Laurie

Ashley

1. Innovator (10-1)

After a couple of near-misses, Innovator visited the winner’s circle in his seventh start in a maiden event over Oaklawn’s sloppy track. He’s been off the board only twice in seven starts, with excuses both times. Innovator completed six furlongs in a sharp 1:09.81, with a strong 12.36-second final furlong, yet received only a 78 Brisnet rating. The Wayne Lukas trainee returned with a five-furlong bullet 59.60 at Oaklawn in company with the maiden Wise Decision. Innovator was all business with pinned ears yet moved comfortably without being asked.

By no. 7 first-crop sire Authentic, Innovator is out of the multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Inspired, a daughter of Unbridled’s Song, so he should enjoy stretching out in distance. Innovator’s half-brother Carmel Road placed in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and half-sister Night Time Lady is a stakes-placed turf miler. Another half-sister bore Preakness and Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) hero National Treasure.

Innovator has speed from the rail, and once he loses the lead, that’s it. I’d like him if he was lone speed. Pass.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Innovator is a last-out maiden winner, finally finding the winner’s circle in his seventh start. He finished second in four of those races and has kept tough company. His debut race was won by Iroquois (G3) runner-up Owen Almighty, who most recently won the Pasco but was disqualified to fifth. His second race was won by stakes winner Tough Catch, his third by graded-stakes-placed Sandman, and his fourth, the Hopeful (G1), by multiple Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick. Starts five and six featured Barnes and Kale’s Angel, respectively. Barnes just won the San Vicente (G2) easily, and Kale’s Angel was third in the Smarty Jones. None from Innovator’s maiden-breaking race have made subsequent starts, but the son of Authentic received a field and career-best 101 Equibase speed figure for the effort. This will be Innovator’s first attempt at a route, and Lukas is 10% wins with a 35% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners over the last year, according to Race Lens. Jaime Torres, who has ridden the colt a couple times in the past, has the call. Exotics.

2. Maximum Promise (10-1)

After a reasonable effort in his turf debut, where he closed to finish fifth, Maximum Promise switched surfaces and running styles and demolished maidens at Ellis Park in August by 14 1/2 lengths. He was hand urged through the upper stretch by Brian Hernandez Jr. but coasted a mile in 1:37 with a blazing 12.05-second final furlong. He earned a reasonable 87 Brisnet rating with a 98 late-pace figure, the second-highest in the Lecomte field. Ken McPeek shipped Maximum Promise to Fair Grounds last November, and the colt has been breezing consistently.

By first-crop sire Maximum Security, Maximum Promise is out of an unraced Scat Daddy mare. The major class of the family is international in the third generation and includes a two-time European champion turf horse, High Chaparral.

Although Maximum Promise won while setting the pace, he closed in his debut, so he may have tactical speed. He was professional in his second start, but this is a tough spot for his first start off the layoff with only two races under his girth. Pass.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Maximum Promise debuted on the turf, closing to finish fifth. He was switched to dirt for his second start and took that mile race gate to wire, drawing off to win by 14 1/2 lengths. Two from that field were next-out winners, but aside from that, what Maximum Promise beat that day is nothing to write home about. The colt received a 77 Equibase speed figure but has not raced since. He enters this spot off a 5 1/2-month layoff, and McPeek is 19% winners with a 42% in-the-money clip with runners racing off a two- to six-month layoff, according to Race Lens. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return call. Pass.

3. Admiral Dennis (8-1)

Admiral Dennis is also entered in an optional-claiming allowance event on Monday. Draw a line through his performance in the Gun Runner. He faceplanted at the start, had to steady slightly between rivals on the backstretch, and then went wide around the turn. He was a tired, drifting horse in the stretch. The Brad Cox charge was used as the rabbit in his last three breezes, including a pre-race work with Disco Time. Admiral Dennis is a steady, workmanlike mover but couldn’t keep up with Disco Time.

By Constitution, Admiral Dennis is out of Gulf Cost, a stakes-winning miler daughter of Union Rags. Admiral Dennis’s second and third dams are stakes-placed milers and his fourth dam is the superior mare, Weekend Surprise, dam of A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, and her descendants have shaped racing. Pass.

Trained by Brad Cox, Admiral Dennis was third on debut, missing the win by just two lengths after having to check in traffic in the upper stretch. He bounced back to win at second asking in a mile maiden event before finishing fourth in the Gun Runner Stakes as the odds-on favorite, 16 1/2 lengths behind winner Built. The son of Constitution put in a bid on the far turn after stumbling at the start and trailing early. That bid fell flat, however, as Built had cruised through uncontested pedestrian splits. When it became clear that Built was much the best, jockey Luis Saez let the colt gallop home. Admiral Dennis is certainly better than he showed in the Gun Runner and could factor in here if he runs. Cox has him cross-entered in an optional claimer Monday. Joel Rosario takes over from Saez. Exotics.

4. Magnitude (6-1)

Magnitude pressed Built in the Gun Runner Stakes while under a tight hold early. He made a run at him at the half-mile pole but couldn’t keep up. His Brisnet rating remained steady at 86, the same number he received in his previous start. In his favor, the Steve Asmussen trainee fired two pre-race bullets for the Lecomte. His second-to-last breeze was five furlongs in 1:00.60 in company with multiple graded-placed Tiztatic. Magnitude was pushed to keep up with and pass his mate but stayed a determined neck behind.

By Not This Time, Magnitude’s second dam, Octave, captured the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks, both Grade 1s, and among Octave’s many accomplishments, she was second in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks.

Magnitude might be in the early fray. Exotics.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude was most recently second in the Gun Runner Stakes, finishing 6 3/4 lengths behind winner Built. Magnitude tracked Built from second throughout the race but could not keep pace as that one easily skipped away turning for home. Jockey Jose Ortiz let Jareth Loveberry and Built get away with an unpressured lead, but Magnitude drew a much better post than Built for this race, giving him a good opportunity to turn the tables in the Lecomte. Ortiz gets the return call. Contender.

5. Optical (20-1)

Optical scratched from the Smarty Jones Stakes. In his last start before the Smarty Jones, he stayed in the clear on the outside. He came in and bumped slightly in the stretch, which unfocused him slightly before getting back on track. The Keith Desormeaux trainee gutted out a three-way decision by a bare head over Thorpedo Anna’s half-brother McAfee and Moral. Optical completed a mile in a decent 1:35.66 with a 12.82-second final furlong, which earned him an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating. 

By City of Light Optical is out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare, Espressoandacheck. His second dam, Daring Dancer, is a multiple graded turf miler. The extended female family includes multiple Grade 1 winning turf router Ticker Tape.

Optical should love the extra distance, and although he’s making his first start off the layoff, he has seven starts to his credit, plus some bullet works. He gets blinkers to help him focus, and with his tactical speed and tenacious manner, I see Optical as a live long shot.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Optical was scratched from the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this month. He was pegged as a 12-1 outsider for that race and will likely go off at longer odds here. It took Optical four attempts to break his maiden. He was fourth in his debut on dirt before then ran eighth and fourth on the turf in his second and third starts. In his fourth start, jockey James Graham put the colt on the lead and that was all she wrote. Optical scampered off to a 14-length victory in that mile affair on dirt. That race, which had a field of 11, has produced only two winners, and both dropped into the maiden claiming ranks with one switching to turf before getting their picture taken. Optical made his stakes debut in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) but was pulled up and walked off midway through the race. In his most recent two starts, Optical faced starter company, running third and then winning his Lecomte tune up. Desormeaux is just 7% wins with a 30% in the money rate in stakes races over the past year, according to Race Lens. Desormeaux will add blinkers for Optical’s Lecomte run; he’s 25% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate with first-time blinkers and blinkers on over the last year. James Graham has the call. Pass.

6. Golden Afternoon (20-1)

Golden Afternoon is the Lecomte mystery horse. He’s untested on dirt and is the first starter for his young trainer, Nicholas Vaccarezza, who takes the reins from his dad, Carlo. The Bourbon (G2) runner-up’s Brisnet ratings are in the mid-80s, but on a positive note, he has experience in large fields and can track the pace. In his last start, an optional-claiming allowance, Golden Afternoon prevailed by a half-length in an extended battle through the stretch, so we know he’s determined. Golden Afternoon had a five-furlong dirt breeze in 1:01.4 two weeks ago in company. He relaxed and showed good energy in the first part of the work, yet he wasn’t as smooth through the lane as he didn’t lower his head. Golden Afternoon outworked his mate without being asked and seemed to handle the dirt, switching leads correctly and without excess leg motion.

By Goldencents, Golden Afternoon is the first foal out of a daughter of Street Cry, and his second dam is a Grade 1 winning turf mare, Acoma. Acoma’s half-brother is prominent sire Arch, and 2019 champion 3-year-old filly and champion female sprinter Covfefe is part of the family. The primary concern with Golden Afternoon is how he’ll handle the kickback, not the surface. If Golden Afternoon wins the Lecomte, it would be a wonderful headline, and the pretty gray colt is worth a long-shot look.

Golden Afternoon will be the first-ever starter for Nicholas Vaccarezza when he enters the Fair Grounds starting gate on Saturday. The son of Goldencents was previously trained by Nicholas’s father Carlo and will be making his first start on dirt. Golden Afternoon scampered to a 3: 2-1-0 record on turf, including a runner-up effort in the Bourbon Stakes (G2). With nothing to go off of, I look to Carlo Vaccarezza’s recent stats to gain some insight into this gelding’s chances. Last year, Carlo was 32: 9-6-5 with dirt starters with Golden Afternoon’s run in the Bourbon Stakes as Carlo’s solo graded stakes attempt. Further research shows that Golden Afternoon’s dam has no other starters. Axel Concepcion has the return call. Exotics.

7. Calling Card (12-1)

Calling Card successfully switched to dirt in his third start, dominating a suspect herd of state-bred maidens at Aqueduct in November. So far, that field is on their way to being career maidens. The Mike Maker trainee checked in a well-beaten seventh against winners at Oaklawn in his next start, earning an 82 Brisnet rating. Calling Card had two pre-race five-furlong works, including his most recent breeze in 1:00.80 in company with maiden winner Boss of All Bosses. Both were hand-urged and even down the stretch.

By Complexity, Calling Card’s dam Graceful Rage is a half to multiple graded placed sprinter-miler Tip Tap Tapizar. Grade 1 heroes Mucho Gusto, Peaks and Valleys and Higher Power are part of the family. Calling Card needs considerable improvement to beat this field. Pass.

Trained by Mike Maker, Calling Card has one win from four career starts. The colt began his career on the lawn, running fifth and then second in New York bred company. Maker then switched him to dirt, and the result was a 17 1/4-length romp in a one-mile maiden event for statebreds. None from that race have found the winner’s circle. Calling Card then faced open company at Oaklawn, running third in an optional claimer on Dec. 13 that was won by Grade 3-placed Sandman. Frankie Dettori, the colt’s fifth jockey in as many starts, has the call. Pass.

8. Tough Catch (10-1)

Tough Catch had minor trouble in the Bowman Mill Stakes, switching lanes and altering out in late stretch. He still closed to within a half-length of the winner. Next out in the Ed Brown Stakes, Tough Catch broke a step slow from the rail, was rushed into contention and had to steady behind the pacesetter. Boxed in for much of the race, he had to alter course to the outside. Once he saw daylight, Tough Catch steadily progressed but ran out of real estate, 5 1/4 lengths behind the winner. But he was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Reverting to pacesetting tactics when reunited with Luis Saez, Tough Catch captured the six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes by a length in 1:10.48 with a 12.51-second final furlong. He was all out to hold off the runner-up and earned a 90 Brisnet rating.

Also by Complexity, Tough Catch’s half-sister, Unique Factor, is a stakes-winning sprinter. Their second dam is Grade 1 heroine See How She Runs, capable from sprints to 1 1/8 miles.

The Dallas Stewart trainee has the tactical advantage in a speed-filled race. Contender.

Trained by Dallas Stewart, Tough Catch enters off a length victory in the Sugar Bowl Stakes. Prior to that, he was second in both the Bowman Mill and the Ed Brown Stakes. Tough Catch was a debut winner who ran eighth in the Hopeful (G1) in his second start after getting bumped at the break and putting in a bid that flattened out. Tough Catch’s debut race produced two next-out winners, one of which Grade 3 placed on turf and the other stakes placed on turf. He has never attempted a route, and Stewart is 4% winners with a 20% in-the-money rate with sprint to route runners over the last year, according to Race Lens. Stewart is also only 5% winners with a 15% in-the-money clip in graded stakes during that same time frame. Luis Saez has the return call from the Sugar Bowl. Pass.

9. Dapper Moon (12-1)

Dapper Moon graduated in his second start with an eye-catching five-length win over eventual stakes winner Guns Loaded. He disappointed in three graded stakes, beaten a combined 23 1/4 lengths before cutting back to six furlongs against state-bred company at Fair Grounds.

By Malibu Moon, Dapper Moon doesn’t have black type in the first generation of his distaff line. Still, there’s plenty of black type in the second and third generations of Dapper Moon’s distaff line, including Alcibiades (G1) heroine My Conquestadory and the brilliant multiple-graded winning sprinter Kelly Kip, who set three track records during his 31-race career. Despite a two-turn pedigree, Dapper Moon hasn’t shown capability beyond sprints or against stakes company. Pass.

Also from the Dallas Stewart barn, Dapper Moon won an allowance race for Louisiana-breds last out. In his previous three starts, he was fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Street Sense (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Dapper Moon was fractious and off slow in his debut but closed to get second before winning by five lengths in his second outing. Incentive Pay, the winner of Dapper Moon’s debut race, was third in the Hopeful (G1) in his only other start. Breeders’ Futurity third-place finisher Filoso also exited that race. Dapper Moon’s maiden-breaking race produced Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Guns Loaded plus two others who found the winner’s circle after dropping into the maiden claiming ranks. This colt faded in all three of his previous attempts around two turns but still managed to fill out the superfecta. I could see him doing the same here. Edgar Morales takes over from Brian Hernandez Jr. Exotics.

10. Mobetterthangood (20-1)

Mobetterthangood was a debut winner by a length at Saratoga. But only two of six returning rivals eventually won, so the class of the race is suspect.

By Mo Town, most of the black type in this family is in the third generation and includes Grade 3-winning turf horse Derby Kitten and the third dam Cherry Jubilee, who set a stakes record in the 1 3/16-mile Next Move Handicap (G3). 

Although the Ken McPeek trainee has been breezing regularly at Fair Grounds, winning his first start against winners in stakes company is a tall order. Pass.

Entrant two from the Kenny McPeek barn, Mobetterthangood is a maiden winner. In his only career start, Mobetterthangood closed from the back of the field to win a New York-bred maiden event at Saratoga on Sept. 2. That race has produced nothing of consequence, and the colt earned just a 79 Equibase speed figure for the effort. McPeek is 19% winners with a 42% in-the-money rate with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff and 13% winners with a 28% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners. Colby Hernandez takes over from Kendrick Carmouche. Pass.

11. Disco Time (9-2)

Disco Time grooved his way to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle in both starts, a combined 7 1/4 lengths in front of rivals. Disco Time pressed the pace in his first start and was in tight on the rail while facing challengers in his second start. He turned back all comers and was hand urged through late stretch in both starts. In his last start against allowance optional claimers, Disco Time stopped the clock in 1:34.98 for a mile, with a 12.80-second   final furlong, and his Brisnet rating improved to 92. It’s hard to say what Disco Time beat since none of his rivals have won subsequent starts, although a couple finished second.

The Brad Cox trainee had a pre-race five-furlong work in 1:02 in company with Admiral Dennis. Disco Time turned his head through the early stages of the work in his usual style while he flanked his mate. Disco Time drew even by the 1/8 pole, picked up steam and rolled by without being asked. Admiral Dennis was pushed near the wire to keep up.

By Not This Time Disco Time’s dam is multiple stakes-winning sprinter Disco Chick.

This Juddmonte homebred can press or set the pace and may sit further back if asked. It’s hard to argue with perfection. Contender.

The second half of Brad Cox’s entries, Disco Time is undefeated in two career starts. He was favored in both starts and won his seven-furlong debut by 3 3/4 lengths and his mile-long second race by 3 1/2 lengths. The Juddmonte homebred’s speed figures improved from his first to second start, jumping from an 89 to a 96, tied for fourth best in this field. Regular rider Florent Geroux will be in the irons. Contender.

12. Jolly Samurai (20-1)

Jolly Samurai was undefeated in his first three starts sprinting at Remington Park, then closed for fifth place while racing five-wide in the Remington Springboard Mile, missing fourth place by a neck. The Danny Pish trainee’s speed ratings are in the low 80s.

By First Samurai, the black type in Jolly Samurai second generation includes graded-winning sprinter-milers Change Up, her daughter Pinch Hit and second dam Round Robin.

Jolly Samurai is facing a stronger field than in the Springboard Mile and needs improvement to be a threat. Perhaps he can close for a minor award, but I’ll pass.

Trained by Danny Pish, Jolly Samurai rattled off three straight victories at Remington Park to begin his career before finishing fifth in the Springboard Mile. His victories include the Kip Deville and Clever Trevor Stakes, both sprints. Jolly Samurai posted a career-best 83 Equibase speed figure when finishing off the board in the Springboard Mile. Pish has never won a graded-stakes race and is 0% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Regular rider Rene Diaz also has never won a graded stakes race but has finished in the money once in three starts in the last five years. Pass.

13. Built (3-1)

Built had a paid workout in the Gun Runner Stakes, galloping home 6 3/4 lengths over Magnitude. He had it his own way through fractions of 24.64, 49.23, 1:13.77, 1:37.27 and completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.53, with a 6.26-second final half-furlong, yet he earned a 94 Brisnet rating and his 106 late-pace figure, tops in the Lecomte field. Wayne Catalano kept the bay colt on his usual routine of a four-furlong move followed by a five-furlong one.

By Hard Spun, Built is the first foal out of Curlin’s daughter Sea Garden. Sea Garden’s half-brother Glenville Gardens is a Grade 2-winning turf sprinter in Canada. Built’s third dam is Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley Vale, and the family includes Indian Vale, a multiple Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles.

The concern for Built is the outside post with speed to his inside, but he flashed quick early speed in his second race. Built is constructed to love classic distances and should be fit from his stamina-building morning work program. Contender.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Built enters the Lecomte off a victory in the Gun Runner Stakes. It was a career-best effort with a 95 Equibase speed figure. Although his speed figures have improved with each start, Built did get a perfect setup in the Gun Runner. Breaking from the rail, he was able to set an easy, uncontested pace before drawing off to a 6 3/4-length victory. With the far outside draw, he won’t get that same trip. Jockey Jareth Loveberry might have to use him early to get a good racing position. Fortunately, Built isn’t a need-the-lead type. Contender.

14. Seattle Road (20-1)

A late-maturing type, Seattle Road exhibited gradual improvement in each start,   which paved his way to the winner’s circle in his fourth attempt against a full field of maidens at the Fair Grounds, winning by a head. Seattle Road traveled 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.71 with a 7.10 final half-furlong. The Tom Amoss trainee’s speed ratings are in the low 80s, and his pace figures in his last race were even from start to finish, indicating a one-paced type.

By Quality Road, Seattle Road is out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare, Seattle Slang. His second dam, Seattle Smooth, was a Grade 1 and multiple Grade 2 winner who was capable from sprints to 1 1/8 miles.

Seattle Road is a one-run closer who won’t mind the far outside post. He has a shot of earning a check if a speed duel develops, and he can bulldoze past tired runners, but I’m not taking the road less traveled. Pass.

Trained by Thomas Amoss, Seattle Road is a last-out maiden winner. The son of Quality Road debuted on turf but moved to dirt for his second start, where he finished sixth behind winner and Gun Runner Stakes third-place finisher Render Judgment. Since shipping into Fair Grounds, Seattle Road is 2: 1-1-0. He speed figures have improved with each start culminating with an 82 last out. As a confirmed closer, this colt shouldn’t have an issue with drawing the far outside post, but I don’t think he’s a good fit here. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. has the return call. Pass.