Laurie

Ashley

1.      Mellencamp, 6-1

In his first race as a 3-year-old, Mellencamp came knocking in a one-mile maiden event, but he was no threat to the winner, finishing a distant second by 4 3/4 lengths. He’s been beaten twice by Journalism and once by Smooth Cruisein. The Baffert trainee earned a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed Rating and a competitive 96 late-pace figure, so he’s maturing. A $775,000 Keeneland September yearling, Constitution’s son is the first foal out of a Bayern mare and has a classic pedigree. His dam is half to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter American Gal, multiple graded-placed sprinter Americanize and Grade 3-placed miler Magic Tap. Mellencamp’s extended family includes multiple Grade 1 heroine Seventh Street and the hardy Group 1 winning sprinter Reynaldothewizard. Mellencamp should mature with age and distance and perhaps switch to a different running style and less speed-favoring track. Pass.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Mellencamp has been chasing  stablemates around the Southern California tracks. He is currently 4: 0-2-0, finishing second on debut to Smooth Cruisein, off the board behind Journalism in races two and three and second to Baeza in his most recent start. I’m sure that he will get that elusive victory at some point, but he will not break his maiden here against rivals that already have bested him. Not to mention that his last shot in graded company resulted in a well-beaten fifth, 16 lengths behind winner Journalism. Mike Smith has the call. Pass.

2.      Journalism, 7-2

Journalism improved in each start last year, culminating with an easy 3 1/2-length victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity, besting eventual Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Gaming, who more recently tossed a clunker in the Southwest Stakes (G3). The Mike McCarthy trainee’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved in each start, and he packs a strong late kick, with two triple-digit late-pace figures to his credit. Sold for $825,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale, Curlin’s son is the first foal out of the competitive Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, a Grade 2-winning miler who is multiple Grade 1-placed from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles against the likes of Midnight Bisou, Unique Bella and Able Tasman. Journalism has classic distance breeding, and his off-the-pace style suits this race. Contender.

Trained by Mike McCarthy, Journalism was third on debut behind winner Smooth Cruisein and runner-up Mellencamp in a six-furlong maiden event. McCarthy stretched him out around two turns for his second race, which the colt greatly appreciated. He won that mile race by 2 1/2 lengths and quickly followed that up with an emphatic 3 1/2-length victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He earned a sparkling 105 Equibase speed figure for his maiden victory and a 106 for the Los Alamitos Futurity. Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Getaway Car won the Sunland Park Derby next out, but, as Laurie pointed out, third place finisher Gaming finished a disappointing eighth in the Southwest to kick off his 2025 campaign. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli will be in the irons. Contender.

3.      Barnes, 1-1

Hyped as one of Bob Baffert’s best Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Barnes is undefeated in two starts as a sprinter. He destroyed his San Vicente competition, including Bob Hope (G3) victor Bullard, multiple graded-placed McKinzie Street, and Smooth Cruisein. A $3.2 million yearling purchase, Into Mischief’s son is the first foal out of the American Pharoah mare, All American Dream. The mare’s half-sister, Wind Fire, is a multiple Group placed sprinter in Great Britain. Barnes’s third dam is multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Dream Supreme, who bore Grade 1 winner and sire Majestic Warrior. The Baffert charge’s speed ratings improved in both starts, and his 94 rating is competitive. Barnes should improve with distance. Contender.

Also from the Baffert barn, Barnes is undefeated in two starts. He won his debut by a determined head over Lecomte (G3) third-place finisher Innovator. He then came out swinging in his graded debut, winning the San Vicente by 5 1/2 lengths. I attempted to beat Barnes with Bullard in the San Vicente and obviously failed miserably. He earned a 99 Equibase speed figure and a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the San Vicente win. J. J. Hernandez gets the return call for the San Felipe. Contender.

4.      Rodriguez, 9-5

After Rodriguez bested maidens in his 3-year-old debut, he faced the more experienced Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Rodriguez has natural speed but chased that rival around the oval and finished 3 3/4 lengths behind. The talented colt got the better of Madaket Road by 2 1/4 lengths, and his rival was recently second in the Rebel Stakes (G2). The Baffert trainee earned a 91 speed rating and should improve after he got his slight maiden regression out of the way. In his second-to-last breeze, Rodriguez breezed a bullet six furlongs in 1:11.80 in a solo move. His last work was a brisk five furlongs in 59.60 seconds in company with the 4-year-old filly Cavalieri, winner of the La Canada (G3) in January. Working in blinkers, Rodriguez initially was asked to rate behind the filly. After drawing even, he was distracted, his head turned to the side, looking at horses breezing in front. He had to be encouraged steps from the wire and was in full flight to pass the horses in front. By no. 4-ranked first-crop sire Authentic, Rodriguez is a three-quarter brother to 2017 Southwest Stakes (G3) hero One Liner and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Provocateur. The extended family includes 2008 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero Albertus Maximus and Grade 1 winner and sire Daredevil. Rodriguez may have Barnes or Mellencamp breathing down his mane. Maybe he can get brave on the front end, but ultimately he needs to prove that he’s not a need-the-lead type. Exotics.

The third entrant from the Baffert Barn, Rodriguez enters off a runner-up effort to champion Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis. The son of Authentic was second on debut and got his photo taken at second asking with a seven-length romp in a mile event. Rodriguez’s Equibase speed figures have improved with each start, capped by a 100 in the Robert B. Lewis. Additionally, he was flattered by stablemate Madaket Road finishing second in the Rebel (G2) this past weekend. Flavien Prat takes over from J. J. Hernandez, who sticks with Barnes. Exotics.

5.      Smooth Cruisein, 30-1

In their October debut, Smooth Cruisein bested Mellencamp and Journalism. Then Karen Headley put Smooth Cruisein on the shelf until the San Vicente, where he faced more experienced runners with more recent activity. Smooth Cruisein broke slowest of the five and was pushed to keep up while traveling four wide. The pushing paid off as he beat one horse, the tired McKinzie Street. Since then, Headley has put a series of stamina works, ranging from five furlongs to a mile, under Smooth Cruisein’s girth, so lack of fitness won’t be an excuse. Girvin’s son is out of the winning In Summation mare Smooth Cookie, a sprinter. The mare’s half-brother, Mr Chocolate Chip, is Grade 3-placed, and the second dam is a stakes-winning turf miler. Smooth Cruisein has Rasmussen factor inbreeding, inbred to a superior mare through half-siblings within five generations, to 1982 champion sprinter Gold Beauty through her daughter Maplejinsky, second dam of Tale of Ekati, Grvin’s sire, and England’s Horse of the Year, Dayjur, In Summation’s damsire. Smooth Cruisein’s pedigree suggests he’ll be best from sprints to a mile. Pass.

Trained by Karen Headley, Smooth Cruisein won his debut over fellow entrants Mellencamp and Journalism. However, he could only muster a lackluster fourth in the San Vicente, 8 1/2 lengths behind winner Barnes. Smooth Cruisein has a tendency to break slowly, and you just can’t do that against Baffert’s barn. Headley has not saddled a graded-stakes winner since 2016 and has sent only out one stakes runner, for an off the board finish, in the last year. Regular rider Ricardo Gonzalez has the mount. Pass.

6.      Berlin Wall, 30-1

Still a maiden, Berlin Wall hasn’t fared well against state-breds. Practical Joke’s son is out of the unplaced Uncle Mo mare, Caymanbird. The mare’s half-brother is the grade 3 winning sprint veteran, Sailors Sunset. The second dam, Cayman Sunset, is a stakes placed sprinter. Pass.

Trained by Steve Knapp, Berlin Wall gets to call himself a winner though he’s never crossed the finish line first. He was third on debut and crossed the wire 1 1/2 lengths behind Roman Gratis in his second start. But Roman Gratis was disqualified to third for breaking outwardly and bumping a rival hard. Berlin Wall made both starts against California-breds and doesn’t have the speed figures to warrant his spot in this gate. Knapp is 0% wins with a 19% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Tiago Pereira has the call. Pass.