Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks were the surprise of the NBA Cup winning their group and upsetting the New York Knicks to make the semifinals in the East.

While they were knocked out by the Milwaukee Bucks, the Hawks have shown they can compete for a playoff spot this season.

Now, they take on Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, who are fighting for a spot in the Western Conference playoff picture.

At 13-13, the Spurs sit in the No. 11 spot ahead of Thursday’s contest.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and a prediction for this matchup.  

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Moneyline

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Hawks Injury Report

Spurs Injury Report

Atlanta Hawks Best NBA Prop Bets

Johnson has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in four straight games heading into this matchup, and he’s averaging 10.1 rebounds per game on the season.

The former first-round pick has cleared this prop in 14 of his 25 games this season, and the Spurs rank 19th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game. I think Johnson flirts with a double-double again on Thursday. 

San Antonio Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

So far this season, Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.8 points per game and he’s cleared 14.5 points just seven times in 26 appearances.

While he’s certainly formed a major role in the Spurs rotation, I think this points total may be a little lofty due to him scoring 19 and 30 points in two of his last four games. Champagnie should play plenty of minutes, but I’ll side with history so far this season when it comes to this prop. 

I think the Spurs may be undervalued in this matchup as the odds opened as a pick’em before moving towards San Antonio with Oneyka Okongwu out. The Spurs are a better at home this season, where they are games over .500.

San Antonio and Atlanta are No. 17 and No. 18 in the NBA in net rating this season, but the Spurs are much closer to positive in their net rating (-0.4) at home. 

I do think that the Spurs can pose a defensive issue for the Hawks, who aren’t a great shooting team (22nd in effective field goal percentage) and now have to deal with Wemby protecting the cup. 

Atlanta certainly deserves a lot of love for its strong start to the 2024-25 season, but I don’t think it should be close to a road favorite against a team that is on a similar trajectory so far this season. 

Pick: Spurs Moneyline (-122)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.