Laurie
Ashley
1. Doc Sullivan (12-1)
Doc Sullivan leaps into Grade 1 company despite being a solid performer against New York statebreds. He closed in the 1 1/8-mile Albany Stakes, missing by a length to his nemesis Pandagate, who has bested Doc Sullivan all three times they met. The Michael Miceli trainee has positive qualities; he was never out of the money in nine career starts and earned Brisnet speed ratings in the mid-90’s in his last five races. He’s also posted a trio of triple-digit late-pace figures, including a 107 in his previous start, the highest in the Pennsylvania Derby field. Doc Sullivan has tactical speed, and it isn’t farfetched to think he can earn a paycheck. Exotics.
Trained by Michael Miceli, Doc Sullivan has never been out of the trifecta in his career, though as Laurie noted, he has raced nearly exclusively in New York-bred company. Doc Sullivan enters off two straight losses to Pandagate, though he did earn a career-high 100 Equibase speed figure two starts back in the $159,000 New York Derby. Miceli is winless with a 33 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, per Race Lens, and has never saddled a graded stakes winner. Jose Ortiz takes over for the injured Javier Castellano. Pass.
2. Seize the Grey (5-1)
Seize the Grey has had a long campaign this year, starting seven times, twice in May, all against Grade 1 and Grade 2 company. Although the highlight of his career was a front-running victory in the Preakness (G1) over a muddy track, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee hasn’t fared well at distances beyond 1 1/16 miles. The pretty gray colt had a mini vacation in August and a steady string of 5 furlong works, including a pre-race one in 59.20 seconds. However, he’s had a declining form after two brilliant victories in the Pat Day Mile and Preakness, and before that, his form was inconsistent. I’m going to Pass.
Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Seize the Grey enters off two straight losses: a seventh in the Belmont (G1) and fourth in the Jim Dandy (G2). He lost those two races by a combined 24 3/4 lengths. Prior to that he won the Pat Day Mile (G2) and the Preakness (G1). While Seize the Grey is arguably the class of the field, he is showing typical Lukas form. In other words, he ran well at the beginning of the year but his form has declined after a grueling campaign. Regular rider Jaime Torres has the call. Pass.
3. Lonesome Boy (20-1)
Despite being one of a trio of contenders with multiple starts at Parx, Lonesome Boy has lost his last three starts by more than 28 lengths. He’s happiest when splashing around over off tracks, but he won’t get that today. Pass.
Trained by Hugo Padilla, Lonesome Boy is a local runner with a 9: 2-2-2 record at Parx. He enters off a fifth place finish in the $75,000 Salvatore M. DeBunda Sprint and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since taking the $75,000 City of Brotherly Love Stakes back in March. Padilla has never saddled a graded stakes winner. Adam Bowman, who also has never had a graded stakes victory, retains the mount. Pass.
4. Timeout (10-1)
A royally-bred Claiborne Farm homebred, Timeout is a late bloomer brought along patiently by Bill Mott. After graduating in his third start, stretching to 1 1/8 miles, Curlin’s son took on winners in the Curlin Stakes. He made a nice middle move along the rail, but was physically and mentally tired, finishing a one-paced third, beaten four lengths by Unmatched Wisdom. Timeout had a wide trip at 1 1/8 miles in his last start against allowance types. He fought down the lane and had every chance to go by the winner, Game Warden, but stayed a half-length behind. Timeout has been keeping company with the likes of Arthur’s Ride and Rocket Can in the mornings. A big, long-striding colt, Timeout is a steady, one-paced grinder, typical of many runners from the Smart Strike line. Distance is his friend. With plenty of speed in the race, Timeout has an outsider’s chance to surprise. Contender.
Trained by Bill Mott, Timeout only debuted in April. He’s never been out of the trifecta in five career starts, but he only has one win to his name. Two starts back Timeout finished third behind Unmatched Wisdom in the $135,000 Curlin Stakes. He was most recently second in a high-level optional claimer. Bill Mott doesn’t place his charges all willy-nilly, so he must think Timeout has a shot here. Joel Rosario has the return call. Exotics.
5. Protective (8-1)
A late blooming son of Medaglia d’Oro out of Grade 1 heroine Grace Hall, Protective has been knocking at the door and hit the board in a pair of stakes while on the Triple Crown trail. The Todd Pletcher trainee finally found the winner’s circle in his last race against maidens going 1 1/4 miles in a contest originally scheduled for the turf. He bested three rivals, one of whom stumbled badly at the start, in a pedestrian time of 2:06.43, with a final quarter in 25.23 seconds. How good were his rivals? He beat the career maiden Elko County by 1 1/4 lengths. Pass.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Protective took seven starts to finally reach the winner’s circle, though as Laurie noted, he did finish third in both the Wood Memorial (G2) and the Peter Pan (G3). He also was sixth in the Belmont (G1). Irad Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard in three of the colt’s previous starts, picks the mount back up. Pass.
6. Just Step On It (15-1)
Just Step On It is a need-the-lead type who earned two of his three victories at Parx. He’s traded punches with Lonesome Boy, each winning a race, and in his last start, out-gamed Uncle Heavy for second place in the 1 1/16 mile Smarty Jones Stakes. Although he’s game, a mile may be the Louis Linder, Jr. trainee’s limit. Pass.
Trained by Louis Linder, Jr., Just Step On It is another local runner with a 6: 2-1-0 record at Parx. Two starts back, Just Step On It ran a surprising fourth in the Haskell (G1) and was most recently second in the $200,000 Smarty Jones Stakes here at Parx. Linder, Jr. has never saddled a graded stakes winner though he is multiple graded stakes placed. Jose Lezcano, who was aboard in the Smarty Jones, has the return call. Pass.
7. Dragoon Guard (9-5)
Other than losing his debut by a neck, Dragoon Guard has risen in the ranks to capture a pair of Derbies, the Indiana and West Virginia, both Grade 3 events. The Brad Cox trainee completed the 1 1/8 mile in the West Virginia Derby in 1:49.96 and got his final furlong in a sharp 12.61 seconds. Arrogate’s pretty gray son is out of Grade 2-winning turf miler Filimbi, who upset 2014 champion grass mare Dayatthespa in the De La Rose Stakes. Dragoon Guard’s granddam is multiple Grade 1 heroine Flute, who captured the Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes. The Brad Cox trainee has a high cruising speed, hasn’t been tested in four of five career starts, and enters the Pennsylvania Derby heavily armed with speed. Let’s see if he can safeguard his four-race win streak. Contender.
Trained by Brad Cox, Dragoon Guard is a neck shy of being undefeated in five career starts. In his last two outings, the son of Arrogate won the Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3) easily. He earned a career-best 106 Equibase speed figure at Indianapolis and followed that up with a 105 at Mountaineer. He also received a 104 three starts back in a high-level optional claimer at Churchill Downs. All four of his wins have come at different tracks, making him a strong road warrior. Regular rider Florent Geroux has the return call. Contender.
8. Unmatched Wisdom (8-1)
Everything went wrong in the Travers Stakes (G1) for Unmatched Wisdom. First, he bumped twice at the start with Corporate Power. Then, throwing caution to the wind and accustomed to being on the lead, Unmatched Wisdom wanted to run with the passing Fierceness and argued with Jose Ortiz, who said, “Not yet.” To top off things that could go wrong and did, the Chad Brown trainee’s leg wrap unraveled from his right hind leg, trailing along like a piece of toilet paper. By this time, Unmatched Wisdom protected his sanity and checked in seventh, 18 lengths behind Fierceness. Previously, Cairo Prince’s son compiled a three-race win streak as a pacesetter/presser and bested Timeout by four lengths in the Curlin Stakes. Unmatched Wisdom drilled a pre-race 5 furlongs in 1:00.4. He drops in class, reunites with Flavien Prat, and will likely be allowed to command the pace. Contender.
Trained by Chad Brown, Unmatched Wisdom was undefeated until he tested the deep end of the pool in the Travers (G1). Sure, everything that could go wrong did go wrong, but a good colt overcomes that. And Laurie, if you think Dragoon Guard, let alone a host of other pacesetters, is going to let Unmatched Wisdom get away with an uncontested lead, then you’re thicker than molasses on a cold winter morning. This son of Cairo Prince does boast a field and career-high 107 Equibase speed figure. I’m not normally big on Brown trainees on the dirt, but Unmatched Wisdom seems promising. Flavien Prat reunites with the colt after Irad Ortiz, Jr. had the mount in the Travers (G1). Contender.
9. Who’s the King (20-1)
The late maturing son of Not This Time out of the hard-knocking multiple stakes winner Willet, Who’s the King broke through with a victory in his third start of 2024, dominating $50,000 maiden claimers at a mile at Gulfstream Park. The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee had trouble in three of his last four starts; he was rank twice when asked to settle off the pace and had to steady in his second-to-last race. Now, he faces tougher foes. Pass.
Trained by Saffie Joseph, J. Who’s the King can continue asking the question because it certainly isn’t him. It took six starts for the colt to find the winner’s circle, and he hasn’t found it again in his last four starts, losing those by a combined 47-lengths, including a 25 1/2-length drubbing last out in a starter race at Saratoga. Mike Smith takes over from Tyler Gaffalione and should be grateful that his other two mounts for Saffie, Jr. for the day stand a better chance of winning than Who’s the King does, so it won’t be a completely wasted trip east. Pass.
10. Uncle Heavy (12-1)
Uncle Heavy captured the 1 1/8 mile Withers (G3) over a muddy track last year, was totally outclassed in his next three starts, and held third position the entire way in the Smarty Jones Stakes. The Robert Ried, Jr. trainee has been bested by Seize the Grey, Protective, and Just Step On It. Pass.
Trained by Robert Reid, Jr., Uncle Heavy enters off a third-place finish in the $200,000 Smarty Jones here at Parx. The Withers (G3) winner hasn’t had his picture taken since February and was beaten by a combined 36 3/4 lengths in his last start. He’s finished behind Seize the Grey, Protective, and Just Step On It this year. Reid, Jr. is 12 percent with a 40 percent in the money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Regular rider Mychel Sanchez takes back over from Paco Lopez. Pass.
11. Stronghold (5-2)
Santa Anita Derby (G1) hero Stronghold finished a decent seventh in the Kentucky Derby while racing in a traffic jam. One and one-quarter miles is too far, but the Phil D’Amato trainee made a reasonable effort. After time off, Stronghold faced Dragoon Guard in the Indiana Derby. Stronghold was eager through the first turn, wanting to run, and was steadied while crowded on the rail. Stronghold found running room in the stretch and gained ground on Dragoon Guard. It was a reasonable effort for his first start off the layoff, and Ghostzapper’s son should improve with the extra distance. Stronghold has tactical speed but may get a wide trip, so Antonio Fresu may push him early to get a good stalking position. Exotics.
Trained by Philip D’Amato, Stronghold enters off a 2 ½-length defeat at the hooves of Dragoon Guard in the Indiana Derby (G3). It was a good effort off the mini-vacation he received after his seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). D’Amato is 13 percent with a 40 percent in the money clip with runners second off the layoff over the last year and 13 percent with a 38 percent in the money rate with runners coming off a 2-6 month layoff. Antonio Fresu travels east with the Ghostzapper colt in the effort to pick up Stronghold’s second grade one victory. Use underneath.
Photo: Justin Manning / Eclipse Sportswire A field of eight led by 8-5 morning-line favorite Hot Property was entered for the $250,0
Photo: National Association of Racing TV, Japan The Triple Crown Tracker checks in with the horses who raced in the 2024 Kentucky Derb
Photo: Rich Steele / Eclipse Sportswire Adding evidence to his case for an Eclipse Award, Sierra Leone earned the highest Brisnet Spee
After a series of placings in the nation’s top three-year-old stakes, Sierra Leone delivered in a big way Nov. 2. He posted a 1 ½-length victory over