Photo:
Richard Steele / Eclipse Sportswire
Saturday’s Grade 2, $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity is one of this year’s final qualifying races for Kentucky Derby 2025.
Featured as race eight of nine, a field of five 2-year-old colts will go to the post at 4:00 p.m. EST in the 1 1/16-mile contest.
Bob Baffert hopes to add Los Alamitos Futurity trophy number 15 to his collection with the triple threat of Gaming, Getaway Car and Mellencamp.
Formerly a Grade 1, the Los Alamitos Futurity has lost its luster in recent years, seeing the number of entries dwindle from double digits a dozen years ago to the typical four-to-six-horse fields in recent years and a decline in status to a Grade 2.
Out of the last seven Los Alamitos Futurity winners to make it to the Kentucky Derby in the last 15 years, one Futurity hero, Dortmund (2014), placed third in the Kentucky Derby.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and I make short work of this field.
Laurie |
Ashley |
1. Gaming (2-5) |
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Gaming drops in class after an excellent second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he bested stablemate Getaway Car by 3 1/2 lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee was steady through the Juvenile stretch, clearly second-best despite switching leads late in the stretch. Gaming earned a gaudy 105 Brisnet speed rating and 107 late-pace figure, the highest in the Los Alamitos Futurity field. 2018 Del Mar Futurity winner and 2-year-old champion Game Winner is ranked 11th on the first-crop sire list. Gaming’s dam is the stakes-placed turf sprinter So Stylish. Her half-brother, One Cool Cat, won multiple Group 1 turf sprints in Ireland. Gaming is the class of the race, and in his last two breezes, which were in company, he was professional, switching leads and having push-button acceleration when asked to pass horses in front of him. Contender. |
Trained by Bob Baffert, Gaming fell victim to “the other Baffert” when suffering his first defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Stablemate Citizen Bull defeated him by 2 3/4 lengths, giving Gaming a 3: 2-1-0 record coming into this race. Gaming’s debut race, a 6 1/2-mile event at Del Mar, has proven weak with only the last two finishers in the field of nine coming back to eventually become winners after taking drops in class. The son of Game Winner then won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in his second start. It is interesting to note that Gaming has had three different jockeys in as many starts and has only raced at Del Mar. However, Flavien Prat, who was aboard in the Del Mar Futurity, will reunite with the colt on Saturday. Contender. |
2. Mellencamp (15-1) |
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Mellencamp bested Journalism in their first meeting, but Journalism returned the favor in their second. Mellencamp had to steady early in that meeting, yet he had plenty of time to recover. He fought on the lead, but he wasn’t running anymore in the stretch. The Baffert trainee earned a mediocre 87 Brisnet speed rating. Mellencamp posted a pre-race bullet five-furlong more in 59.8 seconds, the best of 15 for the day. A $775,000 Keeneland September yearling, Constitution’s son is the first foal out of a Bayern mare and has a classic pedigree. His dam is half to multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter American Gal, multiple graded placed sprinter Americanize and Grade 3-placed miler Magic Tap. Mellencamp’s extended family includes multiple Grade 1 heroine Seventh Street and the hardy Group 1 winning sprinter Reynaldothewizard. Mellencamp is a later maturing type and he may be crumblin’ down when the actual running begins. Pass. |
Also from the Baffert barn, Mellencamp enters this race as a maiden after two starts. As Laurie noted, Mellencamp finished ahead of Journalism while running second in his debut. He was then fourth behind first and second place finishers Journalism and Rank in his second start. The only winner from Mellencamp’s debut race was Journalism. Because the colt’s second start was on Nov. 17, only two from that field have made subsequent starts with one hitting the board while dropping into maiden claiming company. Baffert will take the blinkers off Mellencamp, an angle with which he gets 25% winners and is 69% in-the-money over the last year, per Race Lens. Kazushi Kimura, who was aboard in Mellencamp’s debut and is on a cold streak, has the call. Pass. |
3. Getaway Car (3-1) |
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Getaway Car ran out of gas in two of his last three starts. He looked like a good thing in his first two races, capturing his maiden and the Best Pal (G3) by a combined 8 3/4 lengths. Next, the Baffert-trained colt was second-best to Citizen Bull in the American Pharoah (G1) and was flying but didn’t get far in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, flattening out late and losing third place by a neck. Despite the five-length loss, Getaway Car recorded a 101 Brisnet speed rating and a 104 late pace figure. A $700,000 Keeneland September yearling, Curlin’s son is the first foal out of 2017 Landaluce Stakes victress Surrender Now, who also placed in two turf sprints. Surrender Now’s half-brother Red Flag won the Bob Hope (G3) and later placed as a turf miler. Getaway Car’s fifth dam is the superior mare Glowing Tribute, dam of 1993 Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero. Getaway Car does his best work as a pacesetting sprinter and needs to prove himself around two turns. Exotics. |
The third of the Baffert trio, Getaway Car began his career with two straight wins before dropping his next three, all Grade 1 events. Getaway Car’s debut race produced two eventual winners plus Futurity rival Rank. The colt beat just three in the Best Pal (G3) with just White Sands being a black type winner. Getaway Car has had no answer to stablemate Gaming, finishing fourth behind him in both the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Sandwiched between those two starts was a second place finish behind stablemate Citizen Bull, who is not in this field, in the American Pharoah (G1). Regular rider Juan Hernandez retains the mount. Exotics. |
4. Rank (15-1) |
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Still a maiden after five starts, Rank has seen the tail end of Gaming, Getaway Car and Journalism. On a positive note, the Doug O’Neill trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings have risen in each start, topping out at 92. Rank’s sire is the gorgeous Honor A.P., winner of the 2020 Santa Anita Derby (G1) and ranked 15th on the first-crop sire list. Rank’s dam is a multiple stakes-placed turf miler, and Rank’s half-sister Scent of Success and half-brother Big Falcon Rocket are stakes-placed sprinter-milers. The third generation of Rank’s distaff line includes the 2021 Starlet (G1) heroine Eda. Rank is a large, muscular horse with high knee action and runs with his head up. Pass. |
Trained by Doug O’Neill, Rank is still a maiden after five starts but does have three runner-up finishes. He has previously finished fourth behind Getaway Car, second and sixth behind Gaming and second to Journalism. His biggest defeat was finishing sixth by 13 lengths in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and his most recent two starts were in mid-level maiden events. Regular rider Antonio Fresu has the return call. Pass. |
5. Journalism (6-1) |
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Journalism phoned in a workmanlike victory in his second start. After tracking the pace, the Mike McCarthy trainee gained ground on the outside despite switching leads late. His gait smoothed out after passing the tiring leaders, and he galloped under the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Rank and six lengths in front of Mellencamp. Journalism completed a mile in 1:23.84 with a sharp 12.65-second final furlong. He earned a 95 Brisnet rating and a sharp 101 late-pace figure. Sold for $825,000 at last year’s Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling sale, Curlin’s son is the first foal out of the competitive Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, a Grade 2-winning miler who is multiple Grade 1-placed from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles against the likes of Midnight Bisou, Unique Bella and Abel Tasman. Journalism has classic distance breeding, and his off-the-pace style suits this race. Contender. |
Trained by Mike McCarthy, Journalism was third on debut in a 6-furlong, mid-level maiden event at Santa Anita that included Mellencamp as the runner-up. Journalism bounced back to win at second asking in the same Nov. 17 race from which Rank also exited. In the last five years, according to Race Lens, McCarthy has 12% winners with a 46% in-the-money clip in graded stakes for juveniles. In 2024, he is 3: 1-1-0 under the same conditions. Umberto Rispoli, who was aboard in Journalism’s debut, reunites with the colt. Exotics. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: All except one Los Alamitos Futurity victor hit the top three spots in their previous race, and ten were winners.
Pace pressers are the most successful, and only two favorites didn’t hit the board. However, the last favorite to win was Improbable (2018).
Since 2009, Two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runners-up, Lookin at Lucky (2009) and Solomini (2017), crossed the Los Alamitos Futurity line first, but Solomini was disqualified and placed third.
This year’s edition of the Los Alamitos Futurity looks like Gaming’s race to lose. If Getaway Car reverts to his pacesetting style, Juan Hernandez could keep things cool on the front end and pull an upset.
Journalism could improve in his third start off the layoff and post an upset.
Ashley: Bob Baffert’s trio of Gaming, Mellencamp, and Getaway Car will predictably be the ones doing the early legwork. Getaway Car does his best work on the lead, so Hernandez will likely hustle the colt out of the gate and then try to set a reasonable pace in order to milk the colt’s speed for as long as possible.
None in this field have won at the Futurity distance of 1 1/16 miles, but both Gaming and Getaway Car are Grade 1-placed going that distance.
Like Laurie, I think this is Gaming’s race to lose. I think Getaway Car once again falls short with Journalism getting into the mix. Mellencamp could surprise with first time blinkers-off, but I do like Journalism better.
Selections
Laurie |
Ashley |
1. Gaming (2-5) |
1. Gaming (2-5) |
5. Journalism (6-1) |
3. Getaway Car (3-1) |
3. Getaway Car (3-1) |
5. Journalism (6-1) |
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