Laurie

Ashley

1. American Promise (12-1)

American Promise is a need-the-lead type, so the rail is
a good spot for him. He has won over a sloppy track, and his pedigree
suggests that he should love 1 1/8 miles. But he was a speed-fade type
in six of seven starts. He lost all chance in the Southwest (G3) when he was off
slow and lost his speed advantage. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee’s Brisnet ratings
are firmly stuck in the 80s, except for his maiden victory, when he earned a
92. Justify’s son is out of the winning Tapit mare, Tapella, and he is half
to Grade 2 heroine Hoosier Philly, who won stakes from a mile to 1 1/16 miles
and was second in the 1 1/8 mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2). Their dam’s
half-sister, Ulele, also placed in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). American
Promise has speed to his outside. He could steal the Risen Star if left alone
on the pace, but East Avenue and Magnitude might not let that happen. Traditionally,
horses exiting the inside post don’t fare well in the Risen Star. Exotics.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, American Promise broke his
maiden in his sixth start to close out his juvenile year. The colt crossed
the wire sixth in his seasonal bow in the Southwest (G3) but was disqualified
to seventh after forcing Publisher into the rail. American Promise does own a
field-high 102 Equibase speed figure from his sole victory, but he was
already fading in the Southwest when he caused the interference. Keith
Asmussen takes over from Tyler Bacon. Pass.

2. Jonathan’s Way (4-1)

Jonathan’s Way showed he wasn’t a front-running, one-trick
pony when he made a sustained drive in the Kentucky Jockey Club to finish a
solid second. His beaten rivals, Tiztastic and Render Judgement, returned to
place third in the Southwest and Gun Runner Stakes, respectively. The Philip
Bauer trainee has been training regularly at Fair Grounds and owns a
second-to-last bullet five furlongs in 1:00.20.

Jonathan’s Way’s pedigree suggests 1 1/8 miles is within
his scope with the right setup. Leading Second Crop sire, Vekoma captured the
Blue Grass Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. But Jonathan’s Way’s immediate family
is speed-oriented. He is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Female Drama, and
his half-brother Startdfromdabottom is a multiple restricted stakes-placed
sprinter. The black type in the second generation of this family is mainly
South American. Jonathan’s Way has encountered an off-track, and his sire has
37% winners over the mud, and his siblings have won on the
surface. Jonathan’s Way might need a start, but he is worth an exotics
placing.

Trained by Philip Bauer, the only time Jonathan’s Way
failed to make the exacta was when he was seventh in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile. The Iroquois (G3) hero finished his juvenile year with a
second-place effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Third-place finisher
Tiztastic was third in the Southwest (G3), and fifth-place finisher
Render Judgment ran back third in the Gun Runner Stakes. Bauer is 33% wins
with a 50% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a two- to six-month
layoff over the last year, according to Race Lens. Jose Ortiz takes over from regular
rider Joel Rosario, who will be riding at Gulfstream Park. I’m on the fence
about this colt’s chances running 1 1/8 miles for the first time right off the
bench, but Owen Almighty, who was second to him in the Iroquois (G3), just
ran a game second, beaten by a half-length, in the Sam F. Davis last
weekend in his first try at 1 1/16 mile. Exotics.

3. Vassimo (8-1)

Undefeated in two starts, Vassimo ships to a new track,
tries a new surface, faces stakes types and adds distance. The class of his
rivals in his last couple of starts is suspect. One returned to beat maidens,
and that’s about it for both fields. In his debut, Vassimo posted a glacial
1:39.43 for a mile, with a 13.17-second final furlong. That earned him a solid 88 Brisnet Speed Rating. In the optional-claiming allowance start at Tampa, Vassimo traveled 1 mile 40 yards in 1:39.42. Although his
speed rating dropped a couple of points, his late-pace figure increased to a competitive
97. In the race at Tampa, Vassimo hesitated before passing the pacesetter,
then focused on moving forward. He wasn’t fully extended, as his ears went up
once Vassimo knew he conquered his rival. Nyquist’s son should love 1 1/8
miles. He is out of the multiple Grade 2 winner Bsharpsonata and is half to
three stakes-placed milers, two graded. In addition, a half-sister bore a
Grade 3 winner, and his dam is half to multiple graded-winning sprinter
Backtalk. Vassimo’s second dam is a stakes-winning turf miler. Race Lens
shows that Nyquist is an excellent mud sire with 48% in the money, and three
of Vassimo’s half-siblings have won or placed over the surface. Given his
family’s history, Vassimo may handle mud and has the pedigree to travel 1 1/8
miles. His speed ratings aren’t terrible, and Todd Pletcher has shipped
successfully from Gulfstream to win the Risen Star, though he last stood in the
winner’s circle in 2014. Have to respect the connections, and it’s time to
see what this well-bred colt can do. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Vassimo is perfect in two
starts. The Nyquist colt debuted a winner at Gulfstream Park, winning a mile
event by one length. He then won a 1 mile 40-yard event at Tampa Bay by 2 3/4
lengths to kick off 2025. The runner-up of Vassimo’s debut race won next out
at Oaklawn. Two from the colt’s second race have made subsequent starts, and
they both hit the board. This will be the colt’s third track but
first time racing outside Florida. Regular jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks with
him. Pletcher continues to be a top trainer of Kentucky Derby prospects,
winning at a 16% clip with a 46% in-the-money rate with 3-year-olds in graded
stakes on dirt over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Contender.

4. East Avenue (9-5)

East Avenue faceplanted at the start of the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile, leaving him near the back of the pack. Initially, he wasn’t a fan
of the kickback, as he was climbing and tossing his head. East Avenue had a
clear pathway along the rail, but mentally, he had had enough and checked in
ninth, 13 1/2 lengths out of it. East
Avenue is bred for classic distances. Medaglia d’Oro’s son is out of the
unraced Ghostzapper mare Dance Music, who is a half-sister to 2023 champion older dirt male and horse of the year Cody’s Wish. Dance Music’s full brother
Endorsed is a multiple-graded winning miler who placed twice at 1 1/8 miles.
Another full brother, Bocephus, is a stakes-winning miler and a stakes-placed
sprinter. East Avenue’s second dam Dance Card won the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle
Stakes (G1) and was third behind Groupie Doll and Judy the Beauty in the 2013
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. The Brendan Walsh trainee has a series
of five-furlong breezes at the Fair Grounds. If he’s matured, he could be
dangerous if left alone on the lead. Exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue was the post-time
favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off a previously unblemished record
but lost all chance when he stumbled badly at the start and relegated to the
back of the field rather than taking up his usual pace-setting position. The
Godolphin homebred won his first two starts, including the Breeders’ Futurity
(G1), by a combined 13 1/4 lengths. Gun Runner winner and Lecomte (G3)
runner-up Built exited East Avenue’s debut race, and Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
runner-up Ferocious was most recently fourth in the Holy Bull (G3) while not
being fully cranked for his best performance. The colt’s best Equibase speed
figure is the 99 he received in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Walsh is 9%
wins with a 32% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the past year and 16% with a 40% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a two- to six-month
layoff over the past year, according to Race Lens. Tyler Gaffalione has the return
call. Contender.

5. Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Chunk of Gold is the Risen Star wildcard and gets a shot
over a muddy track after two starts on Turfway’s Tapeta. In his debut, Chunk
of Gold overcame a slow break, had to check, made a wide spin around the turn and dueled a stubborn foe down the lane. The Ethan West trainee had similar
trouble in the Leonatus Stakes, breaking from the rail and steadying
back to last. Chunk of Gold was green down the lane but closed like a train
once he straightened out and received a sharp 102 late-pace figure. By Grade 1-winning router Preservationist, Chunk of Gold
is a full brother to last year’s Martha Washington Stakes heroine Band of
Gold, who won the 1 1/16-mile contest over a sloppy track. Their dam is a
half to multiple Grade 3 winner My Boy Jack, who was third in two starts
beyond 1 1/16 miles. Chunk of Gold overcame trouble in both starts, and he
runs like he would appreciate the long stretch at Fair Grounds. Live long shot.

Trained by Ethan West, Chunk of Gold debuted a winner at
Turfway Park in mid-December and followed that up with a runner-up effort in
the Leonatus Stakes, also at Turfway Park. The colt’s debut race has so far
produced one next-out winner. The Risen Star will be Chunk of Gold’s first
attempt on traditional dirt, and West is just 11% wins with a 38% in-the-money rate
with all-weather to dirt runners over the last five years. In that same time
frame, he’s 50% wins with a 100% in-the-money rate in graded stakes. But he sent out Runaway Storm to two starts, both on turf, and the gelding
brought home a check off double-digit odds. Abel Cedillo, who was up for
Chunk of Gold’s debut race, has the mount. Pass. 

6. Seattle Road (30-1)

Seattle Road didn’t have his closing kick in the Lecomte
and finished seventh. It was a typical regression after his first victory. A
late-maturing type, Seattle Road exhibited gradual improvement in each start, which paved his way to the winner’s circle in his fourth attempt against a
full field of maidens at the Fair Grounds, winning by a head. Seattle Road’s
pedigree suggests he should handle 1 1/8 miles. By Quality Road, Seattle Road
is out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare, Seattle Slang. His second dam, Seattle
Smooth, was a Grade 1 and multiple Grade 2 winner who was capable from
sprints to 1 1/8 miles.

Seattle Road is a one-run closer who has a shot of
earning a check if a speed duel develops, and he can bulldoze past tired
runners. But I’m not taking the road less traveled. Pass.

Trained by Thomas Amoss, Seattle Road improved in every
start but didn’t break his maiden until his fourth start. He beat a bunch of
several-start maidens and then finished seventh in the Lecomte last out.
Marcelino Pedroza Jr. retains the mount, and I don’t see this colt improving
off that effort after finishing behind about a third of this field in
previous starts. Pass.

7. Septarian (12-1)

Septarian returns from a distant third-place finish in
the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. The winner, Guns Loaded, fired a blank in the
Holy Bull (G3) after contesting the pace and more recently, runner-up Treaty
of Rome never got on track in the Sam F. Davis and finished a well-beaten
ninth. The Chad Brown trainee fired a pair of bullet four-furlong works at
Payson while in blinkers, including a second-to-last move in company with
Hopeful (G1) placed Incentive Pay. On the inside, Septarian turned his head to
keep track of his workmate. It was an average breeze, with both going up and
down as much as forward.  

By Protonico, best known as the sire of Medina Spirit, Septarian
is out of the unraced Amadeus Melody, a daughter of the Group 1-wining turf
sprinter Amadeus Wolf. Septarian’s distaff line is European, and his dam’s half-sister,
Molly Malone, is a French Group 1 turf router who beat the boys. Normally, I
would pass on Septarian. but there are positive notes. Septarian gets blinkers
for the first time and breezed two bullets in them. He’s making his second
start off the layoff and second for a high-percentage barn. Plus, I respect
the duo of Brown and Prat. Toss him into your exotics if playing the field,
but I’m going to pass.

Trained by Chad Brown, Septarian began his career
2-for-2 and finished third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in his first
attempt at a route. So far, the best the Mucho Macho Man field has
accomplished is a second in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes; runner-up Treaty
of Rome was most recently ninth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Septarian’s best
Equibase number is 82, but that dropped to 65 in the Mucho Macho Man. Brown
will add blinkers and is 30% wins with a 52% in-the-money rate with first-time
blinkers. Flavien Prat takes over from Tyler Gaffalione. Pass.

8. Giocoso (20-1)

Giocoso takes another shot at dirt despite two solid turf
victories. His speed ratings are in the solid 80s, and he could improve as a
3-year-old. Although he’s stretching out after a long layoff, the Keith Desormeaux
has a strong foundation plus several stamina works under his girth.

Giocoso has a solid turf-oriented pedigree. Although his
sire, Not This Time, won on dirt, his sire is the legendary iron horse,
Giant’s Causeway. Giocoso’s dam and half-sister were best over synthetic   and turf, and his distaff line’s second and third generations contain
international turf black type winners.

Despite the turfy family, Giocoso has a nice extension
when he runs and seems to get over the dirt just fine. Horses with
turf-oriented pedigrees often handle mud better than dry dirt. Not This Time’s
offspring hit the board 43% of the
time in mud. Even if he handles the
mud, Giocoso needs to step up in his first start off the layoff. Pass.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Giocoso has two career wins,
both on turf, from six starts. Giocoso debuted in the same race at Churchill
Downs as recent Sam F. Davis runner-up Owen Almighty before switching to the
turf for his next two starts. He finished a close second in his second race
before breaking his maiden in his third start. Desormeaux then put the colt
back on dirt for a third-place finish in the Iroquois (G3) behind winner
Jonathan’s Way and runner-up Owen Almighty. Giocoso then finished sixth in
the Bourbon Stakes (G2) before completing his juvenile year with a victory
in an allowance race on turf. Desormeaux is 18% winner with a 43% in-the-money rate with turf-to-dirt runners but just 7% with a 33% in-the-money rate
with runners entering off a two to six-month layoff. Jaime Torres gets the
return call from November’s allowance race. Pass.

9. Built (5-1)

Built showed tactical speed in the Lecomte after a runaway
score in the Gun Runner Stakes, although his Brisnet rating dropped a few
points between the two races. Built wasn’t as impressive as Disco Time in the
Lecomte, but he gradually gained ground in a one-paced style. By Hard Spun, Built is the first foal out of Curlin’s daughter Sea Garden, so he is constructed to handle classic distances. Both his sire
and damsire are noted for getting mudders. Sea Garden’s half-brother
Glenville Gardens is a Grade 2-winning turf sprinter in Canada. Built’s third
dam is Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley Vale, and the family includes Indian
Vale, a multiple Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles. Wayne Catalano gave Built a swift second-to-last
four-furlong breeze in 47.80, so he should be on his toes. Contender.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Built enters off a determined
runner-up finish in the Lecomte. The colt made a game bid up the inside
to overtake loose on the lead Innovator but was nailed in the final strides
by a fast-closing Disco Time. Prior to that, Built was the dominant winner of
the Gun Runner Stakes. In the Gun Runner, Built set the pace, and I believe
he was just a bit farther off the pace in the Lecomte than he would have
preferred. Luis Saez takes over from Jareth Loveberry. Contender.

10. Render Judgment (12-1)

Render Judgment scratched from the Southwest Stakes with a
foot problem and reappears for the Risen Star. Despite stumbling in the five-horse
Gun Runner Stakes, the Ken McPeek trainee ran an average third in a merry-go-round event.

After his troubled start, in the five-horse
Gun Runner, Rendered Judgment settled on the rail tailgating the pacesetter, Built,
and stayed there the entire way, with no answer when called on in the
stretch. He finished 9 1/2 lengths behind Built and 2 3/4
lengths behind Magnitude. Render Judgment was very close to the rail in the
Gun Runner, almost brushing it. His performances have earned him a shiny new
set of blinkers to help him focus.

By Blame, who has 48% of his progeny hitting the board in mud,
Render Judgment is the first foal out of a daughter of Commissioner. His
damsire was a multiple graded-winning router who placed in the 2014 Belmont
Stakes. Class in his distaff line skips to the third generation, including
Grade 1-winning turf miler Karelian and Queen’s Plate hero Basquwin. Render
Judgment’s speed ratings and overall record are average. This one-paced grinder
will need considerable improvement to be a threat. Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Render Judgment, who was third
in the Gun Runner Stakes to close out 2024, will rejoin the Fair Grounds road
to the Kentucky Derby after scratching from the Southwest. The son of Blame
stumbled at the start of the Gun Runner, but as a one-run type, that did not
take him out of his element. He ran decently after that but was never a
threat to Built and Magnitude. McPeek is 15% wins with a 38% in the money
rate with runners off a one- to two-month layoff. Regular rider Brian
Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Exotics.

11. Jolly Samurai (30-1)

Jolly Samurai was a big horse in a small pond at Remington
Park as a sprinter but hasn’t been a threat in his last two starts in deeper
water. The Danny Pish trainee’s speed ratings are in the low 80s. Jolly
Samurai’s pedigree indicates that he should handle distance, but his
performance indicates he’s best as a sprinter.

First Samurai has 46%
of his progeny hitting the board in mud. Three
of Jolly Samurai’s half-siblings won or placed on off tracks. Black type skips
to the second generation in his distaff line and includes graded-winning
sprinter-milers Change Up, her daughter Pinch Hit and second dam Round Robin.

Jolly Samurai is facing a stronger field than the Springboard
Mile and needs improvement to be a threat. Perhaps he can close for a minor
award, but I’ll pass.

Trained by Danny Pish, Jolly Samurai ripped off three
straight wins at Remington Park to begin his career, including victories in
the Kip Deville and Clever Trevor sprints. When the going got tough, however,
Jolly Samurai was not up to the task. He finished fifth in the Springboard
Mile to finish out 2024 and was most recently ninth in the Lecomte. Pish
continues to be winless in graded stakes over the last five years, and last
had a runner finish in the money in 2023, according to Race Lens. Regular rider Rene
Diaz retains the mount. Pass.

12. Vamos Carlitos (30-1)

Surprisingly, the well-bred Vamos Carlitos was tossed
into a $40,000 claiming race on dirt after a poor showing on the lawn. He
captured his debut over a wet-fast track at Horseshoe Indianapolis. After an
astute claim by Gregory Foley, Vamos Carlitos settled at the back of the pack
through soft early fractions, then closed like a freight train down the
Fair Grounds stretch. Unfortunately, the wire came too soon, and he missed
the victory by 3/4 length. He was bested by Admiral Dennis, who was
previously fourth in the Gun Runner Stakes after a tough trip. The race
yielded next-out winner Authentic Gallop. Vamos Carlitos earned a career-best
81 Brisnet rating, and his 106 late-pace figure ties with Jonathan’s Way for
the highest in the Risen Star. By Travers hero Catholic Boy, Vamos Carlitos
is out of the unraced Medaglia d’Oro mare Gabeira and has a classic distance
pedigree. Vamos Carlitos’s half-brother Erase is a stakes-winning miler on
Tapeta, and another half-brother is a stakes-placed sprinter. There’s plenty
of black type in Vamos Carlitos’s distaff line. His dam is half to Grade 1
winning miler Emcee, the dam of Grade 1 winner and sire Constitution, the
stakes-winning dam of Grade 3-winning turf router Marzo, and many more. There
may be a lively pace in the Risen Star, and Vamos Carlitos can settle near
the back of the pack, so the post won’t bother him. If Florent Geroux times
the ride right, Vamos Carlitos could post the upset. Live long shot.

Trained by Gregory Foley, Vamos Carlitos is 4: 2-0-0,
with his victories coming in a low-level maiden race at Indianapolis and a
claiming race at Churchill Downs. He enters off a runner-up finish to Admiral
Dennis in an optional claimer. Foley is 10% wins with a 38% in-the-money finish
in graded stakes in the last five years and last saddled a graded winner on
July 1, 2023, according to Race Lens. Florent Geroux takes over from Jose Ortiz. Pass.

13. Magnitude (12-1)

Every once in a while, Magnitude throws a clunker. That
happened both times against Grade 3 company. Coincidence? The Steve Asmussen
trainee’s Brisnet ratings are in the mid 80s, and his late pace figures are tepid.

By Not This Time, Magnitude is out of the Bernardini mare Rockadelic, so he should love 1 1/8 miles. But he and his three siblings
haven’t handled an off track. His second dam, Octave, captured the Mother
Goose and CCA Oaks, both Grade 1s, and among Octave’s many accomplishments,
she was second in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Magnitude may be used early to get position, and his
dismal effort on mud makes him a pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude chased Built all the
way around the track in the Gun Runner to finish 6 3/4 lengths behind that
one while also being clear of third-place finisher Render Judgment. The Not
This Time colt had a poor start in the Lecomte and ended up racing
farther back in the field than he would have liked. He ended up sixth, 2 3/4
lengths behind winner Disco Time. Drawing the far outside post is not going
to do Magnitude any favors here as jockey Ben Curtis is going to have to use
him early to secure the colt’s preferred early running style. Curtis
is 10% wins with a 40% in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the last
five years and just picked up his first and only victory in a graded stakes in
January when Recharge won the Houston Ladies Classic (G3), according to Race Lens. I
liked Magnitude in both the Gun Runner and the Lecomte (G3), but I’m not a
fan of his Risen Star post nor the jockey change from Jose Ortiz to Curtis. Pass.