Jack’s Time may be part of the pace scenario. His speed ratings are average, and his pedigree is light on black type. Pass.

Trained by Kelly Von Hemel, Jack’s Time was a dominant winner of a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Prairie Meadows on debut. Despite being off a step slow, Jack’s Time rushed up to set the pace and then drew off to win by 10 3/4 lengths. The second-place finisher was second again next out while the third-place finisher was a next-out winner. Von Hemel is an 8 percent winner with a 40 percent in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners and is 1-for-2 in the money in graded stakes over the past year. Kentucky Oaks and Derby winner Brian Hernandez Jr. picks up the mount. Pass.

4. Authentic Strike (12-1)

Authentic Strike, a $450,000 OBS March 2-year-olds in training purchase, won on debut. Pressured every step of the way, Authentic’s son had a thrilling battle to the wire and refused to yield, winning by a determined neck. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:23.38, with a 12.98-second final furlong, and earned an 81 speed rating. Authentic Strike recorded three pre-race works for the Iroquois, including a second-to-last five-furlong movein 59.8 seconds. Authentic Strike has a classic pedigree, so the farther, the better. By eighth-ranked first-crop sire Authentic, Authentic Strike is the first winner in his immediate family. His dam Wise Strike, by Smart Strike, is half to a stakes-winning sprinter, and the second dam is a stakes-placed turf sprinter. The family includes multiple Grade 3-winning sprinter Custom for Carlos and the tenacious Grade 1-winning turf mare Megahertz. Like his rivals, Authentic Strike needs to prove he can relax behind the pace, and his speed figures need to improve. But I liked his competitive spirit, and he’ll be tough. Exotics.

Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, Authentic Strike debuted a winner in a seven-furlong maiden event at Ellis Park. The colt made every pole a winning one to prevail by a neck at the wire. He beat 11 rivals, and of those 11, only three have made subsequent starts. Those three all failed to hit the board. Brisset is 7 percent with a 38 percent in-the-money strike rate with runners going from a sprint to a route over the last year, according to Race Lens, but he’s also 31 percent with a 54 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes during that same time frame. Luis Saez retains the mount. Use underneath.

5. Owen Almighty (5-2)

The undefeated Owen Almighty hounded Politicallycorrect in the early stages of the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes. The pair separated from the rest, and the race was on until mid-stretch when Politicallycorrect lost the battle of wills, and his stride became choppy. He lost focus while going up and down instead of forward. Meanwhile, Owen Almighty wasn’t fazed and continued his forward momentum to win by 4 3/4 lengths under a hand ride. The Brian Lynch trainee traveled seven furlongs in 1:24.36 with a slow 13.30-second final furlong. Owen Almighty’s 87 Brisnet Speed Rating was equal to his debut, although his 87 late-pace figure was lower and is at the bottom third of the Iroquois field. He returned with two works, including a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:00.20, faster than his previous breezes, always a good sign. By Speightstown, Owen Almighty is the first foal out of the Grade 2 winner Tempers Rising, who won or placed up to 1 1/8 miles. The dam is half to a stakes-winning sprinter, and there is little black type in the third generation of the distaff line. With Irad Ortiz Jr. taking over, Owen Almighty is the favorite, but I’m not sold on his low speed ratings. Exotics.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Owen Almighty is undefeated in two starts. He debuted at Churchill in a 5 1/2-furlong event, winning by 3 1/2 lengths. It was an OK field, producing two next-out winners and a few who hit the board in their next starts. Last out, the colt won the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes by 4 3/4 lengths over runner-up Politicallycorrect. However, his Equibase speed figure dropped from a field-best 95 in his debut to an 86. Irad Ortiz Jr., who will be Owen Almighty’s third jockey in as many starts, has the call. Contender.

6. Strummin (12-1)

After playing the bridesmaid in four of his last six starts, including the five-furlong Kentucky Juvenile, Strummin stretched to a mile and promptly rewarded his connections with a 2 3/4-length victory over a herd of maidens at Ellis Park. Although he broke with the pack, Strummin was content to settle three wide at the back. Cristian Torres pushed the “go” button, and Strummin circled the field, picked off runners without hesitation, and cleared the field by 2 3/4 lengths under a hand ride, completing the mile in 1:38.65 with an average-to-slow 13.19 final furlong. Clearly fit after six starts, the pretty gray colt turns around in 19 days. John Hancock’s charge earned a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed Rating, and his 96 late-pace figure is the second-highest in the Iroquois field. By second-crop sire Flameaway, Strummin is the first foal out of the Kantharos mare, Queen of the Party, a sprinter-miler veteran of 44 starts. Class skips to the third generation of the distaff line and includes the multiple Group 1 hero Caravaggio. But Strummin’s speed ratings are inconsistent, and he’s a candidate to regress. Pass.

Trained by John Hancock, Strummin broke his maiden in his most recent start. My jaw admittedly dropped when I first pulled up his past performances because the Iroquois will be this colt’s seventh start. This colt didn’t find the winner’s circle until Hancock replaced Victor Lebron with Cristian Torres. With Torres aboard, Strummin sat closer to the pace than he had in previous races, and that seemed to help as he rallied and pulled away to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Strummin is stakes-placed via a second-place finish in the $250,000, five-furlong Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill. Hancock has never saddled a graded-stakes winner, though he is 33 percent with a 67 percent in-the-money rate in stakes races over the last year. Torres retains the mount. Use underneath.

7. Sandman (6-1)

Sandman won his second start looking like the $1.2 million OBS March 2-year-old in training that he is. Professional every step of the way, the pretty gray colt settled behind the pace, athletically cut the corner and won the argument with the pacesetter. Sandman cleared by a workmanlike 1 3/4 lengths, completing seven furlongs in 1:23.62 with a decent 12.61-second final furlong while under a hand ride at Saratoga. The Mark Casse trainee earned a 90 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 90 late-pace figure. He recorded two four-furlong maintenance works for the Iroquois. By Tapit, Sandman is the third winner in his immediate family. His half-sister, She Can’t Sing, won the 2022 one-mile Chilukki Stakes. Their dam’s half-sister, Grade 3-placed Zinzay, bore stakes winner and Grade 1-placed turf router Moon Over Miami. The quality third generation includes Group and Grade 1 winners Musical Chimes and Musical Note, who bore 2021 Dubai World Cup hero Mystic Guide. Sandman is a typical son of Tapit. He has his sire’s body style and competitive nature. More importantly, Sandman showed a willingness to rate and the confidence to pass horses on the rail. Contender.

Trained by Mark Casse, Sandman was fifth in his debut, beaten by 11 1/2 lengths as the favorite by a colt that was eighth in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his next start. He bounced back to win at second asking, taking a seven-furlong maiden event at Saratoga by 1 3/4 lengths. Second place finisher and favored Innovator ran fifth in the Hopeful (G1) in his next start. Casse is 18 percent with a 42-percent in the money strike rate with sprint-to-route runners and is just a high percentage trainer period. I want to like this colt, but the quality of competition he’s faced just doesn’t have me sold. Jose Ortiz has the call. Pass.

8. Magnitude (8-1)

In his second start, Magnitude ran away from an overmatched field at Ellis Park by 5 3/4 lengths, completing seven furlongs in a slow 1:24, although he completed his final furlong in a decent 12.70 seconds. He didn’t beat much. Five rivals have returned, and one placed second. Magnitude earned a middling 85 speed rating but a competitive 93 late-pace figure. Steve Assmussen’s charge has a trio of recent four- and five-furlong works, including a bullet five furlongs in 59.4 seconds. Not This Time’s son Magnitude is the fourth foal and first winner in his immediate family. His second dam, Octave, captured the Grade 1 Mother Goose and CCA Oaks and among her many placings was second in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks. The Asmussen-Gaffalione team must be respected. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude was fourth in his debut. That race produced two next-out winners, one on turf, and another who is stakes-placed in New York-bred company. Asmussen switched from Tyler Gaffalione to his son Erik, who put the colt on the lead, for Magnitude’s next start. The changes made a difference as Magnitude drew away to win by 5 3/4 lengths. The 88 Equibase speed figure he earned is mediocre, and Gaffalione will once again be in the irons. I’m on the fence with this one. Exotics.

9. Firmus (20-1)

Firmus had a promising debut at Ellis Park. He broke sharply but was content to track the pacesetters. In textbook style, Firmus circled the field and cleared by 1 1/4 lengths, traveling six furlongs in a decent 1:11.80 with a 12.82-second final quarter, although he received only a 79 Brisnet rating and a tepid 84 late-pace figure. The Wayne Catalano trainee returned to the worktab with a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.4 at Churchill and followed up with a strong second-best of 32 four-furlong move in 47 seconds flat. Curlin’s son Firmus is the second foal and winner out of Farrell, a multiple graded-stakes winner from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. Her half-brother is multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Carpe Diem, and another half-brother, J. B’s Thunder, won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Firmus has a classy pedigree and proved that he’ll rate behind the pace. He’s bred to love two turns, and two sharp post-race works have my attention. Exotics.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Firmus debuted a winner in a six-furlong maiden event at Ellis Park. He received just a 74 Equibase speed figure for the race. Because that race was contested on Aug. 24, only one from that field has made a subsequent start, and he failed to hit the board. None of Catalano’s four runners even hit the board in a graded stakes in the past year, according to Race Lens. Ricardo Santana Jr. will get the leg up. Pass.

10. Jonathan’s Way (9-2)

Jonathan’s Way overcame minor trouble at the start of his Saratoga debut and made a sustained drive, circling seven wide and leaving the field 4 1/4 lengths behind. The Phil Bauer trainee earned an 89 Brisnet Speed Rating and a strong 97 late-pace figure, the highest in the Iroquois field. Jonathan’s Way returned with a pair of four-furlong works, including a pre-race 47.8-second move. By third-ranked first-crop sire Vekoma, Jonathan’s Way is the sixth foal and winner out of Female Drama, a stakes-winning sprinter. Jonathan’s Way’s half-brother Startdfromdabottom is a multiple restricted stakes-placed sprinter. The black type in the second generation of this family is mainly South American. But 2021 Kentucky Derby hero Monarchos is a distant relative. Jonathan’s Way is iffy from a class standpoint, and he has a sprinter’s body and upright movement, so distance may be a concern. But he was professional in his debut and overcame trouble, something most of this group hasn’t done. Exotics.

Trained by Philip Bauer, Jonathan’s Way debuted a winner at Saratoga in a six-furlong maiden event. It’s difficult to say what he beat that day since most of the field has not made a subsequent start. The two who have, however, failed to land in the money. Jonathan’s Way received a respectable 89 Equibase speed figure for his debut effort. Bauer is currently performing well across all the categories relevant to this race. Joel Rosario has the return call. Contender.

11. Mesero (15-1)

Mesero, a $535,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, overcame trouble in his Ellis Park debut over a sloppy track. He didn’t break well but picked off horses while circling the field to run down the tired pacesetters, mostly under a hand ride. Although the Dale Romans trainee completed six furlongs in an average 1:11.97, his final furlong was a slow 13.19 seconds, and two rivals returned to beat lesser fields. Despite the slow final furlong, Mesero earned a 92 late-pace figure, but only a 79 overall rating. His last trio of five-furlong works were in the 1:00 to 1:01 range. Not This Time’s son Mesero is the fifth foal and third winner out of the stakes-placed sprinter Lemon Liqueur. Mesero’s half-sister is the talented turf router Bleecker Street, who captured the 2022 New York Stakes (G1), plus multiple Grade 2 and 3 events. Mesero has overcome trouble. He didn’t appear to be all out winning his debut, and his pedigree indicates a mile will suit, but he’ll get a wide trip from post 11. Exotics.

Trained by Dale Romans, Mesero debuted a winner at Ellis Park in a six-furlong event contested in the mud. That race produced two next-out winners and a couple who hit the board two starts after that one in turf races. Romans is 0-for-14 with a 21 percent in-the-money clip with graded stakes runners over the past year, according to Race Lens. Corey Lanerie has the return call. Pass.

12. Politicallycorrect (6-1)

Bashford Manor Stakes hero Politicallycorrect was owned by Owen Almighty in the Ellis Park Juvenile, losing the battle of wills in the stretch. Granted, Politicallycorrect might have gotten a little tired, since it was his first start off the layoff while stretching out, and his late-pace figure of 77 shows he was a tired horse. Chris Davis gave Politicallycorrect two slow four-furlong maintenance works as preps for the Iroquois Stakes, and the blinkers come off. By Violence, Politicallycorrect is the fourth foal and winner out of his dam, a daughter of Candy Ride. Although his second dam is a Grade 3 winner in Japan, the bright spot in Politicallycorrect’s distaff line is his third dam, multiple Grade 1 winner Lite Light. Politcallycorrect needs to return to his Bashford Manor form to have a winning shot here. He was more effective from off the pace and his outside post is conducive to that running style, but his speed ratings are slow. Pass.

Trained by Christopher Davis, Politicallycorrect debuted a winner at Churchill Downs in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event. It was a weak field as none have come back winners and only one managed to hit the board, and that was on turf. In his second start, the colt won the Bashford Manor by five lengths. Last out, Owen Almighty handed Politicallycorrect his first loss. Politicallycorrect finished 4 3/4 lengths behind that rival in second. Davis has saddled only one graded-stakes winner in his career and has an 11 percent in-the-money strike rate in graded events over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Florent Geroux replaces both Luis Saez and Jose Ortiz. The colt’s speed figures aren’t much to look at, but I find myself rather liking Politicallycorrect. Contender.