Saturday’s $200,000 Grade 2 San Vicente
Stakes at Santa Anita attracted a short but talented field of five. Bob
Baffert, the face of California racing, sends out two stylish maiden winners to
butt heads with Mike McCarthy’s undefeated Bob Hope (G3) winner Bullard.
The seven-furlong event carries
no qualifying points for Kentucky Derby 2025. Still, it continues to be a
traditional start for California’s Derby hopefuls to ease back
into racing and prep for longer races.
Many of the past San Vicente
winners went on to become familiar faces on the Triple Crown trail, and 2016
Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist kicked off his 3-year-old campaign with a win
in this race.
The San Vicente is spotlighted as
race five on Saturday’s 10-race program. Post time is slated for 4:33 p.m. EST.
Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power review the field’s past performances,
pedigrees, works, etc. and break it all down to give you who we believe has a
shot at nabbing their first graded victory of the year.
LAURIE
|
ASHLEY
|
1. McKinzie
Street (10-1)
|
McKinzie Street is multiple Grade 1-placed, but he’s lost
ground in his last two starts, the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) and the
seven-furlong Bob Hope, where he checked in 7 1/2 lengths behind Bullard
after contesting a quick pace. The Tim Yakteen trainee’s Brisnet ratings are
going the wrong way, and his 69 late-pace figure is the lowest in the San
Vicente. McKinzie Street is by multiple Grade 1 hero McKinzie, who
is no. 2 on the First-Crop sire list. He is the first foal out of the unraced
Tale of the Cat mare Karpathos, a half-sister to precocious Graded winner and
sire Katharos. McKinzie Street has experience and faces a trio of
last-out maiden winners. But he must improve his form to have a shot. Pass.
|
Trained by Tim Yakteen, McKinzie Street debuted a winner
in a mid-level maiden event at Del Mar. The colt took the field gate to wire
and defeated Smarty Jones entrant Curvino, a next-out winner and an eventual
turf winner. McKinzie Street then finished second in the Del Mar Futurity
(G1), third in the American Pharoah (G1), and third in the Bob Hope, 7
1/2 lengths behind fellow entrant Bullard. McKinzie Street posted a career-high
100 Equibase speed figure in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1), missing
the win by 1 3/4 lengths. Antonio Fresu replaces regular jockey Kazushi
Kimura. Contender.
|
2. Barnes (8-5)
|
A $3.2 million yearling purchase, Barnes was green in the
Churchill stretch in his debut, drifting in the stretch in response to the
crop while on his left lead. He paddles with his left foreleg. Barnes
captured the 5 1/2-furlong maiden event by a bare head, and his rival Innovator was eventually a distant second to Kale’s Angel in the Advent
Stakes, so the class of the maiden race is suspect. Kale’s
Angel is entered in the Smarty Jones Stakes. The Bob Baffert trainee earned
an 88 Brisnet speed rating. He had a six-furlong gate drill on Dec. 22 in
company with Romanesque, although that one breezed four furlongs. Barnes was
professional in his last couple of works, switching leads and staying in his
lane. Into Mischief’s son is the first foal out of the American
Pharoah mare All American Dream. The mare’s half-sister, Wind Fire, is a
multiple group-placed sprinter in Great Britain. Barnes’s third dam is
multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Dream Supreme, who bore Grade 1 winner and
sire Majestic Warrior. Barnes can improve off his maiden effort and should
improve with distance. Exotics.
|
Trained by Bob Baffert, Barnes, named for Baffert’s
longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes, was unveiled at Churchill Downs
the day before Thanksgiving. With Martin Garcia up, Barnes tracked the pace
while bottled up on the rail. As the field hit the top of the stretch, the
colt finally found some racing room and was set down for the drive. Despite
exhibiting greenness by drifting out in the stretch and racing on the wrong
lead, Barnes was able to wear down the leader to win the photo finish by a
head. He received a 98 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Runner-up
Innovator finished second in the Advent Stakes next out before breaking his maiden in his second start since this race. Third-place finisher
Sinister Smile also ran second in his next outing. J.J. Hernandez will
replace Garcia, who will be riding at Oaklawn this weekend. Contender.
|
3. Romanesque (5-1)
|
Romanesque graduated at first asking after dueling the
entire way in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event with stablemate Rodriguez. He
galloped under the wire 2 1/4 lengths in front and stopped the clock at 1:15.91 with a 6.45-second final half-furlong. The effort earned him a 93 speed
rating, and his 97 late-pace figure is the highest in the San Vicente
field. Practical Joke’s son is out of the winning Alphabet Soup
mare Mony’slittlegracie. Only two of her six foals are winners, but her
stakes-winning full sister bore two stakes-winning turf milers and a
half-sister produced Grade 3-winning turf router Regalo Mio. A $435,000 yearling, Romanesque was professional in his
debut and appears the strongest of the Baffert charges. Contender.
|
Also from the Bob Baffert barn,
Romanesque debuted a winner in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Del Mar. The
son of Practical Joke raced along the rail as part of a trio before he and
stablemate Rodriguez began to draw off from their rivals. The Baffert pair
hit the stretch together and battled for the win, with Romanesque putting
away Rodriguez late to win by 2 1/4 lengths. So far, only two from that field
have made subsequent starts, with one of those being a next-out winner. Mike
Smith will replace Hernandez, who will be aboard Barnes instead. Smith has
been on a cold streak, going winless since Nov. 3 when he won a claiming
race at Del Mar. He has frequently landed in the money, including piloting
Atitlan to a third-place finish in the Mathis Mile (G2) and Sumter to a
runner-up finish in the Joe Hernandez (G2) in the last week. Exotics.
|
4. Smooth
Cruisein (12-1)
|
Smooth Cruisein broke slow in his debut and was all over
the place in the stretch in response to the crop. Despite the setbacks, he
was on “go” the entire way and didn’t quit, cruising under the wire a half-length in front. The Karen Headley trainee completed
six furlongs in 1:10.71 with a 12.98-second final furlong, and he recorded an 89 speed
rating. Smooth Cruisein bested Journalism, who later captured the Los
Alamitos Futurity (G2). Girvin’s son is out of the winning In Summation mare
Smooth Cookie. The mare’s half-brother Mr Chocolate Chip is Grade 3-placed,
and the second dam is a stakes-winning turf miler. Smooth Cruisein has Rasmussen
factor inbreeding to 1982 Champion
Sprinter Gold Beauty through her daughter Maplejinsky, second dam of Tale of
Ekati, Girvin’s sire, and England’s horse of the year Dayjur, In Summation’s damsire. Smooth Cruisein returns after a 61-day layoff, but he’s had a steady work regimen of five- and six-furlong breezes since
November. Live long shot.
|
Trained by Karen Headley, Smooth Cruisein debuted a
winner at Santa Anita in October. With Ricardo Gonzalez in the irons,
Smooth Cruisein was off slowly but tugged his way into a nice striking position
just off the early pace. As the field hit the stretch, Smooth Cruisein put in
a relentless rally that saw him grind his way to a half-length win as the
22-1 longest shot on the board. Third-place finisher Journalism won his next
two starts, including the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). According to Race Lens,
Headley has not saddled any stakes starters in the past year and is winless,
with a 20% in-the-money rate in all stakes races in the last five years. She
has two career-graded stakes victories, both Grade 3s won by San Onofre
in 2016. Headley has sent out only four starters in five races since Smooth
Cruisein won his debut and did not hit the board with any of them. Gonzalez
retains the mount. Based on Headley’s stats, it would be easy to dismiss this
colt all altogether, but Smooth Cruisein has proven that he can
compete and win against Baffert’s runners. Live long shot.
|
5. Bullard (4-5)
|
Bullard is living up to his $675,000 yearling
purchase. The only graded winner in the field, Mike McCarthy’s charge made
short work of four rivals, including McKinzie
Street, in the Bob Hope. Although he was outrun through sizzling
early fractions, Bullard circled the field four-wide and breezed under the
wire 4 3/4 lengths in front, completing seven furlongs in 1:22.55 with a
12.96 final furlong. His Brisnet rating increased seven points to 99. Bullard
breezed four furlongs in 49.80 seconds on Dec. 19 in company with the older maiden
winner Invigorated. In the beginning, Bullard was relaxed, bounding along
with good energy and his ears up despite a tight hold by the rider. Once Bullard
switched leads in the stretch, it was business time. His ears flattened, and
he pulled slightly ahead of his mate. The ears went back up after the wire. Bullard
had the same demeanor in other breezes. Gun Runner’s
son is out of the unraced Warrior’s Reward mare Reve d’Amour. His half-sister
Mundaye is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and she set a track record
of 1:21.17 for seven furlongs at Ellis Park in 2020 in the Audubon Oaks.
Bullard’s female family is anchored by his third and fourth dams, Blush With
Pride and Best in Show. He hails from the same family as Belmont Stakes
winners Arcangelo, Rags to Riches and Jazil. A one-run
closer, Bullard was aided by swift early fractions in both starts. Win
contender.
|
Trained by Mike McCarthy, Bullard is undefeated in two
starts, including an emphatic 4 3/4-length victory in the Bob Hope over
fellow entrant McKinzie Street, who finished third. Bullard received a career
and field-high 105 Equibase speed figure for the Bob Hope (G3). Two from
Bullard’s debut race were next-out winners, with another two eventually
becoming winners. Bob Hope runner-up Madaket, who debuted in the Bob
Hope, was a next-out winner. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli retains the
mount. Contender.
|
Final thoughts
Ashley: Normally, in a field this small, there’s
one, maybe two, standouts with several filler runners. Not so here. I feel like
I could make a convincing case for any one of these five colts.
Race Lens has
Barnes pegged as the lone speed of the field. I disagree with that assessment. In
his debut, Barnes showed excellent speed from the gate but then settled behind
the pace setters after being put in tight quarters along the rail. This is a
smaller field than he faced at Churchill Downs, so I do not anticipate
traffic trouble slowing him down. But I think McKinzie Street to his inside
will go with him. The Yakteen colt set the pace in his lone win, and a return
to that style could see him back in the winner’s circle.
Smooth Cruisein
and Bullard will be at a disadvantage with their one-run styles. However, they both have overcome that in fields this small. Neither comes from out of the
clouds, so there’s little fear of them losing touch with their rivals early on.
Additionally, Bullard easily won the Bob Hope in a visually pleasing
effort.
Bullard looks like
he will relish longer distances, but there’s no denying he excels at sprinting.
He has the best speed figure in the field, which he earned at the San Vicente
distance. It’s not often that I pick against Baffert, but I’m doing
so here.
Laurie:
Ten of
the last 15 San Vicente winners placed fourth or better in their
previous race. Eight favorites won, and only one didn’t finish in the top four. All
but two winners had two or more races under their girths. Bob Baffert
conditioned the two who won the San Vicente after their winning debut.
Pace pressers and setters
dominate, with two closers prevailing in the last 15 years.
J.J. Hernandez won the last three
editions of the San Vicente, two with Baffert.
I agree with Ashley that anyone could
win. The three mystery horses, Barnes, Romanesque and Smooth Cruisein, could
either step up or regress.
Barnes is intense and all business
during morning works. He’s more relaxed while on the rail and while on the lead
and can be slightly rank when asked to sit off stablemates in the morning. Barnes
has faster leg action and is more muscular than Romanesque, built like a
powerhouse miler, and Romanesque is a larger, longer-striding horse.
On paper, Bullard appears up
against it as there doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed in the race to set up
his late kick. Yet two of the last three San Vicente winners prepped in the Bob
Hope, and Bullard is the only stakes winner in the field.
Comparing the demeanors of
Bullard and Barnes, Bullard is more tractable and willing to relax until asked,
and he stubbornly keeps his head in front. Bullard is intense, ears flat and always
on the bridle. This competitive attitude can waste energy, yet it shows other
horses that Barnes is all business.
I agree with Ashley that Bullard
is the one to beat, but it’s a tough call between him and Barnes.
Selections
Ashley
|
Laurie
|
5. Bullard (4-5)
|
5. Bullard (4-5)
|
2. Barnes (8-5)
|
2. Barnes (8-5)
|
1. McKinzie Street (10-1)
|
3. Romanesque (5-1)
|
|
|