A stronger-than-expected September jobs report has made a U.S. recession less likely, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote.
The bank on Sunday cut its 12-month recession odds to 15%, a level it calls the “unconditional long-term average.” The odds previously were raised above 15% when the unemployment rate rose above 4.2% in July.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, an acceleration from the upwardly revised 159,000 in August and the most since March, while the unemployment rate edged down to below 4.1% from 4.2%.
A declining unemployment rate matters because it avoids triggering the conditions of the “Sahm Rule,” an early stage recession indicator that is signaled when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is half-percentage point or more above the lowest three-month moving average unemployment rate over the previous 12 months.
“The data have spoken,” Goldman analysts wrote. “…The upshot is that the fundamental upward pressure on the unemployment rate may have ended via a combination of stronger labor demand growth and weaker labor supply growth (because of slowing immigration).”
Goldman also recently raised its forecasts for the S&P 500 index. The bank lifted its three-month target to 6,000 points from 5,600 and its 12-month target to 6,300 from 6,000. The targets would mean growth of 4.3% and 9.5%, respectively, from the S&P 500’s Friday closing level of 5,751.
Stellantis: The automaker's history, legacyExplore the history of Stellantis, the automotive giant formed in 2021 through the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobile
What’s going on here?The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield topped 4% after strong jobs data shook market expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve might
RAPID CITY, S.D. (KOTA) - The South Dakota Community Foundation strives to make the Black Hills a better place through grants that fund organizations that other
Companies are required by federal law to notify the government of mass layoffs at least 60 days in advance.Laid off positions include analysts, brokers, softwar