Laurie

Ashley

1. Camp Hale (20-1)

Camp Hale was the bridesmaid in all three starts. In his first start this year at Gulfstream, the Ian Wilkes trainee stumbled slightly at the start but was used early to gain the lead. He dueled through early fractions of 23.67 and 46.14 seconds but started to lose the advantage around the 1/8 pole. Still, he finished 5 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place horse. Mo Town’s son is out of Magic Hour, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. His second dam is Affluent, a multiple Grade 1 heroine capable on turf and dirt from sprints to 1 1/8 miles. His fourth dam is the champion Bayakoa. Camp Hale earned an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating and could improve in his next outing. He has tactical speed but has been on the losing end of two speed duels. Pass.

Trained by Ian Wilkes, Camp Hale  has finished second in all three career starts. In his debut, Camp Hale dueled throughout the race, had the lead and was outkicked late. That race produced three eventual winners, including Southwest (G3) fourth-place finisher Patch Adams. Camp Hale’s second race produced four next-out winners, including winner Guns Loaded doubling up with a front-running score in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. None from the gelding’s third race, on Jan. 11, have made subsequent starts. Camp Hale earned a career high 94 Equibase speed figure in his loss to Guns Loaded, and that number dipped sharply to a 73 last out. Wilkes is 18% winners with a 40% in-the-money clip in stakes races over the last year. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Exotics.

2. Treaty of Rome (6-1)

After graduating at Aqueduct, Treaty of Rome successfully shipped to Gulfstream for the Mucho Macho man Stakes. He raced three wide the entire way, and although he briefly lost focus in the stretch, he got back into the bridle late to wear down the pacesetter Guns Loaded, but the wire came too soon. Treaty of Rome finished second by a long neck. Uncle Mo’s son is a full brother to Donna Veloce, second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Starlet, and winner of the Santa Ysabel (G3) a year later. Treaty of Rome’s second dam is the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine, Cash Run. The Chad Brown trainee’s speed ratings have improved in each start, and his 95 late-pace figure is the second highest in the Sam Davis field. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Treaty of Rome was third on debut after brushing the gate at the start. He came back to win at second asking and was most recently second by a neck in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. None from the colt’s debut race have won anything since, but Treaty of Rome’s second race produced two next-out winners. Mucho Macho Man winner Guns Loaded wilted to last in his next start, finishing 33 1/4 lengths behind the winner in the Holy Bull (G3). But fourth-place finisher Macho Music ran second in the Swale Stakes next out after dueling throughout the race. Treaty of Rome’s best speed figure is the 85 he received in his maiden breaking race, but that number dipped to a 71 in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Treaty of Rome will likely garner support at the wagering windows because of having Brown as his trainer. But the two Mucho Macho Man runners who have made subsequent starts have been up the track in a route or a well beaten second at a sprint. Dylan Davis gets the return call from the Mucho Macho Man. Exotics.

3. John Hancock (3-1)

John Hancock takes on more experienced winners after graduating at first asking at Tampa Bay Downs last month. He was fractious just before the gate opened and was a step slow but quickly took command and was under a hand ride the entire way. He galloped under the wire three lengths in front, getting six furlongs in 1:09.45 with a sharp 12.13-second final furlong. Constitution’s son is a half-brother to Speech, who set a track record in the 2020 Ashland (G1) of 1:41.26 for 1 1 1/6 miles. She was also second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She later finished second to Donna Veloce in the Santa Ysabel (G3). The Brad Cox trainee earned an 88 speed rating with a 90 late-pace figure. His post-race breeze times are similar to his pre-race ones, which is a good sign. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, John Hancock debuted a winner at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 8 in a six-furlong maiden event. With Sammy Camacho up, John Hancock rushed up to the lead and then rebroke in the stretch, drawing off to a three-length victory. He received a 94 Equibase speed figure for the effort. The two runners from that field who have made subsequent starts both finished off the board in their next race. Cox is 35% winners with a 64% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners. Flavien Prat will have the mount in place of Camancho, and Prat and Cox are winning together at a 39% clip with a 68% in-the-money rate. Contender.

4. Dr Ruben M (12-1)

After a trio of tries, Dr Ruben M found a field of maidens to beat in his fourth try. So far, one rival has won, and the rest are still hunting for the elusive maiden victory. Doug O’Neil shipped Dr Ruben M to Remmington two months later for a shot at the Springboard Mile. After eyeballing Speed King around the turn, Dr Ruben M shortened stride while running on his left lead. He finished fourth, bested 7 1/4 lengths. Vino Rosso’s son is out of Xoxo, who was third in the 2015 Santa Ynez (G2). The extended family includes Forego (G1) hero Mullikin. Dr Ruben M will add to the speed contingent and might hang around for a piece, but I’ll pass.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Dr Ruben M began his career on the turf, losing his debut by a nose to Tiz Happy, who since completed the superfecta in the Best Pal (G3) and Speakeasy Stakes while failing to hit the board in his other three starts. Dr Ruben M was then fifth behind Best Pal (G3) hero Getaway Car and second to Emerald Bay, who finished fourth in the American Pharoah (G1) next out. Dr Ruben M found the winner’s circle in his fourth start, beating a field that had been following Bob Baffert trainees around the track. The only winner from that race was a victor on the turf. The Vino Rosso colt wrapped up his juvenile campaign with a fourth place effort in the Remington Springboard Mile. Coal Battle and Speed King, the one-two finishers of the Springboard Mile, came back to win the Smarty Jones and the Southwest (G3), respectively. O’Neill is 23% winners with a 47% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a one- to two-month layoff, and Dr Ruben M’s best Equibase speed figure is an 88. Junior Alvarado takes the reins from regular rider Edwin Maldonado, who will not make the trip east. Pass.

5. Gateskeeper (30-1)

Still a maiden, Gateskeeper ships in from Oaklawn after being embarrassed by six lengths in a high-priced optional-claiming maiden event. By second-crop sire Instagrand, Gateskeeper is out of the unraced Distorted Humor mare, Tenation. The extended family includes Heavenly Sunday, a multiple-graded winner at 1 1/16 miles. The Jade Cunningham trainee’s Brisnet ratings are in the 70s, and he needs considerable improvement to be a factor. Pass.

Trained by Jade Cunningham, Gateskeeper is still a maiden after two starts, both at Oaklawn. In his first start, Gateskeeper finished second by a neck, and he then was third in a high level maiden optional claimer event. Cunningham has less than 100 starts in her short career and has sent out two runners in four total stakes races with a 0% across-the-board finish. David Cohen takes over from Francisco Arrieta. Pass.

6. Owen Almighty (2-1)

The only time Owen Almighty didn’t cross the finish line first was when he stretched to a mile in the Iroquois (G3). He didn’t contest the lead there, but he still gained ground in the stretch. In his first start of the season in the seven-furlong Pasco, the Brian Lynch trainee lugged in on the first turn and wiped out Rookie Card, causing him to steady. Owen Almighty was disqualified to fifth for the interference. Owen Almighty had plenty in the tank and was under a hand ride when he got the best of runner-up Naughty Rascal by a length. That one earned the winner’s share of the Pasco. Owen Almighty earned a 90 speed rating and can improve off the effort. By Speightstown, Owen Almighty is the first foal out of the Grade 2 winner Tempers Rising, who won or placed up to 1 1/8 miles. The dam is half to a stakes-winning sprinter, and there is little black type in the third generation of the distaff line. The $250,000 question is whether he can carry his speed two turns. Exotics. 

Trained by Brian Lynch, Owen Almighty is a disqualification away from never having been out of the exacta in his career. The colt won his first two starts, including the Ellis Park Juvenile, before finishing second in the Iroquois (G3) to complete his juvenile campaign. He kicked off his sophomore campaign in the Pasco Stakes, crossing the line in first but being disqualified to fifth after wiping out Rookie Card on the backstretch. It looked like Owen Almighty and Irad Ortiz Jr. didn’t even see Rookie Card coming up their inside as Owen Almighty’s head was cocked to the outside while engaging with Naughty Rascal. Despite the contact and quick splits, Owen Almighty still easily dispatched Naughty Rascal in the stretch. Lynch will try blinkers on his stakes-winning colt but is 0% wins with a 33% in-the-money clip both with blinkers on and first-time blinkers over the last year, according to Race Lens. Owen Almighty’s career best Equibase speed figure is 96, and he has received below a 95 only once. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return call. Contender.

7. Poster (4-1)

Undefeated Poster returns after proving he’s just as capable on dirt as on turf. He prevailed in an exciting edition of the Remsen (G2). After establishing a clear lead in the stretch, he was a little unfocused but jumped back into the bridle to hold off his rival by a nose. Poster completed 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.37, with a strong 12.60-second final furlong, and earned a career-best 92 speed rating and a 102 late-pace figure, the highest in the Sam Davis field. Munnings’s son is out of Tapit’s daughter Pin Up, a half-sister to the champion and sire, Bernardini. Eoin Harty gave Poster a pre-race bullet five-furlong breeze at Tampa Bay in 1:01.60. Contender.

Trained by Eoin Harty, Poster successfully transferred from turf to dirt to remain undefeated when holding on to win the Remsen (G2) by a nose. He received a field- and career-best 97 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Poster is the only entrant in the race cutting back in distance and is one of only three in the field who is making his 2025 bow. Harty is 21% wins and 46% in the money with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Antonio Gallardo takes over from Flavien Prat. Contender.

8. Naughty Rascal (6-1)

Naughty Rascal has won or placed in all six starts, five of them stakes. He was all out in the Pasco but wasn’t going to pass Owen Almighty, although he benefited from that one’s disqualification. Naughty Rascal completed seven furlongs in 1:22.50 with a slow 13.39-second final furlong. By Into Mischief’s son Rogueish, who captured his only start, Naughty Rascal is half to the multiple stakes placed sprinter Awesome Anywhere. Their dam is half to the stakes-winning turf miler Prize Doll. The Gerald Bennett trainee earned an 89 speed rating, but his 79 late pace figure isn’t encouraging. Exotics.

Trained by Gerald Bennett, Florida star Naughty Rascal never has finished worse than third in his career and was awarded the Pasco Stakes win after Owen Almighty was disqualified. He had every opportunity to win on his own merit, but Owen Almighty was just too good. The son of Rogueish is about as versatile as they come, however, owning wins in the slop, on turf and over fast dirt. He is 2: 1-0-1 around two turns with his victory coming in the Armed Forces Stakes on turf at Gulfstream Park. Bennett is 27% wins with a 45% in-the-money rate in stakes races over the last year, and Naughty Rascal has a career-high 95 Equibase speed figure. Edwin Gonzalez has the return call from the Pasco. Exotics.

9. Smoken Boy (20-1)

An invader from Puerto Rico, Smoken Boy captured the 1 1/16-mile, Group 1 Clasico Agustin Mercado Reveron Stakes by 9 1/4 lengths in his last start. The pretty gray colt settled in near the back of the pack through early fractions of 24.40 and 47.77 seconds. He was let loose around the far turn and inhaled rivals through six furlongs in 1:11.95. Despite a commanding lead, Smoken Boy was encouraged and shied from the crop in mid-stretch but straightened out and cruised under the wire, getting 1 1/16 miles in 1:45. Catholic Boy’s son is out of the multiple stakes-placed sprinter Smoken Deb. The extended family includes the graded winning sprinter-milers Pass the Champagne and Miss Kentucky. Now conditioned by Jose D’Angelo, Smoken Boy has a series of four- and five-furlong breezes at Palm Meadows, including a five-furlong move in 1:01.75 on Jan. 25 in company with the 4-year-old maiden Hop Sing. Neither was asked down the lane. D’Angelo and Paco Lopez captured last year’s Sam Davis with No More Time. Long-shot bomb.

Now in the care of Jose Francisco D’Angelo, Smoken Boy will make his 2025 bow and stateside debut in the Sam F. Davis. The son of Catholic Boy is a Group 1 winner in Puerto Rico, having won the Clasico Agustin Mercado Reveron by 9 1/4 lengths to close out his juvenile campaign. Aside from shying from the crop, it was a visually pleasing performance, but the 53 Equibase speed figure he received leaves a lot to be desired. D’Angelo is 7% wins with a 47% in-the-money rate with runners first off a trainer switch in the last five years, according to Race Lens, but Puerto Rico runners don’t typically run as well in the continental states as they do at their home track. D’Angelo is also adding blinkers to Smoken Boy’s equipment and is 6% wins with a 31% in-the-money clip with first-time blinkers and 19% with a 46% in-the-money rate overall with blinkers. Paco Lopez has the call. Pass.

10. Very Bold (20-1)

The highlight of Very Bold’s career was a 4 1/2-length victory against maidens over a sloppy Churchill track. Otherwise, he’s never been closer than 2 1/2 lengths. He finished a very distant third, bested 5 1/2 lengths, in the Pasco and earned a middling 82 speed rating. Union Rags’s son is out of the unraced Candy Ride mare Sweet Revenge. She’s a full sister to Cedartown, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Her half-brother is a multiple Grade 2 winner and sire, Danzig Candy. The Eoin Harty trainee recorded a pre-race bullet five-furlong move in 1:00. He may improve with distance but hasn’t shown the class to run with this group. Pass.

Also from the Eoin Harty barn, Very Bold is 5: 1-1-1 lifetime. Aside from his lone win, Very Bold’s claim to fame is being awarded second place in the Pasco Stakes after crossing the wire a well beaten third. Both off-the board-starts came on turf or Tapeta, and the colt’s sole win was in the slop. His best speed figure is the 86 he earned when getting his picture taken. Jesus Castanon retains the mount. Pass.

           Laurie

           Ashley

7. Poster (4-1)

7. Poster (4-1)

2. Treaty of Rome (6-1)

6. Owen Almighty (2-1)

6. Owen Almighty (2-1)

3. John Hancock (2-1)

9. Smoken Boy (20-1)

1. Camp Hale (20-1)