Laurie

Ashley

1. Kale’s Angel (2-1)

After a pair of mediocre efforts on the lawn in California, Kale’s Angel informed his connections that he was a dirt horse with a 5 3/4 length judgment on rivals in the 5 1/2 furlong Advent Stakes. The Peter Miller trainee earned a 97 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest in the Smarty Jones field.

By fourth-ranked first-crop sire Complexity, Kale’s Angel is out of Love Affair, an unraced Malibu Moon mare. Love Affair’s half-brother is Ready to Repeat, a Grade 1-placed juvenile in Canada. Their dam, Christine Daae, is a stakes-placed sprinter who won up to 1 1/8 miles.  

So far, Complexity’s offspring are distance-challenged. Race Lens shows that he has one winner at a mile from 20 starters and one of seven placed third at 1 1/16 miles. However, Kale’s Angel has plenty of stamina from damsire Malibu Moon and second damsire, Giant’s Causeway. Kale’s Angel can save ground on the rail but must prove that he can do what 19 other foals by Complexity couldn’t do. Exotics.

Trained by Peter Miller, Kale’s Angel began his career on the lawn in California, compiling record of 4: 1-0-0 on that surface. The colt managed to find trouble in three of those starts, including when finishing fourth in the Zuma Beach (G3) by 3 1/4 lengths and eleventh in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance by 5 3/4 lengths. Miller shipped Kale’s Angel to Oaklawn for his fifth start and tried him on dirt for the first time. The result was a resounding 5 3/4 length victory in the Advent Stakes. He received a career and field high 109 Equibase speed figure for his effort. Over the past year, Miller is a 9% winner with a 44% in-the-money rate with runners stretching out from a sprint to a route. He’s also just 5% wins with a 37% in the money clip in stakes races during that same time frame, per Race Lens. Ramon Vazquez, who was Kale’s Angel’s fifth jockey in as many starts, gets the return call off their Advent victory. Exotics.

2. Hot Gunner (20-1)

After graduating at first asking at Lone Star, Hot Gunner has struggled against runners at Prairie Meadows and Remington Park. The Scott Young trainee’s Brisnet ratings are the lowest in the Smarty Jones field.

Exaggerator’s son is out of the winning Flatter mare You Flatter Me. Her half-sister, Just Read It, is a stakes-winning sprinter. The family includes multiple graded winning sprinter-miler Venetian Harbor, and Hot Gunner’s fifth dam is 1989 Champion Sprinter Safely Kept.

Hot Gunner hasn’t shown the ability to compete with this group. Pass.

Trained by Scott Young, Hot Gunner was a debut winner traveling 5 1/2 furlongs at Lone Star Park back in July. Since then the gelded son of Exaggerator has not visited the winner’s circle again though he did nab a pair of third-place finishes in the Prairie Meadows Freshman Stakes and a non-winners of two allowance. Hot Gunner’s best Equibase speed figure is a 73 that he earned when finishing fourth in a different non-winners of two allowance. Young is 16% wins with a 28% in the money clip across all stakes races over the past year, per Race Lens. Harry Hernandez takes over from Floyd Wethey Jr. Pass.

3. Optical (12-1)

Optical got the job done in his fourth start after switching back to dirt. He was squeezed, was body slammed, then twice had to steady hard in his next start, the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), so James Graham wisely eased the colt and called it a day. In his last start before the Smarty Jones, Optical stayed in the clear on the outside. He came in and bumped slightly in the stretch, which unfocused him slightly before getting back on track. The Keith Desormeaux trainee gutted out a three-way decision by a bare head over Thorpedo Anna’s half-brother McAfee and Moral. McAfee is headed to New York’s Jerome Stakes.

Optical completed a mile in a decent 1:35.66 with a 12.82 final furlong, which earned him an 84 Brisnet speed rating. 

By City of Light, Optical is out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare Espressoandacheck. His second dam, Daring Dancer, is a multiple-graded turf miler. The extended female family includes multiple Grade 1 winning turf router Ticker Tape and many European Group 1 winners.

Optical should love the extra distance, and his tactical speed and tenacious manner make him a live long shot.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, it took Optical four attempts to break his maiden. He was fourth in his debut on dirt before then running eighth and fourth on the turf in his second and third starts. In his fourth start, jockey James Graham put the colt on the lead and that was all she wrote. Optical scampered off to a 14-length victory in that mile affair on dirt. That race, which had a field of 11, has produced just two winners; both dropped into the maiden claiming ranks with one switching to turf before getting their picture taken. Optical made his stakes debut in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) but was pulled up and walked off midway through the race. In his most recent two starts, Optical faced starter company, running third and then winning his Smarty Jones tune up. Desormeaux is just 7% wins with a 29% in the money rate in stakes races over the past year, per Race Lens. Axel Concepcion, who was aboard in Optical’s last race, has the return call. Pass.

4. Bon Temps (30-1)

Bon Temps stretches out after two unsuccessful sprints against maidens. His last start wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper. Bon Temps stumbled at the start, which left him 8 1/4 lengths behind. He made a sustained drive, made up ground and finished fourth with interest. Wayne Lukas gave Bon Temps a sharp pre-race five-furlong bullet in 59.8 seconds.

Bravazo’s son is out of the hard-knocking multiple stakes-winning sprinter Winning Image. Bon Temps is half to stakes-placed sprinters Dark Timber and Foreign Protocol. His extended pedigree includes Kentucky Oaks-winning half-sisters Quaze Quilt and Susan’s Girl. The latter bore multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Copelan.

Bon Temps is bred to love two turns. He returns in only 14 days, but I liked the way he was just getting started in the stretch of his last race. Also, Wayne Lukas is sneaky. Worth a look for long shot exotics bomb.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Bon Temps enters as a maiden, losing his two career starts by a combined 18 1/2 lengths. The winner of Bon Temps’s debut race, Donut God, doubled down with a next out victory in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs but is the only runner from that field to land a victory. Bon Temps made his second start on December 21, meaning that none from that field have made subsequent starts and Bon Temps will be racing on a two week turnaround. In the last year, Lukas is 11% wins with a 33% in the money clip with runners racing off an 8-30 day layoff, according to Race Lens. Martin Garcia will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts when he gets the leg up on Saturday. Pass.

5. Mo Quality (5-1)

Mo Quality couldn’t make it look any easier when he graduated in his second start. Racing on the outside, he flanked the pacesetters, loomed large around the turn between horses, and opened up to win by 1 1/2 lengths in a professional effort. The Christopher Davis trainee traveled 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:16.14 with a 6.28 final half-furlong. He earned a 90 Brisnet rating and a 91 late pace figure. Mo Quality has a consistent breeze pattern of four furlongs in the 49.0-second range over Turfway’s Tapeta surface.

Mo Town’s son is out of the Quality Road mare, Revealing Quality. Mo Quality’s second dam is a full sister to Grade 1-winning router Belle Gallantey, and his fifth dam, Meadow Star, was champion 2-year-old filly and the third dam of Arrogate.

The $250,000 question is, what did Mo Quality beat? Eight of ten rivals returned, with two placing third in their next start. Mo Quality showed tactical speed in his two starts and is worth a look for the exotics.

Trained by Christopher Davis, Mo Quality was second on debut before doing one better in his second start. In his debut at Keeneland, Mo Quality hung out at the very back of the field of eleven before launching a sustained rally that nabbed him runner-up honors without being a threat to the winner. Aside from Mo Quality, just one other starter from that field returned a winner. In Mo Quality’s next start, Junior Alvarado got the colt out of the gate quickly and up to contest the pace. Turning for home, Mo Quality struck the front and pulled away to win by 1 1/2 lengths. So far, none from that field have become winners. In the past year, Davis is 23% winners with a 38% in the money rate in stakes races, per Race Lens. Alvarado gets the return call. Exotics.

6. Hot Property (8-5)

Hot Property set leisurely opening quarters while relaxing on the lead despite being pressed. He put away his rival in the stretch but became unfocused, not wanting to separate from his foe, and started going up and down instead of forward. After encouragement from Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. to get his mind back into the game, Hot Property lengthened stride and opened up by 3 3/4 lengths. The Brad Cox trainee completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.27 with a 6.25 final half-furlong, earning an 87 Brisnet rating and a 100 late-pace figure, the highest in the Smarty Jones field.

Medaglia d’Oro’s son is out of Milwaukee Appeal, a multiple stakes winner and multiple Grade 1 placed from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Hot Property’s half-sister Actress is a multiple-graded winner at 1 1/8 miles. She bore multiple graded router, Hit Show, who had a three-race win streak in last year’s West Virginia Governor’s Stakes (G3), Lukas Classic (G2) and Fayette (G2).

Hot Property bested a promising herd of youngsters. Four of six rivals returned and yielded two winners. Hot Property is shipping and facing battle-tested foes, but we must respect the Cox/Prat connections. Exotics.

Trained by Brad Cox, Hot Property debuted a winner in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Fair Grounds. The colt broke sharply, went right up to set the pace and took the field gate to wire. Runner up Seattle Road flattered Hot Property with a next out victory, and sixth place finisher Consecrated ran second next out before visiting the winner’s circle in his subsequent start. Flavien Prat replaces Marcelino Pedroza Jr. Contender.

7. Curvino (12-1)

After a string of in-the-money finishes, Curvino finally got the job done in his last race. Was it the drop to maiden claimers, the sloppy track, added distance, or getting away from the likes of multiple Grade 1 placed McKinzie Street, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner up Iron Man Cal, and Los Alamitos Futurity victor Journalism? Maybe a combination. Curvino fought between horses in the stretch and found another gear when he saw fast-closing rivals on his outside. You could see the wheels turning in his mind with an “I got this” attitude. The Peter Miller trainee earned an average 82 Brisnet rating with an 88 late pace figure, on par with previous efforts.

Vino Rosso’s son is out of the unraced Special Rate mare, Queenie’s Pride. Curvino’s half-sister is multiple stakes-winning sprinter, Joy’s Rocket and half-brother Zipy are stakes placed turf milers.

Curvino may evolve into a quality colt, but today isn’t that day. Pass.

Trained by Peter Miller, Curvino took seven attempts to finally visit the winner’s circle. During that span, the colt went 3: 0-0-2 on dirt and 3: 0-1-1 on turf. Like Laurie pointed out, Curvino faced some tough company in those races which also included grade three placed Mischief River. It goes without saying that Curvino beat a field of career maidens when dropping down into the claiming ranks to finally get his first win, but it was a high priced claiming race. Francisco Arrieta retains the mount from the colt’s previous start. Pass.

8. Coal Battle (9-2)

Dismiss two failed efforts on the lawn, and Coal Battle is undefeated twice against stakes competition. Sounds good, right? However, the victories were against Evangeline, Delta Downs and Remington Park foes. To his credit, Coal Battle bested the previously undefeated stakes winner Jolly Samurai and multiple stakes winner Mister Omaha in the Remington Springboard Mile, earning a 92 Brisnet rating and 92 late pace figure, the second-highest in the Smarty Jones field.

Coal Front’s son is out of the stakes-placed sprinter Wolfblade. The first three generations of this female family contain restricted/listed class sprinters, plus Grade 3 winner Easy Time.

The Lonnie Briley trainee flashed good gate speed in the Springboard Mile but was taken off the pace. He was green down the stretch, turning his head away from foes and racing on his left lead, but found another gear when transitioning late to his right lead. Contender. 

Trained by Lonnie Briley, Coal Battle is undefeated on dirt with two off-the-board finishes on turf. The colt debuted a winner in a five furlong, off the turf sprint at Evangeline Downs. Since he was originally slated for the lawn, Briley entered him in two turf races before throwing in the proverbial towel and switching Coal Battle back to dirt. The result? Back-to-back wins in the Jean Lafitte and Remington Springboard Mile. While Coal Battle’s stakes wins have been at smaller tracks, his earlier races have proved noteworthy. Coal Battle’s debut race produced one winner and a state bred stakes placed runner. The Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile, Coal Battle’s second start and first turf attempt, produced multiple graded stakes placed dirt runner Tiztastic, and his second turf start produced Remsen (G2) hero Poster. Briley is 18% wins with a 36% in the money rate in stakes races over the past year. Regular jockey Juan Vargas has the call. Contender.

                Laurie

           Ashley

Optical (12-1)

Coal Battle (9-2)

Hot Property (8-5)

Hot Property (8-5)

Mo Quality (5-1)

Mo Quality (5-1)

Coal Battle (9-2)

Kale’s Angel (2-1)